On the prediction side, the Academy Awards’ acting races benefit from having a significant number of precursor awards, giving audiences an expectation of who will eventually take home the gold on Oscar night. This year, this proves to be half true. In both of the supporting categories, the race appears to be shored up, and any deviation from the predicted winners would come as a huge shock.
In contrast, the Actor and Actress race leave plenty of room for surprise. In both cases, a number of exemplary performances vie for the top spot. Although each performer doesn’t hold equal footing, both categories have the potential to be major spoilers on Oscar Sunday. These categories will surely make or break a number of prediction ballots.
In this series for Ampersand, I will break down every category for the 2025 Academy Awards. In each category, I will evaluate the individual nominees and predict the eventual winner. Though only Best Picture utilizes a preferential ballot for Oscar voting, I will include what my preferential ballot would be for every category if I were a voter. Finally, I will share what my five alternate nominees would be if I had to create an entirely new lineup.
Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees: Yura Borisov (“Anora”), Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”), Edward Norton (“A Complete Unknown”) Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist”), Jeremy Strong (“The Apprentice”)
Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”)
If you want to get one prediction right this evening, pencil in Kieran Culkin for “A Real Pain.” The “Succession” actor dominated the awards circuit this season, winning essentially every high-profile award for his performance as Benji Kaplan, the loose cannon, manic, charismatic cousin to writer/director Jesse Eisenberg’s David Kaplan.
“A Real Pain” follows Benji and David as they tour Poland in honor of their recently deceased grandmother, a survivor of the Holocaust. In one of the movie’s best scenes, David describes his relationship to Benji to the rest of the tour group over dinner: “I love him, and I hate him, and I wanna kill him, and I wanna be him.” Eisenberg created a tightrope act of a character, and Culkin pulls it off with seeming effortlessness. This is the kind of performance that wins awards, and it’s no surprise that the industry has recognized it so heavily.
While I do love Culkin’s performance, I wish it ran in the lead actor category. Screen time mustn’t be the only factor when considering lead versus supporting, but Benji both equally appears in and equally drives the film when compared to David. This is a clear two-hander film, and I would prefer to see even a marginally smaller role compete in this category. Some people may despise lead versus supporting debate, but I do feel that the enormity of Culkin’s character contributes, at least in part, to his domination in this category.
And it is a good category this year. When I rank these five nominees in my mind, the gaps in quality are limited. All five men deliver tremendous work that deserves recognition.
Funnily enough, Culkin’s “Succession” compatriot Jeremy Strong seems to be a solid runner-up in the Supporting Actor race. In “The Apprentice,” Strong portrays Roy Cohn as the Dr. Frankenstein to Donald Trump’s monster. After nearly being locked out of the conversation entirely early in the season, the performances of “The Apprentice” gained traction following both Trump’s election and Sebastian Stan’s success at the Golden Globes — Stan won Best Actor (Musical/Comedy) for “A Different Man” and was nominated for Best Actor (Drama) for “The Apprentice.” Strong brings the same commitment to this performance as he famously does to any other, and he will likely gain a substantial amount of votes for doing so.
Another back-up contender, Guy Pearce’s performance in “The Brutalist” is my favorite in both this category and that movie. Pearce plays Harrison Lee Van Buren, a wealthy industrialist who takes Adrien Brody’s László Tóth under his employ for an architectural expedition. Pearce gives a vulnerable performance of a guarded man, wielding charm and austerity as a guise.
Like Pearce, Yura Borisov gives a performance with immense depth and interiority. In “Anora,” Borisov plays Igor, a Russian lackey tasked with guarding (abducting?) Mikey Madison’s Ani as they attempt to track down her new husband, Ivan, for a forced annulment. In my review of “Anora,” I called Borisov the movie’s “secret weapon,” and I am thrilled to see him represented here.
More than anyone in this category, Edward Norton’s nomination came as a surprise. Norton’s earnest turn as Pete Seeger is one of the strongest performances in “A Complete Unknown,” a film that overperformed in general at the Academy on nomination day. Norton may not be competitive in this category, but his inclusion in it is a welcome one.
In general, this year’s Supporting Actor pool is a murderers' row of worthy performances, and I could make five worthy lineups without scraping the bottom of the barrel. The late-season surprises of Strong and Norton came at the expense of Clarence Maclin, who long seemed to be a frontrunner for his auto-biographical turn in “Sing Sing.” A first-time film actor, Maclin delivers an exceptional, nuanced performance that is a far cry from simply “playing himself.”
Though Strong received a nomination as Sebastian Stan’s supporting man in “The Apprentice,” my dream lineup in this category includes Adam Pearson for work with Stan in “A Different Man.” Pearson manages a juggling act — he commands the screen, and the film hinges on him, yet he still delivers a truly supporting performance in total harmony with Stan’s. He’s a perfect foil to Stan’s character’s insecurity, and the movie doesn’t work without him.
With by far the sparsest screen time on my list, Craig Tate astounded me with his one-scene performance in “Nickel Boys.” At a pivotal moment in the film, I found Tate entirely captivating and engaging while still being understated. Perhaps the most memorable moment in a great movie rests squarely on Tate’s shoulders, and he executes it perfectly; it’s not often that the acting branch recognizes these performances, but they deserve slots in this category just as much as the major supporting characters.
My Preferential Ballot: Guy Pearce, Yura Borisov, Kieran Culkin, Jeremy Strong, Edward Norton
My Alternate Nominees: Austin Butler (“Dune: Part Two”), Jack Haven (“I Saw the TV Glow”), Clarence Maclin (“Sing Sing”), Adam Pearson (“A Different Man”), Craig Tate (“Nickel Boys”)
Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees: Monica Barbaro (“A Complete Unknown”), Ariana Grande (“Wicked”), Felicity Jones (“The Brutalist”), Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”), Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez”)
Predicted Winner: Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez”)
If Kieran Culkin is the safest bet of the night, Zoe Saldaña is probably the second safest. The blockbuster actress has been a favorite all season in a pretty rocky category — for a time, she and Ariana Grande were considered the only sure things to get nominations at all. Even through multiple controversies surrounding “Emilia Pérez,” its cast and its creators, Saldaña has proven to be relatively bulletproof.
Beyond that, Saldaña is one of the only aspects of “Emilia Pérez” that really works at all. Through every shortcoming of the crime opera, Saldaña still manages to give a dynamic, commanding performance unlike any from the actress before. It’s not my favorite in the category, but I certainly don’t begrudge her nomination.
Between Saldaña and Culkin, it’s worth noting that both supporting categories this year are mired in a bit of category fraud. Like Culkin, Saldaña feels like a clear lead in her film — she has the most screen time, and the story is told from her perspective. They’re great performances, but it seems clear that studios thought they’d have better chances in the supporting categories; in this case, Saldaña running in supporting allowed her to avoid competing against Karla Sofía Gascón in lead. This still ran the risk of Saldaña coming up against co-star Selena Gomez in the category, but Gomez didn’t make the cut. Culkin, likewise, avoided competition with Eisenberg were he to be nominated as a lead actor. Now, Culkin and Saldaña’s substantial performances have dominated the supporting categories all season.
It’s hard to determine second place in the Supporting Actress race. Though Ariana Grande felt like a heavy contender earlier in the season, her support dropped off somewhere along with “Wicked’s” Best Picture prospects. Perhaps Academy voters are keeping in mind that “Wicked: For Good” remains on the horizon. Still, I thought Grande gave a completely engaging performance with strong comic timing and a fair bit of emotional depth.
Given the number of Academy voters expressing struggles with completing “The Brutalist,” there was a genuine concern that Felicity Jones would miss out on a nomination — her performance almost entirely appears in the second half of the 215-minute film following its intermission. Though she landed a nomination, this fatigue from voters would likely still inhibit a win. Isabella Rossellini seems like a better third-place contender; though she only has a few brief scenes in “Conclave,” her performance is exceptional, and she is a highly respected actor with only one nomination to her name. It probably won’t win her an Oscar here, but the “It’s time” narrative cannot be discounted.
Competing against Grande as my favorite in the category is Monica Barbaro, another surprise nominee, for her turn in “A Complete Unknown.” Barbaro’s screen presence allows her to go toe-to-toe with Timothée Chalamet throughout the film; her appearances may be brief, but I found her performance far more compelling. She is by far my favorite part of that movie.
Though Chalamet and Sebastian Stan were recognized with one nomination for two beloved performances this year, Zendaya didn’t get the same love for her roles in “Challengers” and “Dune: Part Two.” Both performances deserve love from the Academy. In particular, I felt she elevated the role of Chani in “Dune: Part Two” in a way that is both clearly supporting and central to the film’s success.
The first-person cinematography likely didn’t help “Nickel Boys” on the acting front (the film underperformed in general on nomination morning), but Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor creates a massive impact in her limited screen time. Some have criticized the film for being sterile and emotionally distant, yet her performance proves it’s anything but.
My Preferential Ballot: Monica Barbaro, Ariana Grande, Zoe Saldaña, Isabella Rossellini, Felicity Jones
My Alternate Nominees: Michele Austin (“Hard Truths”), Joan Chen (“Dìdi”), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“Nickel Boys”), Carol Kane (“Between the Temples”), Zendaya (“Dune: Part Two”)
Best Actor
The Nominees: Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”), Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”), Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”), Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”), Sebastian Stan (“The Apprentice”)
Predicted Winner: Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”)
The battle for Best Actor will shape Oscars history — and that’s not an exaggeration. Timothée Chalamet stands as one of two frontrunners in the category, recognized here for his work as a young Bob Dylan in “A Complete Unknown.” Chalamet studied for years to learn how to sing and perform as Dylan, gaining even more time to study after the film was delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic. If Chalamet wins, he will become the youngest actor in history to do so, earning his first Oscar for Best Actor at 29.
Chalamet’s primary competition? Adrien Brody, who currently holds the record for being the youngest Best Actor winner for “The Pianist,” which he won at an older 29. In this race, the two likeliest scenarios are Chalamet takes the crown or Brody wins the Oscar himself to keep it.
The latter seems more likely. Despite Chalamet’s recent success at the SAG Awards, Brody won essentially every other significant prize this season. Brody also benefits from a bit of historical precedent; while the Academy has no problem awarding Best Actress to deserving up-and-comers, the Best Actor race tends to go to older, more seasoned performers. In the past 15 years, the Oscars recognized Emma Stone when she was 27, Brie Larson when she was 26 and Jennifer Lawrence when she was 22. Compare Brody’s 29-year-old win to Marlee Matlin, who made Academy history by winning Best Actress at only 21. It’s clear Chalamet fights an uphill battle.
Yet Chalamet’s performance being biographical gives him an edge that Brody lacks. To put it simply, the Academy loves watching people they recognize play people they recognize. In 2023, the four acting winners (Michelle Yeoh, Brendan Fraser, Jamie Lee Curtis and Ke Huy Quan) all portrayed fictional characters; prior to that, the last group to do so was 2017’s class of Emma Stone, Casey Affleck, Mahershala Ali and Viola Davis. Before that, one had to look nearly 20 years back to 1998. Performances based on real people often have an edge in the acting categories, and Chalamet is the closest thing to frontrunner status that a biopic performance has this year. With SAG having the biggest crossover of guild voters to Oscar voters, it’s possible Chalamet’s win there revealed an eventual Oscar winner.
Chalamet and fellow nominee Sebastian Stan find themselves in a similar boat this year: both men gave successful performances in genre movies and were nominated for their roles in biopics instead. I wish these actors got nominated for their other projects — in general, fictional performances draw my attention in these categories more than biopic roles. Yet while I would hesitate to give Chalamet a nomination for his work as Bob Dylan in this category, I still felt Stan deserved the nod he received for my least favorite of his two performances.
Portraying Donald Trump is a perilous task, one that could easily fall into annoying, uninspired parody. Stan wisely holds back on some of Trump’s larger personality traits, especially early on in the films — the mannerisms appear half-formed, getting larger as Trump delves further into a world of excess. By the end of the film, Stan completely morphs into a more recognizable version of the living caricature, yet it’s hard to pinpoint a single moment where the performance shifts.
Chalamet, in contrast, starts hard on the Bob Dylan mannerisms, and they never shift as the movie progresses. He enters the film as a music biopic formed impression, one that proves enigmatic to everyone around him. This works to an extent, reflecting the often unexplainable persona of the real Dylan himself.
When watching a lengthy biopic centered around this one performance, however, I found myself butting up against the opaque character Chalamet portrayed. I don’t need a movie to give me all the answers, nor do I request all characters’ motives be clear, but I wish Chalamet, writer/director James Mangold and writer Jay Cocks gave me just a little more to latch onto. Chalamet emulates the singing and the voice well, but I prefer many of the actor’s other performances. If I must choose between the frontrunners, I greatly prefer Brody’s layered, emotive performance as Hungarian architect László Tóth.
Sadly, my favorite performance in the category never gained steam as a contender for the Best Actor prize. In “Sing Sing,” Colman Domingo portrays a prisoner who, while trying to appeal his sentence, takes part in a performing arts program as an actor and writer. This could easily become an overly performative role, and Domingo — a seasoned stage actor himself — shows shades of that. It’s at times a mannered performance, one with some of the big “Oscar moments” that help land a nomination. But through this, Domingo lends the role an overwhelming amount of pathos and nuance lesser actors would be unable to find. “Sing Sing” is one of my favorite films of the year, elevated in no small part by the exceptional work of Domingo and co-star Clarence Maclin.
As stated before, I wish Chalamet got more attention for his other project this year. He delivers arguably his best performance to date in “Dune: Part Two,” commanding every second of a massive sci-fi epic. Blockbuster performances aren’t nominated often, but this is a huge step up from the actor’s work in the previous film. Another swap from this year’s Best Actor ballot, no male performance in 2024 gripped me like Stan’s manic spiral of insecurity in “A Different Man.”
Matching Stan’s descent into madness in “A Different Man,” Missagh Zareh masterfully sells his role as a man losing his grip on his family — and reality — in “The Seed of the Sacred Fig.” What starts as a compassionate portrayal of a man sacrificing his morals quickly shifts into the central performance of a horror movie; Zareh plays in both modes well.
I am disappointed to see both of Luca Guadagnino’s 2024 movies left off of acting ballots this year. Daniel Craig gives one of his best performances in “Queer,” playing loneliness and longing like it’s a sport. Before “Challengers,” I hardly knew Josh O’Conner’s name. Now, after seeing him play the equally charming and revolting tennis player Patrick Zweig, I am ready to follow O’Conner to whatever project he picks next. Like Stan and Chalamet, O’Conner earns credit for turning in two strong performances in 2024, with his turn as the lead of Alice Rohrwacher’s “La Chimera” equally deserving of praise.
My Preferential Ballot: Colman Domingo, Adrien Brody, Ralph Fiennes, Sebastian Stan, Timothée Chalamet
My Alternate Nominees: Timothée Chalamet (“Dune: Part Two”), Daniel Craig (“Queer”), Josh O’Conner (“Challengers”), Sebastian Stan (“A Different Man”), Missagh Zareh (“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”)
Best Actress
The Nominees: Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”), Karla Sofía Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”), Mikey Madison (“Anora”), Demi Moore (“The Substance”), Frenanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”)
Predicted Winner: Demi Moore (“The Substance”)
Get a coin out and flip it. If it lands heads, write down Mikey Madison for “Anora”; if it’s tails, pick Demi Moore for “The Substance”; if it lands on its side, go with Fernanda Torres for “I’m Still Here.” That’s probably the best advice you’re going to get in this category.
More than any above-the-line category, Best Actress truly feels like it could go in any of three directions. Thus far, no major precursor awards ceremony (Golden Globes, SAG, BAFTAs, Critics’ Choice) has seen this group of five women face off against each other; in fact, none of these ceremonies have involved all of the leading three. Torres competed in Best Actress (Drama) at the Golden Globes, while Madison and Moore squared off in the Comedy division. Torres didn’t make the cut at SAG, Critics’ Choice or the BAFTAs.
Moore seems like the closest to a safe bet you’re going to get. She beat Madison at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice and SAG; only the BAFTAs saw Madison take home the prize. Moore likewise has made a strong showing of her awards circuit speeches, strengthening her narrative as a popular actress who has been largely sidelined in the industry for decades (a narrative reflected through her performance in the film itself).
Yet Madison isn’t without her strengths. With “Anora” as the clear frontrunner for Best Picture, voters may seek to align their Best Actress selections with their winner for the top prize. Madison also benefits from being in a movie more Academy voters will likely find digestible; Moore stars in an over-the-top, bloody body horror film, which could easily turn many people away. The last time a horror performance won an Oscar was Natalie Portman’s turn in “Black Swan” in 2011. Compared to “The Substance,” “Black Swan” looks like Disney/Pixar.
As stated in the Best Actor category, the Best Actress race historically doesn’t have a problem with rewarding younger performers. There’s a history of ingénue roles succeeding in the category, and Madison’s turn as Ani in “Anora” fits into this mold. However, the past few years hasn’t seen the same success for younger, first-time nominees; recent winners include well established actresses like Michelle Yeoh and Jessica Chastain, as well as performers like Renée Zellweger, Frances McDormand and Emma Stone picking up repeat wins. The current iteration of the Academy likes awarding Best Actress to well-known performers, and Moore fits that mold better than Madison.
Like Chalamet, Torres competes for a performance in a biographical film, though this doesn’t translate to the biopic boost in quite the same way that a Bob Dylan film does. Torres also has a strong familial narrative — her mother, Fernanda Montenegro, became the first Brazilian woman to be nominated for Best Actress at the Academy Awards back in 1999 for her performance in “Central Station.”
All three women deliver astounding performances, and I cannot say I would be truly upset with any one of them winning. I was overjoyed to see Torres nominated for her work in “I’m Still Here,” which she delivers with extreme restraint and nuance. It is among my favorite performances of 2024, if not my very favorite.
Yet the horror fan in me can’t help but root for Moore. Moore perfectly adapts her performance to match the evolving, varying tones of “The Substance,” equally selling over-the-top comedy and moments of genuine, earned emotion. There’s a poignancy here that lesser actors may have failed to deliver. This performance elevates the movie; without Moore’s ability, I doubt “The Substance” would be the strange Oscars darling it became.
The exclusion of Marianne Jean-Baptiste from this category shocks me. I don’t mean the announcers surprised me on nomination morning when they didn’t read her name; by then, I’d accepted the likelihood that Jean-Baptiste would be left out of the lineup. I’m just baffled that more people aren’t appreciating this performance.
In “Hard Truths,” Jean-Baptiste plays Pansy, a woman largely incapable of finding happiness. She goes through her days ranting about the latest grievance to anyone within earshot, longing for the next time she can simply go to sleep and escape into quiet nothingness. We all know some version of this person, and Jean-Baptiste captures them with empathy and care. It’s a loud, sometimes funny, eventually heartbreaking performance rendered with immense depth. The Best Actress lineup feels lacking without Jean-Baptiste included.
Moore’s nomination in this field marks the first time in years the Academy recognized a horror performance in this category. Each year, I find at least one turn from performers — particularly women — in horror that lands among my favorite acting of the year. Alongside Moore, Naomi Scott stands out for her tremendous scream queen role in “Smile 2.” I can’t say I care for the first “Smile” movie, and while some problems still persist in this one, Scott’s exceptional performance elevates the film alongside a step up in direction from Parker Finn.
Joining my proposed nomination of Missagh Zareh for “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” Soheila Golestani anchors the film as a matriarch caught between loyalty to her husband/country and responsibility for her children. Golestani faced political reprisal for her role, with Iran placing a travel ban on her following her participation in Mohammad Rasoulof’s secretly-filmed Best International Feature nominee. This film extends beyond an awards ceremony, but her terrific performance is still deserving of praise on its own merits.
My Preferential Ballot: Demi Moore, Fernanda Torres, Mikey Madison, Cynthia Erivo, Karla Sofia Gascón
My Alternate Nominees: Juliette Gariépy (“Red Rooms”), Soheila Golestani (“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths”), Kani Kusruti (“All We Imagine As Light”), Naomi Scott (“Smile 2”)