Which version of No. 12 USC (30-10, 13-7) will be standing at the end of the regular season? Will it be the 19-0 Trojans that captivated college baseball fans by vaporizing opponents on their way to a historic start, or the team that has gone 11-10 since, treading water in the season’s second half?
The answer may become clear in upcoming matchups against Nebraska (30-9, 14-3), Purdue (27-11, 14-6), and No. 19 Oregon (27-10, 11-5) en route to the Big Ten Tournament.
“There’s no question it’s a postseason team; they’re actually a borderline host team right now, but there’s just so much left to learn,” said longtime ESPN college baseball analyst Mike Rooney. “Nebraska [will be] a massive weekend series…this is a real chance to make a statement.”
USC has 16 games left to do so, and it won’t be easy.
“It’s been a while since they looked dominant like they did [earlier] this season,” said Eric Sorenson, who covers the West Coast for D1Baseball. “I don’t see them going 19-0 [again], but I see them putting together a good stretch down here. … I think that trips to Nebraska and to Oregon are going to be tough.”
Don’t let that discount USC’s early success. Their 19-0 start beat the 1988 team’s 15-0 record — when future Gold Glove winning second baseman Bret Boone was on the team — and tied USC’s all-time streak from 1955. An electric bullpen spearheaded this year’s streak that led USC to an NCAA-leading 1.61 ERA.
“I think just this sheer number of wins was loud,” said Rooney. “It was like, ‘oh my gosh look at USC, they’re just not losing,’ and then, ‘oh my gosh look at Edwards and Govel just dominating people.’”
“Dominating” isn’t an exaggeration; Edwards amounted 31 strikeouts in his first three starts and didn’t allow a run until his 30th inning pitched. He entered April with a 0.67 ERA, among the lowest in the country. Govel started off similarly hot where he pitched to a 0.27 ERA with one run allowed in his first 33 innings.
Govel and Edwards’ performances are chalk and cheese compared to 2025. Edwards pitched just 32.2 innings and finished with a 3.86 ERA and 46 strikeouts, while Govel amassed 45 strikeouts after 48.1 innings. Edwards has since more than doubled his strikeouts to 107 after 60.1 innings pitched and Govel sits at 58 after 58 innings.
“I thought they would struggle on the mound, but once they got out to that 19-0 start I was really fired up for them,” said Sorenson, who said last year’s pitchers played “pedestrian baseball.”
The Trojans’ starters only tell one half of the story.
USC’s .977 fielding average places them 36th nationally, and is led by starters like junior infielder Abbrie Covarubbias and junior catcher Isaac Cadena who hold near-perfect fielding percentages. Better still, USC’s 3.5 runs per game allowed is third to only UC Santa Barbara (24-12) and No. 1 UCLA (34-3, 19-0) in NCAA Division I.
“That’s an unsung part of their game,” said Sorenson. “You can get good pitching like that … and if you defend as well as they have now you can compete against anyone.”
Their batting, meanwhile, isn’t as competitive across the board. Senior right fielder Jack Basseer and junior outfielder Kevin Takeuchi are the only two Trojans with a batting average above .300, with a .315 and .309 respectively. This falls well short of Nebraska’s team-leading .400 (junior outfielder Mac Moyer) and UCLA’s .365 (junior outfielder Will Gasparino).
USC holds a mere .261 team average, placing them in the bottom third of Division I. Any defensive shortcomings could overburden their offense — especially when facing an oppressive bullpen or robust batting lineup. USC faced both UCLA and UC Santa Barbara and lost all four games.
“Just playing the brand of baseball they played in the first half of the season, I think one of the critiques that you hear for USC’s team is that it does feel like a fairly narrow path to victory,” said Rooney.
The Trojans’ final game against UCLA in the three-game series is a case in point. The Bruins combined for five home runs, had several batters record three hits, and held USC to two hits and one run in the final five frames.
A similar story unfolded two days later in a 5-1 loss against UC Santa Barbara who led the NCAA with a 2.89 ERA at the time of their win. USC had just five hits and stranded seven runners on base.
That’s not to say these losses define USC at this point in the season, as difficult as they might have been.
“There’s still time to turn around and improve,” said Sorenson. “It’s just a matter of some of these guys hopefully getting on a heater.”
Several key upcoming matchups leading into the Big Ten Tournament are a prime opportunity to do so. In addition to Nebraska, Purdue, and Oregon, USC will also have series matchups against Rutgers (20-19, 7-10) and Nevada (20-14). The latter two could boost USC’s Big Ten record but don’t help the fact the Trojans lack wins against top opponents. USC has lost all four of their ranked matchups.
“As we start to get into postseason projections, USC really needs something marquee on their résumé,” said Rooney. “People think USC’s got a good team, but what they don’t have is a marquee series weekend win ... they need some exclamation points on their résumé now.”
Those “exclamation points” will likely come if the Trojans stick to what’s proven successful: minimizing opponents’ runs with clean defense and a healthy bullpen, and getting timely hits.
“What has to go right for them to make a deep postseason run is they just have to be themselves,” said Rooney. “I don’t think going off-script is going to work for them.”
Neither does veteran MLB Pipeline writer and prospect analyst Jonathan Mayo, who feels some Trojans can earn a top spot in the draft in July if they focus on what’s worked well all season: impact on winning games and feel to hit.
Mayo projects standout players like Mason Edwards to be picked early. When asked what more he can do to get noticed by scouts, Mayo’s answer was simple: “Not much…It’s just a question of ‘the stuff.’”
Mayo said Edwards’ stuff — the physical quality of pitches like spin rate and velocity — is “really good” for a top starter, especially with his curveball and changeup.
“I don’t know that [Edwards is] quite worked his way into the first round, but he’s close,” said Mayo.
This isn’t the case for USC’s position players. Mayo said forming a strong stat line is only one half of the job, because “you can’t have a guy who’s got the ability to hit, but there’s no impact.”
Developing impact could mean physical maturation, becoming more consistent at the plate, or bettering situational production. Player impact is “not a switch you can flip,” according to Mayo, but there’s still baseball to be played this season, and many chances for the Trojans to prove themselves.
“Those guys will get opportunities, and you never know what happens at the next level,” said Mayo.
We also don’t know how they will evolve leading to the Big Ten Tournament. But with 16 games remaining in the regular season, there’s still time to see which version of USC will be standing in the end.