Mexico faces violence, unrest after killing of cartel leader with U.S. assistance

On Sunday, Mexican Special Forces killed Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, a Mexican cartel leader better known as “El Mencho,” in a raid targeting one of the nation’s most notorious drug operations, the New York Times reported.

Waves of violence from cartel members followed the attack, inciting fear from civilians and killing at least 70 people, including 25 members of the Mexican National Guard, according to the Associated Press.

According to a report from NBC, cartel members from the Jalisco New Generation Cartel responded to Oseguera Cervantes’ death by blocking roads with burning cars and buses across Mexico for several hours.

“We’re talking about someone that is almost at the same level as ‘El Chapo’ Guzman,” former United States Drug Enforcement Administration Chief of International Operations Mike Vigil told CBS News.

A former leader of the Sinaloa cartel, Guzman trafficked billions of dollars in drugs such as marijuana, cocaine, heroin and methamphetamine. The United States Justice Department deemed Guzman “one of the world’s most prolific, violent and powerful drug cartels.”

Oseguera Cervantes split from the Sinaloa Cartel in 2011 and formed the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. The DEA described the Jalisco New Generation Cartel as “one of the most significant threats to the public health, public safety, and national security of the United States.” The administration’s notice listed a reward of up to $15 million for information leading to the arrest of Oseguera Cervantes.

Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera, a professor at George Mason University who specializes in United States-Mexican relations, said that when a cartel’s leadership is defeated, killed or extradited, extreme periods of violence ensue in the chaos left behind.

Izzy, a junior majoring in public relations and advertising that asked not to use his full name out of fear for his family’s safety, shared his father’s response to El Mencho’s death with Annenberg Media. As a Mexican immigrant living in the San Fernando Valley, Izzy’s father spoke with his family, who live in western Mexico and were fearful after the attack.

The following quote is translated from the original Spanish.

“Son, it is a disaster. After I found out about the death of El Mencho, I called my mother and her family and they were all scared,” he said. “As you know they live in Guadalajara, the capital of Jalisco, and the city appears to be a ghost town. The violence is at its highest point at this moment. Everybody is afraid and they have yet to return to work out of fear.”

Multiple airlines, including American Airlines, United, Southwest, Delta, Alaska and Air Canada, cancelled flights on Sunday and early Monday to parts of Jalisco State, including Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara, CBS reported.

The same report noted that at least half of the flights to Puerto Vallarta International Airport were cancelled, and over 60% of originating flights were canceled.

On Sunday, the U.S. Department of State issued an ongoing security warning advising that all American citizens in Jalisco State, Tamaulipas State and areas of Michoacan State, Guerrero State and Nuevo Leon State seek shelter and stay in place.

In a press conference on Monday morning, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum claimed that order had been restored overnight after roadblocks were cleared and fires set to supermarkets and other businesses were quelled. Sheinbaum expects flights from Puerto Vallarta, Guadalajara and Mazatlan to resume on late Monday or Tuesday.

In a post on X, United States Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt cited the United States’ role in the attack.

“The United States provided intelligence support to the Mexican government in order to assist with an operation in Talpalpa, Jalisco, Mexico, in which Nemesio ‘El Mencho’ Oseguera Cervantes, an infamous drug lord and leader within the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, was eliminated,” Leavitt said.

Unlike past administrations, the Trump administration and new Mexican government have been more aggressive in their tactics of combatting drug cartel operations, according to Pamela Starr, a USC professor of political science and international relations.

“[The events are] definitely going to improve US-Mexico relations because the United States sees that Mexico is serious about going after kingpins, which is what the United States wants the country to do,” Starr said.

In the coming months, Starr expects to see violence increase across the states where the Jalisco cartel’s operations are most concentrated.

“Historically, when Mexico has taken out the leaders of major organized crime syndicates, it has led to a dramatic increase in violence as members of the syndicate fight over who gets to be the new leader and as other syndicates try to take advantage of a weakened state of their competitor and expand their territory and their operations,” Starr said.

However, Correa-Cabrera said circumstances may not change in the long-term, as the cartels will reconfigure their plans and adapt to their new conditions once a leader disappears.

“If you don’t dismantle the network of protection, then the demand for supply in different illicit markets surges,” Correa-Cabrera said.

Even so, Starr added that organized crime does not target civilians outside of extortion operations, so she expects most of the ensuing violence to stem from internal conflict within the cartel, among different organized crime syndicates, and between cartels and the government.

“It’s scary to go to school, to go out when there’s violence, but (civilians are) not the targets. So that’s the bit of solace I guess I can give to Americans living in Mexico, tourists visiting Mexico and to Mexicans themselves,” Starr said. “This is not a big difference from what Mexico’s experienced before, but it is going to probably be a problematic few months ahead.”