On par with this season’s absurd fashion, five-loss Duke has a path to a Playoff berth. Even more astoundingly, a more likely scenario exists where the ACC doesn’t have a postseason participant at all. This Saturday will feature college football’s first No. 1 versus No. 2 matchup since 2022, but that’s possibly the least intriguing story of the weekend.
Indiana and Ohio State’s parallel flawless runs will collide in the Big Ten Championship this Saturday. The Buckeyes, who finally managed to conquer the Michigan hump, are seeking out their first Big Ten title since 2020. Similarly, Indiana just capped its first 12-0 regular season in program history with a 56-3 throttling of Purdue. The nation’s only undefeated teams will go toe-to-toe in Indianapolis, but its bearing on the national landscape is minimal. Both squads have long since locked down Playoff invites and a loss may not even preclude either from a first-round bye.
South of the Mason-Dixon, things get much more consequential. Kirby Smart will try to dispel his Alabama SEC Championship Game demons as the Dawgs take a second shot at the Tide. The two-time national champion is 0-5 against Alabama in Atlanta, and quarterback Gunner Stockton’s middling output against Georgia Tech doesn’t inspire optimism about a change of course. The Dawgs will score a Playoff bid regardless of its performance, but a win would guarantee a top-four slot.
The Crimson Tide’s faithful may feel less secure about their CFP odds. With a loss, its fate will depend on happenings elsewhere, namely BYU and Virginia’s showings in their respective title games. In the unlikely event BYU can pull off the upset in Dallas, the Tide might be on the ropes, especially considering their dumbfounding Week 1 flub at now 4-8 Florida State, but a regular season victory at Georgia would likely keep them from plummeting if they come up short this time around.
While the SEC determines whether it will have four or five teams in the Playoff, the ACC is scrambling for any inclusion. 7-5 Duke managed to sneak into Charlotte for the ACC Championship, but, even with a victory, its strength of record would not be sufficient to outrank two Group of Five challengers unless Troy unseats JMU in the Sun Belt title game. If Virginia stays the course, it would be guaranteed a slot, saving the ACC from a Playoff no-show.
Elsewhere, BYU will be hard-pressed to stop Texas Tech’s Big 12 siege. The Red Raider’s lone loss came in the absence of senior phenom Brennan Morton, responsible for the bulk of Tech’s offensive success, despite missing several games following a Week 6 fibula injury.
The Cougars’ only defeat was at the hands of the Red Raiders, a 29-7 drubbing that sealed Tech’s fate atop the conference. The beatdown has proved to be a huge blemish on BYU’s Playoff resume, which includes only one ranked win, against Utah. The game’s implications extend beyond the conference, though. If BYU lands their second shot, they will be guaranteed a CFP by virtue of their would-be conference championship status. Since Tech would retain an at-large bid in this scenario, another squad would be bumped from the field.
Notre Dame boasts a 10-game win streak, but could suffer from a lack of a conference title game if the bracket fills up. Miami, who will not compete for the ACC title, could also be excluded under a specific confluence of events. The Hurricanes will be pulling for Virginia and Texas Tech to clean up the chaos on the bubble.
In the American Conference, Tulane is looking to sidestep an upset against North Texas. Either way, the winner of that game will likely rank among the five best conference champions and lock down an appearance. If JMU defeats Troy in the Sun Belt Championship, they can make the field with victories by Duke and Texas Tech, which would knock out Virginia and BYU, respectively. If JMU loses under those same circumstances, though, Duke could notch an unprecedented bid as a five-loss conference champion.