Usually, there are multiple ways for a fanbase to digest a loss. With the relatively new 12-team College Football Playoff format, a midseason misstep doesn’t always feel devastating. That was not the case for USC this weekend. The Badgers’ slow drubbing of the Trojans was demoralizing and, effectively, season-ending.
In the offseason, fans may not have pinned USC’s mid-October trip to Madison as a marquee game, but it arrived at a pivotal moment in the Trojans’ campaign for a CFP bid. Slated alongside consecutive outings against Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana, the matchup was a must-win if the Trojans wanted to remain in realistic postseason contention. Considering their impending schedule, the 24-7 loss will almost certainly preclude USC from the Playoff.
The Trojans looked rusty from the jump. Senior quarterback Jayden Maiava, specifically, sputtered early. A contested deep shot to freshman wideout Ethan Feaster handed the Badgers their first interception of the game. On USC’s next offensive drive, Maiava floated an ill-fated ball midfield, where it was snagged by Wisconsin senior safety Cairo Skanes. The throw was the quarterback’s second inadvisable shot, an unusual outing for the Big Ten’s leading passer.
In an inverse of USC’s typical dynamic, the Trojans’ defense bailed out a flailing offense on more than one occasion. After both of Maiava’s flubs, USC managed to hold Wisconsin to a field goal in the first quarter, one of which sailed wide right. While defensive coordinator Gary Patterson’s unit kept the Trojans competitive in the first half, they couldn’t keep pace with Wisconsin’s talented offensive line. USC was scoreless in the second half.
The Badgers chipped away at USC’s bend-don’t-break defense, posting two touchdowns in the game’s back half, enough to trump the Trojans’ lackluster offensive showing.
Ultimately, the Badgers were more physical on both sides of the ball. Wisconsin’s front seven had their way with USC’s offensive line, disarming Maiava’s typical poise. The Trojans managed just 258 yards and one touchdown against two interceptions.
Maiava has been an invaluable asset to USC this year, supplementing occasionally spotty ground production through the air. However, when he stumbles, and the variable of his skill is removed, USC quickly becomes on par with the Big Ten’s second-rate teams.
“We had a couple of key drops. We had a couple of missed protections,” Riley said. “I had several bad calls.”
USC boasts depth across the board, thanks to Riley’s series of elite recruiting cycles, but roster talent does not guarantee readiness at the national level. It isn’t even enough for the Trojans to hang with the Big Ten’s middle tier.
It’s not like Wisconsin is an offensive juggernaut. USC held the Badgers to just 15 passing yards in the first half. In total, Wisconsin senior quarterback Colton Joseph threw the ball just 14 times, notching 58 yards. The Badgers docked 200 total offensive yards, the second-fewest the Trojans have conceded this season.
A more consistent squad would have exploited Wisconsin’s lackluster offense, but USC never hit its usual passing stride. Instead, Wisconsin offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes forced USC to play the Badgers’ signature smash-mouth football. Wisconsin bullied USC schematically, a failure that falls squarely on the shoulders of the Trojans’ coaching staff.
Any grace USC’s fanbase was willing to offer Riley after nearly five years of letdown is as good as gone. No amount of coach-speak or vows of improvement can absolve the Trojans’ abysmal showing on Saturday. Barring a pair of miracle upsets against Ohio State and Indiana, USC’s year will end at a non-consequential bowl game once again.
Riley seemed optimistic about the Trojans’ immediate future, citing college football’s recent chaos in the -game press conference.
“There’s a lot of teams getting beat, a lot of teams getting beat on the road. There’s a lot of parity right now, and the toughest teams – and the teams that can battle back from losses or tough moments like this – will be the ones standing in the end,” Riley said.
It’s Riley’s fifth-year on a contract paying him north of 10 million dollars a year. In the same city, UCLA touts an undefeated record with a first-year head coach at the helm, straight out of the Sun Belt. Northwestern’s head coach David Braun and Kentucky’s head coach Will Stein are both firmly in the race for their respective conference championships in their first year. This begs the uncomfortable question: is Lincoln Riley simply not the man for the USC head coaching position?
The easy answer is no. The honest answer is more complicated.
As the Trojans reel from their second loss of the season, it feels like USC is running out the clock on the Riley-era, but his ousting is not as simple as some Trojan fans would lead you to believe. His buyout sits near an estimated whopping $70 million, and his exit would likely mean losing some of his staff’s hallmark recruits to the transfer portal. The likes of freshman wide receiver Trent Mosley and freshman defensive end Luke Wafle feel like the future of USC football, and firing Riley likely means forfeiting the assets that have sustained the program this year.
Regardless of what USC’s athletic administration decides about Riley’s future, that decision will arrive in the offseason. Now, USC still has four games on the docket, and the road is not getting any easier.
USC will have to bite down for its showdown with Ohio State next Saturday at the Coliseum. If Riley’s big-game history is any indicator, the matchup will be a tall task for a Trojans program that feels lost.