Chet and Wemby. Wemby and Chet.
Two easy nicknames, two sides of the same basketball coin. The pair of big men will likely define the next decade and a half of NBA basketball with their ability to stretch the floor and dominate at the rim, particularly as shot-blockers.
Down the line, Victor Wembanyama will almost certainly have a column of his own, but this is not it. While the 7-foot-5 Frenchman has lived up to expectations as a game-breaker, his team, the San Antonio Spurs, have been frustratingly uncompetitive. They sit at a 8-35 record (as of Tuesday, Jan. 23), the worst in the Western Conference. If the Pistons hadn’t gone on a staggering 28-game losing streak, perhaps the Spurs’ lousiness would’ve been covered more closely.
For that reason, Victor will have to wait. Meanwhile, Chet Holmgren has already established himself as a difference-making, modern big at the NBA level.
We already knew that the Oklahoma City Thunder had a chance to be good. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had an MVP-esque season in 2022-23, averaging 31.4 points, 5.5 assists and 4.8 rebounds, leading a young team to 10th in the West. On top of that, they found breakout role players in Jalen Williams and Josh Giddey and played a fun brand of basketball. With his shooting ability (39.3% from deep so far in his NBA career), Williams has even looked like a future All-Star at times.
Going into 2023-24, Holmgren was just the cherry on top. And while he may not yet be the main course (shoutout to Chef Jude), he’s at least a hearty side salad.
As you may remember, the Thunder drafted Holmgren in the 2022 class after his phenomenal freshman season at Gonzaga where they reached the Sweet 16 at that year’s March Madness. But before the NBA season even began, he suffered a Lisfranc injury on his right foot that ruled him out for the year.
Holmgren would probably want his true rookie season back, but for NBA fans, him and Wembanyama entering the league at the exact same time has been a delight. Wembanyama currently ranks first in the league for blocks per game with 3.2, and Holmgren sits at fourth with 2.5. The Frenchman also edges out Holmgren in points per game, 20.3 to 17.3, but that’s mostly a function of Wemby being the Spurs’ first option when he’s on the floor.
The former Bulldog can also hang his hat on his efficiency, which his newfound rival has sorely lacked at times. While Wembanyama’s three-point shot remains somewhat theoretical, Holmgren makes them at a 38.6% clip on 4.2 attempts per game.
Most importantly, the Thunder are winning. At 30-13, they hold the tied-best record in the West, and only the Celtics have a better record across the entire league. Make no mistake, the Thunder are ready to contend this season. As such, don’t be surprised if General Manager Sam Presti—who’s been stockpiling first-round picks like a nuclear armageddon is coming—takes a trade deadline swing at a big target.
But even if the Thunder keep the team as-is, Holmgren’s immediate ascension to being one of the league’s premier stretch-fives will make them a hassle for any team in the West.
Holmgren’s combination of shooting and solid ball-handling means that opposing teams need to respect his playmaking from anywhere on the court. This progression from his 33-point, three-block performance against the Philadelphia 76ers in November shows exactly that:
Holmgren begins the play with the ball on the perimeter, forcing Joel Embiid to come check him, as the paint is otherwise vacant. Holmgren could’ve easily pulled up from here, as Embiid isn’t close enough to truly put his hand up to defend the shot, but with the 2022-23 MVP pulled out, Holmgren sees the opportunity to get downhill.
He dumps the ball off to Giddey and sets an easy pick on Tobias Harris, providing Giddey some space to maneuver. Meanwhile, Embiid is standing on the free-throw line, leaving the rim still completely unguarded.
Holmgren rolls out of the pick as soon as Giddey has a step on Harris and attacks the rim, guiding Giddey’s lob in with one hand for an easy two points.
Later in the same game, the Sixers put the smaller guard (and former Trojan!) De’Anthony Melton on Holmgren for a play, just to try and frustrate the big man when he has the ball. Against a lot of centers, a small guard can usually irritate a big man around his chest and torso in an attempt to prevent them from causing damage around the perimeter.
And while Melton could’ve battled a bit more aggressively in this sequence, Holmgren never appears bothered by the matchup. He attacks Melton from the left, then the right, pushing Melton closer to the basket, before spinning out of Melton’s reach and knocking down a push-floater with ease.
His strengths have shined, but that doesn’t mean Holmgren is perfect yet. Just last week, he and the Thunder had a rough road trip to Los Angeles, losing against both the high-flying Clippers and the downtrodden Lakers. Holmgren scored just 17 points between the two games, while the Clippers’ backup big men Mason Plumlee and Daniel Theis (Ivica Zubac was unable to play due to a calf injury) had a combined 23 points and 13 rebounds.
The Thunder will need to fortify their frontcourt if they really want to capitalize on Holmgren’s early excellence and another MVP-caliber year from SGA. Brooklyn’s Nic Claxton or even Cleveland’s Jarrett Allen might be available at the deadline depending on how close the Nets are to the Play-In or whether or not the Cavaliers think Evan Mobley and Allen will work together long-term. Presti has a cache of picks piled up, and now is the time to use them.
With his unique combination of individual and team excellence, the Rookie of the Year award should be Holmgren’s to lose.