A potential ceasefire was allegedly brokered between the U.S. and Iran Wednesday, a move that came just one week after President Donald Trump said he was “strongly considering” pulling out of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). While Trump has teased the idea before, his statement to The Telegraph April 1 marked the strongest commitment displayed yet to leaving the international organization.
Prior to the start of his second term, the President said leaving NATO would be a possibility if they “didn’t pay their bills,” according to NBC New York. He later reaffirmed this in March, saying that the alliance was no longer necessary to the U.S., according to the Washington Post.
NATO, founded in 1949 after World War II, has served as one of the most influential alliances on the planet, with 32 member countries that span throughout North America and Europe.
Steven Lamy, professor of international relations at USC, said Trump’s comments were a continuation of the President’s long-standing animosity for NATO.
“He’s never been a fan of NATO,” Lamy said. “He thinks that NATO has taken money from the United States and taken resources, and not given anything back to us.”
According to NATO, the U.S. contributes a relatively small amount directly to NATO itself, giving around 15.8% of the alliance’s $3.5 billion expenditures budget — a share similar to Germany’s.
In return, the U.S. receives strategic and military support instead of direct financial compensation. NATO’s collective defense rule, known as Article V, outlines that allies are obligated to respond if a NATO country is attacked — a commitment invoked on behalf of the U.S. after the 9/11 attacks.
Annenberg Media spoke to multiple experts who all said Trump has the ability to pull the U.S. out of NATO. But that wouldn’t come without obstacles.
When asked what he believed, Lamy said predicting Trump was a futile exercise.
“He could do it. I don’t believe anything,” Lamy said. “Trying to predict [Trump] is like trying to predict USC football.”
Kal Raustiala, professor of comparative and international law at UCLA, said that Trump’s first legal battle would come domestically. He said he thinks that pulling out of NATO could cause backlash from within Capital Hill.
In 2023, Congress passed a law barring the president from suspending or withdrawing the U.S. from a treaty involving NATO unless it garnered two-thirds support from the Senate.
Raustiala said that he’s unsure about the likelihood of congressional approval, saying that while Congress has often been “accomodating” to Trump, NATO could mark a shift in their response.
“NATO is a very significant American commitment that goes back 75 years,” Raustiala said. “That commitment … is also a massive part of American credibility in the international sphere.”
If Trump does follow through, experts say it would have significant global ramifications.
With Trump’s threats to pull out of NATO, Lamy said that the U.S. risks its allies distancing themselves from it.
“NATO countries and the European Union [are] talking about strategic autonomy,” Lamy said. “The French just changed their nuclear policy … [and] the President of Finland has come out and talked about the idea of building a separate alliance from the United States.”
Lamy said that he was not sure they could develop that autonomy, but that they have the capacity to. He believes that this could create an extended alliance between the European Union and countries such as Japan, South Korea and Australia.
Steve Swerdlow, professor of political science and international relations at USC, said that he does not believe Trump will follow through on his threats. However, he said that even the President’s comments could damage the US’s relationships with its allies.
“While I don’t believe Trump will follow through on his threats, one thing is clear: democratic traditional allies of the United States like the UK, France and Spain are distancing themselves day by day,” Swerdlow said.
Lamy speculates that there was some capacity for renewed Chinese economic engagement in the wake of Trump deteriorating the US’s alliances. This came after Canada signed new trade partnerships with China in January, and French President Emmanuel Macron called for increased foreign direct investment from them at the World Economic Forum in January.
“They have to. They have a broader view of economic security, and they know that China is a valuable trading partner,” Lamy said. “The United States is an uncertain partner, and China is interested in trade.”
A pullout from NATO could also have ramifications on the U.S., as the war on Iran continues to escalate andTrump continues to call for allies to join the U.S. efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
“This has profoundly negative implications for America’s standing in the world and for the safety and security of Americans,” Swerdlow said.
Swerdlow said that Trump’s messaging moves the U.S. towards authoritarianism.
“His haranguing and harassing is further confirming the realignment of the United States with the authoritarian world,” he said. “He’s engaging in a rapprochement with Russia and China and distancing himself from our democratic allies.”
Arthur Stein, professor of political science at UCLA, likened Trump’s potential withdrawal from NATO to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which remained closed for over the past month..
“Just as Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz without actually closing it, Trump has cast great doubt about the U.S. commitment to fulfilling its treaty obligations under NATO,” Stein said in a statement to Annenberg Media.
Many U.S. allies, including France, have not been willing to provide military support for American efforts in the Strait of Hormuz.
Macron also criticized Trump’s decision threatening withdrawal from NATO on April 2 during a state visit to South Korea.
“We all need stability, calm, a return to peace – this isn’t a show!” Macron said.
Raustiala said that this could further stoke divisions between the U.S. and its allies and would “cement the reluctance that our traditional allies have to get involved in Iran at all,” if Trump followed through on his threats.
“We have been advantaged for decades by the fact that we have such a large network of allies around the world,” Raustiala said. “And that’s been a force multiplier for the United States, and that’s been well understood by Republicans and Democrats alike for decades.”