Whether or not President Joe Biden wins the 2024 election may come down to whether voters see the election as a “referendum” on Biden or a choice between Biden and former President Donald Trump.
“If this election was a referendum on Joe Biden and only Joe Biden, I think we’re in more trouble than if this is a choice between Joe Biden and Donald Trump,” said Addisu Demissie, a Democratic campaign manager.
In a “referendum” election, Biden’s ability to get votes would depend on voters’ evaluation of his handling of the economy, border and other major issues, according to former Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus.
On Nov. 1, Demissie and Priebus joined the USC Center for the Political Future for a discussion about the 2024 presidential election.
Priebus was the White House chief of staff during the Trump administration and Demissie served as campaign manager to New Jersey Senator Cory Booker and Governor Gavin Newsom. Both Priebus and Demissie now serve as Center for the Political Future fellows for the fall semester.
Demissie said he expects Biden’s support to consolidate after party nominees are selected. He said the selection of Trump as the GOP nominee – which both Demissie and Priebus said they expect – would lead voters who are unhappy about the direction of the country but dislike Trump, to support Biden.
But, Demissie and Priebus also said third-party candidates could split the anti-Trump vote and potentially produce a Trump victory. They described a group of “100,000 people in six states” who they expect to decide the 2024 election, magnifying the effect of third-party candidates.
Priebus pointed to declines in support among voters in battleground states and among Black voters as signs of Biden’s weaknesses. Priebus also pointed to the national economy and geopolitical situation in the Middle East as undercutting Biden’s “fresh, decent, cut the nonsense kind of guy” message.
Demissie said that Democrats were unlikely to run on a message that focuses on portraying Trump as a threat to democracy, focusing instead on highlighting Biden’s accomplishments.
“Our side is going to make sure for the next 372 days that this is a choice election about Joe Biden and the leadership he’s provided versus the leadership that Trump would provide if he were President,” Demissie said.
Demissie said that would involve acknowledging the economic position of Americans while spotlighting the work Biden has done on issues like insulin pricing, climate resilience and student debt.
Both speakers highlighted economic issues as likely to play a heavy role in the campaign with Priebus also pointing to crime, the border and education as important issues.
Priebus said that for Republicans, targeting messaging around nuances of issues is likely to be more important to the election outcome. He described how the GOP might present one voter with a message about gun rights to promote safety amid rising crime rates and another with a message about the protection of gun rights in the Second Amendment.
“Broad strokes are great as a talking point. But that’s really not how we win elections,” Priebus said. “We win elections one person at a time, knowing everything about them, knowing what’s in their head.”
Demissie and Priebus felt unsure about the impact of the Israel-Hamas war and the Republican speakership battle on the election. The pair agreed that the impact of Biden’s decisions surrounding the war were difficult to predict given the significant time prior to the election.
At the end of the event, moderator and Center for the Political Future Executive Director Kamy Akhavan asked Demissie and Priebus to share what brings them hope in the political process.
“I want the kids and the students to see that you can have two folks up here that enjoy each other’s company, don’t agree, have a little bit of an argument, spar a little bit, have some fun and truly it’s normal,” Priebus said.