Los Angeles County has the largest population decrease out of any county in the United States, according to data from the U.S. Census released Thursday.
About 54,000 fewer people were recorded last July from the previous year, and experts say the numbers aren’t going to increase anytime soon.
“By 2050, we’re anticipating the population to be pretty much flat, pretty much the same as it was in ‘24 or ‘25, about a 0.9% decrease,” said Kevin Kane, regional planner in the Research & Analysis department of the Southern California Association of Governments.
In an interview with Annenberg Media, Kane cited a decrease in fertility rates as one central cause for the drop off.
According to Kane, fertility rates must meet two children per mother for an area to maintain a steady population.
“That’s a heck of a lot below two,” said Kane.
Kane also pointed to the high cost of living as one reason for falling fertility rates in the county. The Economic Research Institute has reported that L.A. currently has a 75% higher cost of living when compared to the other cities in the United States.
However, lower fertility rates reflect a steady, global drop in the metric. Immigrants arriving in Los Angeles are having fewer children, said Kane.
Part of this development comes from the fertility rate which is projected to drop from 1.43 to 1.27 in 2050, according to a long range projection prepared by the Southern California Association of Governments.
Kane said the decreasing trend in population could continue over the coming years.
Kane also noted that dwindling immigration rates from Latin America and Asia could combine with stricter federal immigration policy to prevent population growth in the county’s future.
“We’re anticipating that to have a pretty long standing impact,” said Kane. “The reason is immigration is really what has been maintaining Southern California’s population and employment base.”
Kane predicts L.A. County will experience little to no job growth in the 2030s, and he expects decreasing employment growth to follow.
“When we last did a regional plan, we were anticipating employment growth, to be really, pretty substantial,” Kane said. Predicted rates of 13% between 2024 and 2050 are now expected to fall to 1.3%.
In light of the projections, Kane said the falloff in population could be an opportunity for L.A. County to address some of its most pressing issues. Despite the population decline, household projections have seen substantial growth due to continued increase in housing being built.
“The hope is that combined with good, strong, supportive policy that actually reduces things like overcrowding and eventually even factors like homelessness,” said Kane. “That’s a bit of what you could think of as potentially a silver lining.”