On Oct. 31, USC football proved they could win on any given Saturday. That doesn’t mean they will.
USC’s blowout loss, 24-7, at Wisconsin a week before felt like a requiem for head coach Lincoln Riley, but, in college football, everything is subject to change.
The Trojans’ 30-18 upset over No. 11 Ohio State Saturday catapulted USC back into the Playoff picture, rescuing a program that seemed positioned for a nosedive. But, their path to complete turnaround isn’t getting any easier.
Tuesday, the College Football Playoff (CFP) Committee unveiled their inaugural rankings of the year. The Trojans slotted in at No. 20, making USC the fifth highest-ranked Big Ten squad and the 10th highest-ranked team with two losses.
Alabama sits chief among these two-loss squads at No. 5, the highest debut CFP ranking for a two-loss team in the Playoff’s twelve-year history. Strange as it may seem, the Crimson Tide’s ambitious ranking is emblematic of college football’s volatility this year.
The Tide, like a host of two-loss contenders, balance their subpar performances with a marquee win. In Alabama’s case, a September 45-17 rout of now No. 6 Kentucky is offsetting a pair of October losses.
Last week, USC joined this increasingly large class of college football teams with two abysmal losses and an impressive win. The intra-competitiveness of this season makes it nearly impossible to flesh out bonafide contenders.
College football is especially cannibalistic this year and with 25 teams in realistic contention, the Playoff is for the taking.
CFP Committee Chair Hunter Yurachek told ESPN this week that he expects more shakeup as the final bracket takes shape.
“This has been such a crazy football season filled with unbelievable parity through the first eight weeks. There’s a number of football games still left to be played. You just look at the matchups coming this weekend. We still believe as a committee there’s going to be a significant amount of movement within the entire Top 25 ranking,” Yurachek said.
That’s why there is no sense in splitting hairs about USC’s position. For all intents and purposes, the Trojans control their postseason destiny.
According to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, if USC wins out and misses the Big Ten title game, they have a 97% chance to notch a Playoff berth. In fact, in that scenario, the Trojans have a 62% chance to host a first-round contest and a 25% chance to secure a bye.
In the same scenario, it is actually advantageous for USC to miss the Big Ten Championship. With an appearance and a loss, their chances fall to 79% to score a seat and remain at 62% to host. Either way, wins over Indiana, Maryland and UCLA would almost certainly save a Playoff run that seemed foregone just a week ago.
Although, it’s important to not get ahead. Right now, USC’s odds sit at 15%. If the Trojans want to stay the course into December, it’s on them.
USC has already totaled its allotted losses for the year if it wants to compete for a national title. Missteps against any of their three remaining opponents, including trips to No. 4 Indiana and No. 8 UCLA, would preclude the Trojans from the field.
“Look at all the craziness across the country. The teams that just hang in there, keep going, get better, stay together are going to be the ones that are there in the end,” Riley said after Saturday’s victory. “That’s the nature. You play a schedule like ours, a lot of phenomenal challenges, but a lot of phenomenal opportunities. And, so, we’ve got to keep rising together.”.
But now, the victory over Ohio State afforded the Trojans something hard to come by in the last two decades: hope.
Still, it’s no secret that the Trojans have struggled mightily in their execution and consistency this year, but a promise of young talent has been a saving grace for a shoddy USC and its stumbling head coach.
Hope and promise can’t sustain the support of one of college football’s premiere programs’ fanbases forever, especially not while their in-town arch rival cruises to a 8-0 start with a first-year head man, but beating Ohio State finally vindicated USC.
Now, there is concrete proof that USC can go toe-to-toe with college football’s upper echelon, but the job is far from finished. The next few weeks will be key not only for USC’s CFP hopes, but also for Riley.
If Riley and his staff play their cards right, the Ohio State win could catalyze a sea-change for the Trojans. If they don’t, the victory becomes an insular fluke and concern over Riley’s job may fire back up.
“We’re playing arguably the best conference in America and…every week [is] a battle. What you did last week doesn’t matter. What you do next week doesn’t matter…every game is its own season,” Riley said Saturday.
USC’s first win over an AP top five team since 2015 means nothing if the Trojans can’t spin the victory into something special. The difference now is that USC is in the driver’s seat.
Edited by Sammie Vassallo and Adriana Brady