This week, the Oklahoma City Thunder have become the first team in this series to boast two rookies worthy of columns.
Cason Wallace doesn’t have the same media attention or size role as Chet Holmgren, but he’s nonetheless played a notable part in the Thunder’s success.
The stats don’t show it in the immediacy, but Wallace has maybe the highest ceiling of any guard selected in the 2023 NBA Draft. He just so happens to play on a team with an MVP candidate at point guard in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, limiting Wallace’s ability to be more ball-dominant than if another team had drafted him.
The former Kentucky Wildcat, who spent just one season playing college ball, showed flashes of being a go-to scorer under John Calipari’s tutelage, but ultimately his game-to-game inconsistency may have scared NBA teams off of selecting him higher than 10th.
In fact, the Thunder weren’t even the NBA team that technically picked Wallace. The Dallas Mavericks selected him on OKC’s behalf, dumping Dāvis Bertāns’ contract in the process to receive No. 12 overall Dereck Lively II. It proved a shrewd move for the Thunder, who managed to flip Bertāns with some other assets to acquire Gordon Hayward, some much-needed veteran experience.
This is just what Thunder general manager Sam Presti does. Whenever he sees an opportunity to turn a questionable asset into a promising young player he can develop in Oklahoma City, he takes it. He took Paul George’s presumable unwillingness to stay on the Thunder in free agency and extracted SGA and a battalion of picks from the Clippers. The No. 12 pick became not just Cason Wallace, but Hayward—again, Presti created more from seemingly less.
Now Wallace has the privilege of being Gilgeous-Alexander’s understudy. Two guards, both former Kentucky players, selected in almost identical spots in their respective drafts (SGA went at No. 11 to Walace’s 10).
That’s not to say the pair are similar players. Just in terms of their shot diets, over 50% of Wallace’s attempts come from beyond the three-point line, whereas Gilgeous-Alexander has just one season in his six-year career over 30%.
And even in the long term, once his rookie overeagerness dissipates, Wallace will likely be more of a black hole than SGA. Wallace has an 8.7% assist percentage—the per-possession rate at which a player assists a teammate’s field goal—compared to Gilgeous-Alexander’s 17.8% figure when he was a rookie on the Clippers, which has only risen to 30.3% in 2023-24. Of course, the frequency with which a player has the ball in his hands is a huge factor in the rate at which he can dish assists, so that number will hopefully grow for Wallace when he becomes a starter, either in OKC or elsewhere.
I say “or elsewhere” because head coach Mark Daigneault may need to find a way to keep SGA and Wallace on the floor together for 30-plus minutes per night starting as soon as next season. And if he can’t find a way to do that, Presti may fetch another king’s ransom for Wallace.
Admittedly, I’m being speculative here. Wallace currently averages 5.2 field goal attempts per game, 2.2 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 0.8 steals on 20.5 minutes per outing—nothing to write home about yet. But once or twice a month, he has a scoring burst where you can see it. He recently scored a career-high 22 points against the Memphis Grizzlies, going 4-6 from distance and tallying four assists. Let’s break down some tape from that game, in which Wallace’s spatial awareness shined:
When a defense lapses against Wallace, he strikes. In the clip above, Gordon Hayward’s drive into the paint forces Jaren Jackson Jr. closer to the rim to protect it, leaving Wallace unguarded. Seeing this sequence of events as it happens, the young guard drifts out the perimeter, where he receives the kick out from Hayward and sinks the three with ease, even as Jackson Jr. leaps out with his enormous frame to attempt a late shot contest. A similar thing happens here, where the Grizzlies defense just completely loses sight of Wallace.
Here, Wallace is Grizzlies forward Jake LaRavia’s assignment. Lu Dort brings the ball up the court and passes to Josh Giddey on the left wing, shifting the Grizzlies defense slightly in that direction. Wallace, the Thunder’s furthest player to the right, realizes that LaRavia has glanced away from his man as Giddey receives the ball, with no Grizzlies defender outside of Wallace. Seeing the space ahead of him and LaRavia’s momentary look-away, Wallace starts sprinting into the paint, Giddey fires a cross-court pass to him and Wallace has an easy lay-up attempt.
These two sequences show Wallace’s awareness of the whole court and ability to take advantage of opposing team’s putting weaker defenders on him or leaving him in space. As an off-the-bench piece for now, Wallace needs to continue in these situations, especially when he’s on the floor with multiple other threats in SGA and Holmgren. If he does, the coaching staff will surely notice his progress and increase his playing time, at which he’ll be an absolute flamethrower from deep.
Speaking of, Wallace leads all rookies in three-point percentage. Yep, you read that correctly. He’s above Brandon Miller, Brandin Podziemski and Jordan Hawkins, among others. At 41.9% in shots from distance, Wallace is almost three percentage points above second-place Holmgren. Now, he takes fewer attempts from beyond the arc than those other guys, but he also plays fewer minutes than them. When he’s on the floor, Wallace is flat-out efficient. Case in point:
And this:
Plus, three consecutive deep-hit highlights here:
And I would be remiss not to mention Wallace’s burst to the rim—he’s not just a three-point merchant. In this clip below from a game against the Warriors, Wallace takes advantage of a late close-out from Podziemski to pump-fake and then shift around the Warriors’ man to reach the rim, finishing through contact.
On top of all these offensive skills, Wallace holds his own defensively. At 6-foot-4 in shoes with a 6-foot-8.5 wingspan, Wallace can stand up to basically any one or two in the NBA with the mobility to stay in front of them. Watch him pick James Harden’s pocket here and score a transition dunk.
Or leaping out for a steal right in front of Victor Wembanyama:
Wallace has all the tools to be an All-Star guard: shooting, shiftiness and court vision. Plus, his solid man defense is the cherry on top. He has the benefit of playing for a winning team and learning from current and future All-Stars.
Now, it’s time to sit back and watch him do more of it.