It’s finally the day of the Academy Awards, and this season’s winners are nearly here. A wonderful array of films make up the Academy’s 50 nominees, with 10 of them competing for the top prize of Best Picture.
Compared to the past few years, this has been a strange season, one laden with multiple controversies, shifting popularity and unclear frontrunners. Even now, I struggle with predicting a winner in several key categories, feeling like a coin flip’s chance will make or break my ballot. I cannot wait to see what surprises this ceremony has in store.
In this series for Ampersand, I will break down every category for the 2025 Academy Awards. In each category, I will evaluate the individual nominees and predict the eventual winner. Though only Best Picture utilizes a preferential ballot for Oscar voting, I will include what my preferential ballot would be for every category if I were a voter. Finally, I will share what my five (or, in the case of Best Picture, 10) alternate nominees would be if I had to create an entirely new lineup.
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
The Nominees: “A Complete Unknown,” “Conclave,” “Emilia Pérez,” “Nickel Boys,” “Sing Sing”
Predicted Winner: “Conclave”
I will note as a disclaimer that, though I evaluate the screenplays nominated in this section, I have not read the source material for any of the five entries. My opinions and analysis relate to the screenplays as they are seen in their respective films, not the similarities/differences to their origins.
While the Best Original Screenplay category gives me a headache as I attempt to predict the eventual winner, Best Adapted Screenplay feels much more stable. Adapting from Robert Harris’ novel of the same name, “Conclave” screenwriter Peter Straughan picked up a number of key precursor awards that lay a path for its Academy win, including Best Adapted Screenplay wins at the BAFTAs and Critics’ Choice Awards and a general Best Screenplay win at the Golden Globes. Straughn even won Best Adapted Screenplay at the USC Scripter Awards.
“Conclave” may not be my favorite in this category, but it makes a worthy case. I have repeatedly heard “Conclave” affectionately referred to as an “airport novel,” portraying the same fast-paced pulp as many a John Grisham or Dan Brown adventure. Straughan’s adaptation maintains this sense of campy fun with moments of thematic poignance. I am unsurprised that Academy voters find it so compelling.
“Nickel Boys” screenwriters RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes deserve to win this category. Drawing from Colson Whitehead’s “The Nickel Boys,” Ross and Barnes adapt this story radically by placing audiences directly in the shoes of their protagonists. By writing this story from a first-person point of view, the screenwriting pair emphasizes empathy and perspective in this story about the abusive Dozier School for Boys. It’s a formally thrilling and distinctly cinematic way to approach the narrative. Were “Conclave” to look weaker in this category — or had “Nickel Boys” garnered more nominations — I would’ve been tempted to make this my prediction as well. I understand that some viewers find the choices in this screenplay alienating, but the inventiveness of this work feels undeniable.
Neither “Emilia Pérez” nor “A Complete Unknown” thrills me as a nominee. “Emilia Pérez” is a film of many problems, and I find several of them in its writing. Inconsistent characters, muddled arcs, odd messaging and a clear lack of research plague this film, getting in the way of its better pieces. The story of “Emilia Pérez” projects empathy and understanding, yet the film as a whole lacks it in any meaningful way.
I don’t mind “A Complete Unknown,” but most of its strengths lie in its technical elements and its performances — both musical and dramatic. I respect the story for taking a big swing. This biopic, seemingly by intent, avoids making any attempt at sharing who Bob Dylan is or why you should care about him on a deeper level. I butted up against this decision a few times during my watch, but I have to admire the approach.
I really love the nomination for “Sing Sing,” with a screenplay by Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar and additional story credits for Clarence Maclin and John “Divine G” Whitfield. The film tells a compelling story about prisoners participating in a theater program without becoming saccharine or feeling false. This is one of the finest movies of the year, and I wish it received more support across categories.
The “Dune: Part Two” omission in this category breaks my heart. Denis Villeneuve and Jon Spaihts radically restructure Frank Herbert’s novel to create a brilliant sci-fi blockbuster that stands beautifully on its own. In particular, the decision to bring Zendaya’s Chani to the forefront and allow viewers to see Paul Atreides’ descent through her eyes is a masterstroke.
My Preferential Ballot: “Nickel Boys,” “Conclave,” “Sing Sing,” “A Complete Unknown, Emilia Pérez”
My Alternate Nominees: “The Count of Monte-Cristo,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga,” “Hit Man,” “Queer”
Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
The Nominees: “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “A Real Pain,” “September 5,” “The Substance”
Predicted Winner: “A Real Pain”
In this category, we have a true two-horse race. Many pundits predict Sean Baker will take the prize in this category for “Anora,” and it certainly looks like the safer bet. Baker’s WGA win boosted his portfolio in this category, and the writer/director/editor’s slew of nominations could help propel him to the forefront of this lineup.
Yet I have a hard time counting against “A Real Pain.” Though the film only received two nominations (Best Original Screenplay and Best Supporting Actor), Jesse Eisenberg’s dramatic comedy picked up several smaller awards, particularly on the critics’ circuit. This doesn’t translate directly to the Oscars, but Eisenberg is a known, liked figure who has vocally supported this film throughout the awards season.
Beyond that, Eisenberg wrote an Academy-friendly screenplay for “A Real Pain.” This mix of drama and comedy, filled with laugh-out-loud moments and scenes of profound emotion, feels like a very written story, and I don’t say that as a dig. It’s a precise screenplay that’s also very showy — those are hard to respond poorly to. The screenplay categories often give the Academy a chance to reward films that are more off the beaten path, and “A Real Pain,” though celebrated, missed out on being a Best Picture nominee. In a year that lacked a clear Best Picture frontrunner for months, perhaps voters will want to spread the love. I do not anticipate Baker winning all four of his nominations, and while many think he will lose Best Editing to “Conclave,” Best Original Screenplay feels like the most likely miss to me.
Coralie Fargeat should not be counted out for the bizarre screenplay behind “The Substance.” This film proved to be a much bigger favorite this awards season than many anticipated. It must be noted that “The Substance” won the screenplay award at Cannes, and it picked up a win at Critics’ Choice as well. Though I prefer the direction, performances and technical elements of “The Substance” over the story on the page, I couldn’t be mad at a film like this becoming our screenplay winner.
Not to sound like a broken record, but this category would’ve been a good place to recognize “Challengers.” Justin Kurtizkes sharp dialogue and non-linear storytelling make the interpersonal conflicts of a throuple of athletes feel as thrilling as a tennis match. I like “September 5” well enough, but I would have much preferred that this be the lone screenplay nominee this year.
Another possible entry to make the Academy look cool in the Screenplay category, “I Saw the TV Glow” features some of the best, most poignant ideas of any film from 2024. It took me two tries to fully get in sync with Jane Schoenbrun’s vision of this film, but even the first time I walked away thinking that they wrote a fascinating, intelligent screenplay worthy of recognition.
My most personal pick on this list, I am astounded by the commitment to the bit found in “Hundreds of Beavers.” This movie has more jokes per minute than perhaps any other from 2024. What starts out feeling like an endurance test quickly becomes a thrilling escalation of humor in a feature-length running gag.
My Preferential Ballot: “A Real Pain,” “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “The Substance,” “September 5”
My Alternate Nominees: “Challengers,” “A Different Man,” “Ghostlight,” “Hundreds of Beavers,” “I Saw the TV Glow”
Best Director
The Nominees: Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Pérez”), Sean Baker (“Anora”), Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”), Coralie Fargeat (“The Substance”), James Mangold (“A Complete Unknown”)
Predicted Winner: Sean Baker (“Anora”)
With “Anora” poised to win Best Picture — and the director of the film’s biggest competition, “Conclave,” left out of this race — Sean Baker can be safely assumed to be the frontrunner in this category. Baker already won the DGA prize for this film, and “Anora” will want to pick up several awards on Oscar night for it to feel safe in Best Picture. Best Director is a surer thing than most.
Baker’s biggest competition is Brady Corbet, a director whose independently financed American epic “The Brutalist” made waves throughout the awards season. Corbet created an exemplary product in difficult circumstances, earning him serious clout as a director in this lineup. While “The Brutalist” itself might be every Academy voter’s speed, it’s possible they’ll want to reward the man behind the film for its perceived importance in the industry. This could very well be a “The Power of the Dog” / “CODA” situation where Best Director is given to a more challenging film and Best Picture is awarded elsewhere. Granted, “CODA” wasn’t nominated for Best Director, and it is far more comforting than anything found in “Anora.”
There was a time that Jacques Audiard would factor more heavily into this category’s predictions, but the director’s own comments alongside “Emilia Pérez’s” controversies as a whole will likely keep him from being competitive in this race. Coralie Fargeat seems like a better third place candidate for reasons similar to Corbet: not every Academy voter will vibe with “The Substance,” but you have to admit that Fargeat directed the hell out of it. She and Corbet compete for my favorite in this category through their sheer commitment to vision — something that should be rewarded in this category when executed properly. I additionally find myself drawn to Baker, who directs with an editor’s mind to great success. All three feel equally deserving of recognition.
The Best Director branch often avoids nominating blockbuster filmmakers, but this category once again glaringly excludes Denis Villeneueve. No filmmaker in 2024 matched the scope of his achievement, a perfectly calibrated epic with immense depth despite numerous moving parts. It may be a studio film, but “Dune: Part Two” feels every bit as personal to Villeneuve as the best nominees in this category.
Though Villeneuve’s omission can be written off as blockbuster aversion, the same can’t be said for RaMell Ross’ “Nickel Boys” exclusion. As stated in the Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay) category, Ross takes massive liberties in the telling of this story to immense success, redefining the way dramatic films like this can be told. For a first-time narrative director, Ross’ work is nothing short of masterful, and I suspect history will remember it as such.
In a similar vein, I expect Jane Schoenbrun to elevate in stature over the next few years. Their work on “I Saw the TV Glow” immediately heralded the director as “one to watch” among those unfamiliar with “We’re All Going to the World’s Fair,” the precursor to “I Saw the TV Glow” in Schoenbrun’s “Screen Trilogy.” Even friends who disliked this film have told me they are excited to see where Schoenbrun goes from here.
My Preferential Ballot: Coralie Fargeat, Sean Baker, Brady Corbet, James Mangold, Jacques Audiard
My Alternate Nominees: Luca Guadagnino (“Challengers”), Payal Kapadia (“All We Imagine As Light”), RaMell Ross (“Nickel Boys”), Jane Schoenbrun (“I Saw the TV Glow”) Denis Villeneuve (“Dune: Part Two”)
Best Picture
The Nominees: “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Conclave,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Emilia Pérez,” “I’m Still Here,” “Nickel Boys,” “The Substance,” “Wicked”
My Prediction: “Anora”
The past few years have been boring. Leading up to the night of the Academy Awards, everything seemed settled months in advance. No movie competed with the juggernaut of “Oppenheimer.” Early in the season, “Everything Everywhere All At Once” established itself as a frontrunner. Many of the big races, save a select few, felt clear long before the night of the ceremony.
This year was a return to form, a knock-down-drag-out race to the finish with multiple controversies, surprise nominees and shifting leaders. At separate points in the season, “Anora,” “Conclave,” “Emilia Pérez,” “Wicked” and “The Brutalist” all seemed to have a handle on the race and were ready to be declared early winners.
Arguably the first true frontrunner of the season, “Anora” seemed dead in the water for a while, failing to capitalize on the steam expected in several key races. Mikey Madison lost her status as the probable Best Actress winner somewhere along the way, and a horrendous showing at the Golden Globes weakened its prospects.
Now, things are looking up once again for Sean Baker’s Palme d’Or winner. “Anora” took home top prizes at the DGA, Critics’ Choice, Independent Spirit, PGA and WGA awards ceremonies. It is currently unclear what the win package for “Anora” is, as it seems to have a coin flip’s chance at best in most other categories. To strengthen its path to Best Picture, “Anora” will want to win some combination of the Best Director, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Original Screenplay and Best Editing nominations it received. Still, 2015’s “Spotlight” took home Best Picture with only a Best Original Screenplay win under its belt. Were “Anora” to miss out on several key races, it’s possible Academy voters would still choose to recognize the film as a whole.
Part of this comes down to the preferential ballot system. Rather than simply picking one winner like voters do in every other category, Best Picture allows Academy members to rank the 10 nominees in order of preference, with the winner being determined by an aggregate of said rankings. Even if “Anora” isn’t the number one film on most people’s lists, it’s possible it will grab enough two and three slots to compensate. The film speaks to a number of different sensibilities that could help it in this arena: it has powerhouse performances, intricate editing, strong direction and a powerful mix of high-energy comedy and emotional depth.
At this point, the biggest competition to “Anora” seems to be “Conclave,” which recently won the coveted Best Film and Outstanding British Film (a category “Anora” couldn’t compete in) prizes at the BAFTAs. “Conclave” also performs strong in a number of key categories that could help it take Best Picture — Best Adapted Screenplay seems like a lock, and many pundits have it taking Best Editing. Like “Anora,” “Conclave” is a movie that is both technically strong and very agreeable, with a fast pace and big performances. This might not get it a lot of one spots on the preferential ballot, but it will likely fall near the top for a great many voters.
Unlike “Anora,” “Conclave” suffers from lacking a Best Director nominee. Only three times in the past 20 years has a film won Best Picture without a director in competition. While the recent Outstanding Performance by a Cast win at SAG certainly helps “Conclave’s” chances, this win alone only gives the movie a coin flip’s chance — literally. 15 out of the 30 films to have taken this prize so far have gone on to win Best Picture. “Conclave” will tilt this statistic into either being mostly right or mostly wrong.
“The Brutalist” likely comes in at third place, a film that performed well at ceremonies like the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs but lost steam at other festivals. “The Brutalist” benefits from seemingly having more categories shored up than its biggest competitors: cinematography, score and actor all feel like relatively safe bets. Whereas “Anora” and “Conclave” will probably land near the top of many preferential ballots, “The Brutalist” is in a much different position. Oscar voters have commented on their unwillingness to make it through the 215-minute runtime, and the film has a far more challenging story than its competitors. Brady Corbet’s American epic will likely get a lot of ones and twos, as well as a lot of nines and 10s. If you want to be truly adventurous, place a bet on “The Brutalist,” but I wouldn’t venture further down in this list if you want to win.
At this point, it’s hard to say where “Emilia Pérez” has fallen. This year’s nomination leader, the French musical seemed like a juggernaut for a time, performing quite well at the Golden Globes. Following a series of controversies, it lost its status quickly. Though categories like Best Supporting Actress and Best Original Song still seem probable, it’s unlikely many voters will want to reward the film as a whole. Even Best International Feature, once an obvious win, looks doubtful for “Emilia Pérez.” Don’t expect this one to fare better than 2/13.
“A Complete Unknown” did surprisingly well on nomination morning, earning eight nods in total. It doesn’t hold frontrunner status in any category, with Timothée Chalamet’s Best Actor nod likely being its best chance at getting an award. The James Mangold nomination in Best Director is significant, as are the three acting nominations. “A Complete Unknown” may not be the big winner, but it clearly has industry support.
One of the biggest stories of the year, “The Substance” shockingly fared incredibly well for a horror movie — and a pretty disgusting one at that. This is not a film that will win Best Picture, and it will likely find itself at the bottom of many lists. Categories like Best Actress or Best Makeup and Hairstyling, though? Don’t anticipate “The Substance” going home empty-handed.
“Wicked,” likewise, picked up a significant number of nominations and will likely win a few below-the-line categories. With Jon M. Chu left out of Best Director and Winnie Holzman and Dana Fox left out of Best Adapted Screenplay, the blockbuster musical no longer has the hopes for Best Picture it once did.
“I’m Still Here” created the biggest shock on nomination morning when it entered the Best Picture race. Few (perhaps no) pundits listed it as a probable nominee among the eventual 10. While its three nominations will likely not carry it to the top prize, the weakening race of “Emilia Pérez” could very well allow “I’m Still Here” to take Best International Feature.
Back in March, “Dune: Part Two” was claimed as a very, very early frontrunner. Over the season, it continued to drop bit by bit until even its chances at a Best Picture nomination were vaguely worrying. Below-the-line support for this film wasn’t as strong as expected, and Denis Villeneuve once again missed out on Best Director. Perhaps the Academy is waiting to award “Dune: Messiah” like they did for “Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” — though “Messiah” isn’t exactly the crowd pleaser that “Return of the King” is.
Like “Dune: Part Two,” “Nickel Boys” was heralded by critics as an undeniable piece of art worthy of awards; the Academy’s nominations didn’t quite line up on that. Misses in Best Cinematography (which particularly shocks me) and Best Director greatly hurt this film’s chance at success. It’s of supreme quality, but, sadly, it likely came in toward the bottom of the nomination list.
I was dismayed by the omission of “Sing Sing,” which has been a favorite of mine since I saw it in July. This exceptional film felt like a potential winner in this category months ago, and a strange release strategy appears to have kept it from gaining the momentum needed to even garner a nomination.
“A Real Pain,” likewise, felt like a probable inclusion on this list, though it floated near the bottom. For a time, it looked like two out of the three films “Nickel Boys,” “A Real Pain” and “Sing Sing” would compete in Best Picture; the surprise addition of “I’m Still Here” in the category edged these last two out.
By now, I’m sure you can tell where my head is at for alternate nominees. I have well established that “Challengers” and “A Different Man” are two of the year’s finest films, and I wish they got the support needed to compete in this category. I only personally know one other person who watched “The Count of Monte-Cristo,” but we both thought it was one of 2024’s best blockbusters (and one of its best movies in general). The total shut-out of “Hard Truths,” though unsurprising, disappointed me.
My Preferential Ballot: “Dune: Part Two,” “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “Nickel Boys,” “The Substance,” “I’m Still Here,” “Conclave,” “Wicked,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Emilia Pérez”
My Alternate Nominees: “Challengers,” “The Count of Monte-Cristo,” “A Different Man,” “Evil Does Not Exist,” “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga,” “Hard Truths,” “I Saw the TV Glow,” “A Real Pain,” “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” “Sing Sing”
Of the 50 Academy Award nominees, I loved a great many. I encourage all readers to check out the films on these lists and discover some of the best movies 2024 has to offer. My fingers are crossed for “Anora,” and I can’t wait to see how this ceremony shakes out.