As the Los Angeles mayoral primary election approaches, incumbent Karen Bass’ likelihood of reelection becomes less certain as new polls show conflicting results on how Angelenos will vote in June.
A recent poll from Loyola Marymount University drew attention when it reported that L.A. City democratic socialist Councilmember Nithya Raman was polling far ahead of Bass. The results showed that 32.5% of poll participants would vote for Raman, while only 17% would favor Bass’ reelection.
The Loyola Marymount poll, which featured input from 370 registered voters in L.A. County, was conducted from Feb. 11 to March 16, and included questions involving race, gender, age, income, education and political preference. The poll did not allow participants to remain undecided.
Aayushi Garg, a sophomore majoring in public policy and data analytics, said that despite supporting Raman, she was shocked when she first saw the poll.
“The majority of LA voters…are just not tapped into the race yet, which I think is very normal. It’s a couple of months before the primary,” Garg said. “People are just starting to get into it. And so I think the undecided block is really important to portray correctly.”
Forty percent of voters are still unsure of their top choice for the June 2 primary, according to a poll published a few days ago by UCLA Luskin, which surveyed 813 voters. In the UCLA poll, Raman trailed Bass, polling at 9% to Bass’ 25%.
Despite falling behind Bass in the UCLA poll, Raman’s success in the LMU poll informed voters on her policy stances.
Diego Andrades is the assistant director of the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future. Andrades said that since many people might not be familiar with all of the candidates, not much can be “extrapolated” from the poll.
“What it does say is that for an incumbent mayor, this is a really scary position that she might be in because she’s underwater,” said Andrades.
Despite Bass’ incumbency power, other polls suggest threats to her popularity among Angelenos. A recent poll by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times found Bass has a 56% disapproval rating among likely voters.
“After things like the LA fires or just [other] unpopular events, there’s a hankering for change,” Garg said. “So I do think that Raman has a chance of moving forward.”
Raman isn’t the only candidate on the ballot challenging Bass. Reality TV personality Spencer Pratt, along with Democratic socialists Rae Huang and Adam Miller, are also in the running.
In UCLA’s poll from Friday, Pratt was just ahead of Raman with 11% of votes, but still far behind Bass. However, a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll of 840 voters from March showed conflicting support for Raman and Pratt. In the Berkeley poll, Raman came in second at 17%, with Pratt in third with 14%. Bass still polled at 25%.
“Polls can be really, really predictive, but you do have to take it with a grain of salt,” said Andrades. “Once we get an average of polls from a different variety of pollsters and public institutions, we’ll really get a good litmus test of where voters are before ballots are turned in come June.”
For now, Garg said she remains undecided between Huang and Raman. Just like the polls, she is split between the candidates and their policies, and despite leaning toward Raman, she hopes she’ll know more come June to make her final decision.