The Lakers have wrapped up an electric 2026 regular season, ending with a 53-29 record and securing the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference. However, as the LakeShow look to start their playoff run on home court, they unexpectedly enter as the underdog.
While the Lakers are set to face the No. 5 seed Houston Rockets — a team they have beaten two out of three times in the regular season — recent injuries to star guards Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves has set up a first-round series that leaves the Lakers facing an uphill battle.
The Lakers must revitalize themselves without their two stars, and forward LeBron James is set to lead the Purple and Gold against Kevin Durant and a young, talented Houston squad. There are real questions about how this series will play out, and answering them will reveal whether a shorthanded Lakers team can pull off one of the more unlikely first-round upsets in recent memory.
What is the key to winning this series?
Nguyen: The Lakers have to show consistent effort every night, especially on the defensive glass. Houston leads the league in total (47.7) and offensive (14.9) rebounds per game, while Los Angeles is at the opposite end, averaging a worrying 41.0 (27th) total boards and 31.5 defensive boards (21st). This sentiment was echoed by Lakers head coach JJ Redick saying, “we don’t box out, we’re not going to win this series.”
Routine hustle will improve the team’s chances of winning significantly. It translates to better team defense, more turnovers forced, more stops and increased possessions, all of which are difference makers in the playoffs.
Lakers guard Marcus Smart stressed the importance of leaving it all on the court, emphasizing how Los Angeles, “might not be the most athletic and strongest, but we got to have the most heart.” Developing effort into a habit instead of a chore will help the Lakers bridge the gap left by Dončić and Reaves, providing them with a real chance of winning this series.
Gong: It’s essential that the Lakers allow James to create effectively as the primary offensive creator. The entire Laker team will have to knock down their threes to space the floor and allow James to drive in and draw defenders out of the paint. The Lakers aren’t the most efficient team from beyond the arc (35.9% this season), but the starters and bench players must hit open threes and step up beyond the arc. If they can’t, Houston’s defense will pack the paint and James’ ability to create will be significantly hampered.
It’s equally as important that the Lakers don’t turn the ball over carelessly. Without the trusty and nifty hands of Dončić or Reaves, the Lakers are left with James alternating with guards Luke Kennard and Marcus Smart as the primary ball handlers. The Rockets will most likely try to capitalize on this by using constant pressure to force turnovers. Because of this, the Lakers should simplify their offensive gameplan, as their biggest Achilles heel would be to give away possessions with an offense that already lacks firepower.
If the Lakers can limit those giveaways, they can keep the pressure on Houston and force the Rockets into mistakes they’ve been prone to making against LA all season, averaging around 17.3 turnovers against them this year.
Who is the biggest X-factor for the Lakers?
Nguyen: Center Deandre Ayton will be crucial to the Lakers’ success, or lack thereof, in this series. The former first overall pick will need to step up in a big way. This season, Ayton is averaging career-lows in points (12.5), assists (0.8) and rebounds (8.0).
A maligned defender for his position, Ayton will need to anchor the paint on both ends. The big man will be tasked with converting easy looks around the rim and in the paint while keeping the rebound-happy Rockets off the glass.
Despite his struggles, Ayton has shown flashes of excellence during his inaugural season in purple and gold. He is shooting a career-best from the field (67.1%) and has posted 13 games with at least 20 points and 10 rebounds. Out of those contests, the Lakers have won 12 of them. In other words, the Lakeshow would benefit greatly from these types of performances.
Gong: I totally agree that Deandre Ayton is key and would even note the importance of Jaxson Hayes, who is returning from an injured foot. The Rockets are the taller, more physical team, and both Deandre Ayton and Jaxson Hayes will have to step up to stop Houston’s big men, such as Alperen Şengün, from dominating the boards and the paint.
However, I think one of the biggest X-Factors for the Lakers will be forward Rui Hachimura. Hachimura won’t only have to step up in grabbing rebounds, but offensively as well. Hachimura will be the secondary and at times, primary offensive option for the Lakers. The forward is coming off of a career-high year beyond the arc with 116 3-point shots made as he set a franchise record by shooting another career-high 44.3% from downtown.
For the Lakers, Hachimura’s 3-point ability in the regular season has to translate in the playoffs and Hachimura won’t be alone in that responsibility. Other Laker role players such as Luke Kennard (who shot an even more impressive 47.8% from three this season), will have to step up and knock down jumpers as well. If the Lakers can not do this they will have trouble creating offensive production and limit James’ innate playmaking ability.
Who are the players to watch for the Rockets?
Nguyen: The Rockets’ two all-stars, forward Kevin Durant and center Alperen Şengün, will certainly be at the top of LA’s scouting report. However, one name to look out for is their young and athletic wing, third-year guard Amen Thompson. These types of wings have been a thorn in the side of the Lakers during their past two playoff series, creating havoc on both ends.
Role players in general have given the Lakers fits in previous postseasons, such as Minnesota Timberwolves forward Jaden McDaniels and center Naz Reid rising to the occasion last season and former Nuggets forward Michael Porter Jr. a season before that.
Thompson has become a mainstay in Houston’s starting lineup and one of their best on-ball defenders, averaging 1.5 steals per game. He is also a proficient offensive threat, posting an 18.3 point, 7.8 rebound and 5.3 assist line.
Despite his strengths, Thompson has one glaring weakness. He is a poor 3-point shooter, hitting just 21.3% of his attempts. If the Lakers want to limit Houston’s offensive firepower, forcing Thompson to let it fly from beyond the arc is a sound strategy.
Gong: The Lakers have to stop the chance of a Rockets’ “third star” this series. While Amen Thompson is a huge threat, the Lakers cannot risk forward Tari Eason going off. Eason can be dominant on the offensive glass and is more than capable of forcing a turnover here and there. If the Lakers allow him to shine in either role, Houston’s physical toughness and youthfulness can overwhelm them.
What makes Eason’s production especially dangerous is what he does for the rest of Houston’s offense. If Eason is able to produce, it takes the scoring burden off sophomore guard Reed Sheppard, who has massively struggled against the Lakers and is a player they can target on both sides of the ball. The Lakers can only do so if they take away Eason’s ability to bail Houston out.
Why should Lakers fans be hopeful?
Nguyen: One man: LeBron James. In the postseason, there are two types of players: risers and fallers. And James is most certainly a riser as he has historically increased his production when it matters most, cementing himself as one of the greatest playoff performers ever, with 19 playoff trips, 10 Finals appearances and 4 championships. The King has carried subpar teams deep into the playoffs before and in what could be his final playoff run, there’s no reason to count him out now.
Gong: To add to that, the Lakers have avoided the NBA Play-In Tournament, and a small break before the first round adds some much needed rest for James, who is still remarkably producing at an elite, all-star level in his 23rd NBA season.
But the long series schedule is an even bigger reason to keep faith. While Dončić (grade 2 hamstring strain) and Reaves (grade 2 oblique injury) are both out indefinitely, the Lakers have been blessed with a schedule that spans over 2 weeks long, which can buy generous time for a possible return of either star. The Lakers will have two or more days of rest before Games 2, 3 and 5, which will help James feel refreshed with a higher workload asked of him this series. And if James, at age 41, can turn back the clock for a ‘LeBronto’ run or even just keep the Lakers competitive early, he can spare some precious time for Doncic and Reaves to potentially re-enter, which will bolster the Lakers chances dramatically.
Despite all odds, the shorthanded Lakers have a chance to win this series and keep their championship hopes alive. To do so, the entire team must rise to the occasion. The Lakers are set to face off against the Houston Rockets for Game 1, Saturday, April 18 at Crypto.com Arena.