For the past year, Democrats have worried that with no clear frontrunner in the race for California governor, that so many Democratic candidates in the field could pave the way for two Republicans to advance to the general election.
New polling suggests that the opposite may occur.
In California, the top two candidates regardless of party affiliation advance to the general election. A new Emerson College poll released May 13, showed Democrat Xavier Becerra leading the pack with 19%, Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Tom Steyer each received 17% support.
Becerra’s support increased nine percentage points since Emerson College’s April poll. Steyer’s support increased three percentage points, while Hilton remained stagnant at 17%.
“I don’t spend a lot of time on polls to be honest,” Steyer told Annenberg Media during a press gaggle May 13. “I feel like they move around, I don’t trust them. My job really is to try and see as many Californians face to face and listen to their story and make sure I understand what’s going on in their lives and in this state.”
Republican Chad Bianco received 11% support, Democrat Katie Porter received 10%, Matt Mahan garnered 9%, Antonio Villaraigosa received 4% and Tony Thurmond received 1%. Twelve percent of voters remain undecided, according to the survey.
“Many Democrats were enormously worried of the possibility that there would be two Republicans at the top of the ticket in the June elections, and that the bluest or one of the bluest states in the country would end up with two Republican candidates to choose from,” said Kamy Akhavan, managing director of the USC Center for the Political Future.
“It looks like, based on this latest polling from Emerson, that that ain’t gonna happen,” he said. “Most likely, at least one Democrat who makes it to the top two, and possibly two Democrats at the top.
In the race for Los Angeles mayor, which is nonpartisan, current Mayor Karen Bass received 30% support, Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman received 22% and 19% support, respectively. Both candidates hope to advance to the runoff in November. Sixteen percent of voters remain undecided, down from 51% in the same poll in March.
Akhavan said that it would be tough for Bass not to advance to November with the money her campaign has, her endorsements and executive experience.
He said the question is who advances with her. In Los Angeles, if a candidate receives more than 50% support in the June election, they win the race outright. Based on current polling numbers, that does not seem likely.
Akhavan said Pratt is running a strong social media campaign, and came off as a clear communicator in the NBC 4 Los Angeles debate.
“Initially, most political pundits and politicos thought Spencer Pratt’s campaign was not serious, and he has demonstrated with his performance in that last debate and with his polling numbers that he does need to be taken seriously,” Akhavan said. “He has a real shot of making it to the top two, despite the fact that, yes, he’s a reality television star, and he said some silly things while on television.”