Iran expanded its warnings beyond military targets in a statement on X on Saturday, declaring U.S.-affiliated universities in the Middle East “legitimate targets” in a move experts say signals a dangerous broadening of the conflict.
The statement follows U.S.-Israeli strikes on Isfahan University of Technology and Tehran University of Science and Technology overnight over the weekend, which damaged buildings but caused no reported casualties. Iranian officials said retaliation would continue until “two universities are struck” in response.
“It definitely shows that the conflict is expanding quite widely,” said Ciruce Movahedi-Lankarani, Farhang Foundation Chair in Iranian Studies and assistant professor of Middle East Studies and environmental studies, adding that the shift from military to civilian-linked sites is worrying.
“We’re clearly seeing that institutions or sites that are primarily civilian are now being treated as legitimate targets,” he said.
The warning issued by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on X raises concerns for American university campuses operating in countries such as Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Lebanon, where thousands of students and faculty are based.
The American University of Beirut announced it would transition to remote learning for two days in response to the recent threats.
“At this time, we have no evidence of direct threats against our university, its campuses or medical centres. At the same time, out of an abundance of caution, we will operate fully online on Monday and Tuesday, with the exception of essential personnel,” AUB President Fadlo Khouri said in a statement on Sunday.
This escalation comes as U.S. President Donald Trump signals that negotiations to end the war may be nearing a deal, while simultaneously threatening further military action.
Trump said Monday that talks are showing “great progress” and suggested an agreement “could be made fairly quickly,” according to statements reported by multiple outlets. At the same time he warned that he would “obliterate” Iran’s energy sector — including power plants and other vital infrastructure, like desalination systems — if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to reports by the Associated Press.
Experts say that diplomatic messaging paired with threats reflects a broader pattern of the current administration.
“This is a very Trumpian approach,” Jonathan Aronson, a professor of communication and international relations, said. “He threatens, then backs off. He goes back and forth.”
“Nobody really knows what he actually believes,” Aronson added. “Right now, everything is confused.”
The Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, attribution has already become a central pressure point in the conflict. Disruptions have contributed to rising oil prices and fears of broader economic fallout. As of Monday evening, crude oil prices hover at around $103 per barrel.
Aronson warned that U.S. strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure could drive prices even higher and prolong economic instability across the world.
“Even if a ceasefire were reached, you can’t just turn production back on overnight, especially if oil facilities have been bombed,” he said.
Despite Trump’s claims of progress, Iranian officials have denied direct negotiations with Washington, D.C. Esmaeil Baghaei, a spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry, called U.S demands to end the conflict “excessive, unrealistic, and illogical”.
Political analysts said the disconnect may reflect deeper instability within both governments.
“There has been a lot of incoherence on both sides,” Movahedi-Lankarani said. “On the Iranian side, it’s not super clear to what (extent) the voices that are speaking are actually representative of the entire government.”
He added that internal divisions could mean “one faction could be negotiating and another trying to undercut them,” complicating any potential agreement.
President Trump set an informal deadline for further escalation last Thursday on social media, pushing Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
“As per Iranian Government request, please let this statement serve to represent that I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 P.M., Eastern Time,” he wrote on Truth Social.
Beyond economic consequences, Trump’s threats to target energy and water infrastructure have raised concerns among human rights observers. Experts warn that attacks on civilian systems could violate international law and worsen humanitarian conditions.
Meanwhile, the expansion of targets to universities underscores a broader shift in the nature of the war.
“We’ve already seen it move from military to infrastructure,” Movahedi-Lankarani said. “And now clearly, it’s not slowing down.”
While military exchanges continue and regional actors are increasingly drawn in, both experts agree that the war’s trajectory remains uncertain.
“At this point,” Aronson said, “It’s anybody’s guess.”
Contributing report by Yinzhen Wu.