New York City, the most populous city in the United States, elected last month its first Democratic Socialist mayor, 34-year-old Zohran Mamdani. He appealed to many New York voters by campaigning on affordability.
Some policy experts are concerned about the many platforms that got him elected are not his to enact.
Government media relations expert Ken Frydman says many of Mamdani’s policies are more idealistic than practical.
“We all want what’s best for the city,” Frydman said. “He succeeds, we succeed, but he’s going to need help getting his agenda accomplished, certainly from Albany, from Governor Kathy Hochul…We’re already running at a $5 billion deficit, so his economic policies are just going to add to that.”
Frydman has worked as a public relations strategist for clients such as the New York City Department of Education, the largest public school district in the nation, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, and others.
Gov. Hochul said she would not approve some of Mamdani’s policy proposals, including free public transport or raising taxes on wealthy New York City residents.
“We’re spending a lot of money, so I cannot set forth a plan right now that takes money out of a system that relies on the fares of the buses and the subways,” Hochul said. “But can we find a path to make it more affordable for people who need help? Of course we can.”
Many of Mamdani’s policies, which inspired a voter turnout not seen in 60 years, have yet to been implemented or tested in other major cities, such as his proposed free public bus system.
Currently, these buses cap fares at $34 per week, meaning that riders can ride free after about 12 rides. Additionally, the MTA employs a Reduced-Fare program for the elderly and low-income, costing $1.45 per ride.
However, Mamdani said these costs are too burdensome for many New Yorkers..
“This is a policy that is for those who drive the bus, those who ride the bus, and everyone in between,” Mamdani said during a press conference in October.
Professor Mark Phillips, an expert in tax and financial policy at the USC Sol Price School of Public Policy, said the free buses could be a net positive.
“You’re trying to free up some of their disposable income,” Phillips said when speaking of the economically disadvantaged New Yorkers this policy intends to aid. “Making it accessible might mean there are some people who are currently priced out of using the bus system…this facilitates them using the bus system, being more connected with the rest of the city.”
However, Frydman said he doesn’t think the city can afford to discontinue bus fares.
“The MTA is already losing half a billion dollars on fare evasion on city buses,” Frydman said.. “Maybe reduce the fare, but not free. It could lead to other issues like the homeless riding the buses all day, so you know, careful what you wish for.,” Frydman said.
Frydman, however, points out that “the stars might be aligned” for Mamdani, with the current City Council, State Legislature and State Assembly.
“Hochul is probably going to have to make concessions that she wouldn’t otherwise make if she wasn’t running for reelection next year,” Frydman said. “You need support downstate [to win], but she’s always been a finger-in-the-wind politician, and now she needs to decide: Does she support him or doesn’t she? Does it cut both ways? Is it a net plus or not?”
However, when other cities have attempted to implement policies similar to Mamdani’s, they’ve faced serious budget shortfalls.Kansas City saw a 39% decrease in safety and security incidents within the first year of the program after public transportation fares were canceled in 2019.
Due to budget shortfalls and the threat of significant service cuts and layoffs, the city government reimplemented a $2 fare policy.
Part of how Mamdani would intend to make up for the revenues is by raising corporate taxes and income taxes on millionaires, which he estimates will raise $9 billion.
The Cato Institute has called these plans “wishful thinking,” contending that all affected firms and individuals keeping their behavior unchanged is an unlikely scenario. Phillips said that jobs and professional networking opportunities could still retain the city’s wealthy population.
“If you want to explain why our millionaires are not leaving New York in droves, it’s because [it] has a lot of other things that they want to be there for,” Phillips said. “Whatever you gain in taxes, moving to another state might not be worth it in terms of what you’re going to lose in terms of your job opportunities, networking, and everything else.”
Marlon G. Boarnet, a professor of urban planning and spatial analysis and director of the METRANS Transportation Consortium at the USC Sol Price School of Public Policy, recently published a study researching transportation in California, alongside two USC Ph.D. candidates.
The study associates reductions in transit time and transit cost by 10% with a 24.63% and 5.03% increase in transit trips, respectively, “suggesting that reducing travel time is more effective in increasing transit ridership than lowering fares.”
The New York City subway system alone contains the largest number of stations of any subway system in the world with about 500 stations, 27 service lines and about 665 miles of mainline track.
Boarnet saw in his study that the reduction of public transportation fare does not increase ridership or benefit the economically disadvantaged.
“People initially focus on price more than quality…with quality, it’s tougher to see the nexus,” Boarnet said. “Price is the easy kind of thing to conceptualize, but I think the caution I would provide for transit policy is that all those quality indicators matter to the ridership experience.”
Farebox revenue, which is the total revenue collected from public transportation fares, is a vastly miniscule part of the MTA’s budget, though the MTA includes much more than New York City, covering about 5,000 square miles across the tri-state area.
“I think one thing the free fare idea overlooks is that most people, including people who are very poor, are motivated by both price and quality, and I think there’s a risk that is not really being elevated in the discussion,” Boarnet said. “Most of these agencies rely to some extent on farebox revenues. Typically, the farebox revenues are a small fraction of their revenues. LA Metro garners 10% or less from farebox revenues.”
New York City has a long-standing rent stabilization program, with an estimated 784,000 units rent stabilized as of 2022, the number down from about 880,000 before the pandemic, according to The City.
Mamdani said he would make up for the lost revenue by collecting fines on landlords, as part of a greater proposed crackdown on landlords and promotion of more affordable housing.
Another one of Mamdani’s principal tenets is the goal of raising the minimum wage to $30 by 2030.
USC Price professor Moussa Dion co-authored a 2021 study that found that in 25 states that raised their minimum wage between 2000 and 2008, out of 41 states, lease defaults sank 10.6%. New York City and its suburban counties hold a minimum wage of $16.50, $1 more than the rest of the state.
A Columbia University Center on Poverty and Social policy study in 2023 similarly found that annual wages of minimum wage workers rose by 66% between 2016 and 2019, to $20,600.
In 2016, these workers were an average of $300 above the federal poverty line, but were more than $8,000 above it by 2019.
A 2023 report published by the Office of the New York City Comptroller on the minimum wage stated that more than one million individuals, or about 14% of New York City workers, worked minimum wage jobs.
Such a rise would provide a significant economic advantage to millions of New Yorkers, if Mamdani achieves this goal. In the period between 2020 and 2025, the minimum wage for New York City workers was raised by 10%.
To achieve his goal by 2030, Mamdani would need to raise the minimum wage to about 82% during a shorter period of time. He would also need the approval of the New York State Legislature and Hochul.