Two Wednesdays ago, the LA Kings pushed their chips to the center of the table, acquiring star forward Artemi Panarin from the New York Rangers. But for a team trending in the wrong direction after their two games before the break, how much of an impact will Panarin make, and will it even be enough to get this team into the last 16?
The answer is hardly a simple one. If looking at the Kings’ first 56 games through the eye-test and basic statistics, you’d see a team capable of staying in games, but lacking a “punch” to gain an edge over their opponents. The team seems slow on the puck and almost feels “stuck” during many of their games. But advanced analytics tell a different story, and may provide more optimism depending on how they are interpreted.
As the NHL is on hiatus for the Winter Olympics in Milano-Cortina, the Los Angeles Kings find themselves outside of a playoff spot. A 23-19-14 record (60 points) places them 5th in the Pacific and as the first team behind the Anaheim Ducks (63 points), for the second wild card spot in the West. That “winning” record, however, is very deceiving.
LA has been an incredible beneficiary of the NHL’s loser point, awarded to teams who lose in either overtime or a shootout. Their 14 overtime losses (OTLs) share the league-lead with the Vegas Golden Knights, and are only four away from the NHL record of 18. The Kings would only be 23-33 if combining losses and OTL’s into the same category. Moreover, their 14 regulation wins, the NHL’s tiebreaking category, is second-to-last in the Western Conference ahead of only the Vancouver Canucks - who are the worst team in the league.
Are things that bleak? Absolutely not. The Kings are clearly good enough to stay with their opponents, proven by the massive amount of matchups that have been tied after 60 minutes. Their -15 goal differential ranks right around the middle of the pack in the West, proving that at least Los Angeles is not among the league’s worst teams. But despite the worrying assumptions, the Kings do still find themselves very much alive, and after adding to the roster, it’s clear they are willing to make a push to improve.
There is one thing most people can agree on: the Kings can defend - REALLY well. Their 155 goals against ranks 3rd best in the NHL, and slots behind only Colorado and Tampa Bay, who currently both sit atop the Western and Eastern conferences, respectively. Los Angeles has the same placement in Expected Goals Against (xGA), according to MoneyPuck, meaning their actual results are similar to what the advanced analytics forecast.
Goaltending is a strength for the Kings and an additional asset in terms of goal-prevention. Both Darcy Kuemper and Anton Forsberg have save percentages over .900, and have a combined Goals Saved Above Expected of 10.5. Forsberg’s strong play over recent weeks has created somewhat of a goalie controversy, but that’s a conversation for another day.
The struggle for LA is no secret: scoring. Simply put, the Kings cannot score goals, and their inability to create offense was a major reason General Manager Ken Holland acquired Panarin last week. While the Kings’ defensive numbers are incredible, their offensive metrics are poles apart. Some could say the two are like chalk and cheese.
At the break, the Kings have scored 142 goals, ahead of only the Calgary Flames and second-to-last in the NHL. Their 107.5 expected goals for (xGF) ranks 7th worst, showing some slightly bad luck but a generally consistent trend in lack of offense. Through 56 games last season, LA scored 162 goals. While still ranking only 21st out of 32, it is tremendously better, and paired with the second-fewest goals against, it made for a more well-rounded team. LA’s offense also picked up dramatically during the second half of last-season, a surge we have yet to see this year.
After all Jim Hiller is a defensive coach, so one would expect the team’s defensive metrics to outperform their offense. However, what makes the Kings’ defensive numbers this season impressive is that only two defensemen are having arguably good “analytical” seasons. When looking at a chart of defensemen’s expected goal share, only Drew Doughty (#8) and Brandt Clarke (#92) have both a positive xGF and xGA according to HockeyStats.com. These numbers come despite a flurry of complaints about Doughty’s play as of late. Even Mikey Anderson (#44), the Kings’ supposed best shutdown defenseman, is having a pretty mediocre season analytically, as seen on the chart.
Mind you, these numbers are at even strength, and a lot of Anderson’s value comes on the penalty kill. His stats can also be attributed to the fact that he leads all Los Angeles defencemen in ice time (TOI) and that 16.3% of his shifts start in the defensive zone, the second-highest on the team according to Moneypuck. That percentage is only beaten by Joel Edmundson (#6), who is clearly having a rough go this season.
I would also argue that Doughty’s numbers are actually inflated because he plays with Anderson, and that Anderson’s numbers take a hit from being paired with Doughty. Anderson is purely a stay-at-home defenseman, and it thus allows Doughty to be more involved with the play, which correspondingly leaves Anderson behind unable to make up for Doughty’s loss of speed.
The moral of this story is that the Kings aren’t a good defensive team simply because of a good D-corps; it’s because of Jim Hiller’s system as a whole. Los Angeles’ TEAM DEFENSE works wonders, and does a great job at suffocating opponents and preventing high-danger chances.
This is where the drop in offense comes from. In the offseason, the team replaced arguably their best all-around d-man in Vladislav Gavrikov and arguably their best puck-moving d-man in Jordan Spence with Cody Ceci and Brian Dumoulin. While the two have been serviceable, they are a severe downgrade from last year’s group and do not skate or transition play well. The drop in D-corps ability requires the forwards to pick up the slack in their own end, which would directly lead to a drop-off in goal scoring and high-danger chance generation.
Los Angeles actually does a good job of controlling play through 60-minutes, and at 5-on-5. A 51.66 expected goals percentage (xG%), ranks 7th in the NHL, according to moneypuck. The Kings also have the 6th-best shot attempt percentage, or Corsi %, in the league. So what is the issue?
Enter the Artemi Panarin trade, a move Ken Holland thinks could severely change the Kings’ fortunes, and with good reason. Despite controlling play and outplaying their opponents, the Kings cannot generate high-danger chances or finish the ones they create. Not only are the Kings near the bottom of the NHL in expected goals, but they are also third worst in goals scored above expected, with -17.3 according to HockeyStates.com.
Not helping the cause is the regression of key forwards as well. Quinton Byfield, who was expected to take the next step and establish himself as a legit top-line center in the NHL, has failed to do so, and instead has been extremely underwhelming. Byfield has 30 points (11G/19A) in 55 games this year, and is on pace to fall behind his goal totals last season despite logging the most TOI of his career. His shooting percentage has dropped an astounding five percentage points from last season, from 14.6% to 9.6%.
As seen in the card above, Byfield is driving play and creating opportunities. However, his finishing, like the rest of the team, has cratered. He has also struggled mightily in the faceoff dot this year, winning only 42.4% of his draws according to MoneyPuck. Byfield does still provide value through his skating, as he has the second-highest top speed of any Kings skater behind only Adrian Kempe. Panarin will likely play alongside Byfield, and Hiller and Holland hope his arrival will spur Byfield’s production and turn the top-6 around.
Los Angeles is also relying on Panarin to fix the power play. Currently, it ranks fourth-worst in the NHL at just 16%. LA’s power play also has the worst expected goal share in the entire league, as shown by the graph below by HockeyStats.com.
Will Panarin single-handedly fix LA’s problems? Probably not. But to me, Holland’s moves over the past week and rumblings of future trades for centers imply his acknowledgment that he did his head coach a disservice during the off-season. It seems that he’s giving his coach one last chance with an injection of talent on the roster. Holland is banking that Los Angeles’ underlying numbers tell the real story.
These analytics are also likely why the Kings still have a 55.4% chance of making the playoffs, according to MoneyPuck. If the team is not able to turn its season around after the roster change, I find it hard to see how Hiller returns behind the bench in the fall; nevertheless, Los Angeles is going all in for Kopitar’s last season, and hopes Panarin is the missing piece to unlock their offensive capabilities. The turnaround will be made even more difficult, given the team has likely lost Kevin Fiala for the rest of the season after an injury at the Olympics on Friday.