Pac-12 Championship against Utah, in what would have been its ticket to the College Football Playoff. Fast forward to Saturday: the Trojans have never had a chance this good to solidify itself as a playoff team since that game in Las Vegas all those years ago.
No. 16 USC is set for a heavyweight bout with No. 6 Oregon, a matchup shaping up to not only be the game of the week but arguably the game of Lincoln Riley’s tenure at USC.. Win, and the path to the playoff is even more clear. Lose, and the Trojans’ shot at the CFP is likely kaput.
It’s been just over 14 years since USC last won in Eugene, Oregon where Lane Kiffin and his chic all-white tracksuit upset the No. 4 Ducks. Now for the first time since 2009, this matchup will be a top 15 showdown — coincidentally, also the last time the Ducks hosted ESPN’s College Game Day vs USC.
Last Saturday, Riley earned arguably the biggest win in his time at USC, a 26-21 win over Iowa after overcoming a 21-7 second quarter deficit.
It’s not just the Trojans who need a win to secure their spot in the CFP, the Ducks don’t have a true signature win yet. A loss on their end could possibly end their hopes for redemption in the playoff.
Oregon is led by redshirt sophomore quarterback Dante Moore, a player who many analysts have projected to go top ten in this year’s NFL Draft. The former UCLA Bruin has thrown for 2,190 yards, 21 touchdowns as well as five interceptions. Moore’s best game arguably was last week against Minnesota, with 306 yards and two touchdowns on near-perfect passing, 27-for-30.
That being said, Moore has struggled against more mighty opponents in Big Ten play. Against Iowa, Moore was unable to throw the ball through thick rain and heavy winds but on the Ducks’ final drive to win the game, he turned it on, getting Oregon down the field for a game-winning field goal. Against Indiana, Moore was sacked six times, throwing two interceptions to go along with it.
Oregon’s receiving corps has been banged up the last few weeks, and head coach Dan Lanning is keeping his cards close to his chest, as freshman Dakorien Moore and redshirt senior Gary Bryant Jr. have both missed time in the last two games. If they are unable to suit up, it may be a whole different game for the Oregon offense.
Even without them, the Ducks still have junior tight end Kenyon Sadiq, an ultra-freak athlete who could be the first tight end off the board in the 2026 NFL Draft. Sadiq had 96 yards and a touchdown against Minnesota, and his athleticism gives eerily similar vibes to that of Tyler Warren …the man who Trojan fans remember went off against USC last year for Penn State.
Defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn has been able to make the right adjustments the last three games, allowing a total of six points across the last three second halves. The key to the game for the Trojans will be the defensive line. While it will be difficult, the USC defensive line will have to get to Moore to give the Trojan secondary a chance against Oregon’s dangerous receiving corps.
USC may be without two of its starting safeties as well, with junior Kamari Ramsey and redshirt senior Bishop Fitzgerald leaving the last game against Iowa and not returning. The two behind them, redshirt freshman Kennedy Urlacher and junior Christian Pierce, stepped up in a massive way against the Hawkeyes.
Offensively for USC, the Trojans cannot attempt to play bully ball. While the win against Iowa was impressive, USC was able to do so with a combination of running and passing the ball. The Trojans must get redshirt junior wide receivers Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane the ball. While Oregon’s No. 1-ranked pass defense may be daunting, the Ducks have played one truly good passing attack. Against Indiana, the Hoosiers’ top two receivers carved up a young Oregon secondary combining for 179 yards.
The Trojans must get the ball in their playmakers’ hands which may sound like a basic task, but as we have seen on the road with Lincoln Riley-led teams:all common sense occasionally goes out the window.
Let’s not also forget freshman running back King Miller, who through 10 games is averaging around seven yards a carry. Miller will need to get involved and Riley does understand the importance of establishing the run. Oregon has the No. 21 best rush defense in the nation allowing just over 100 yards a game, but King Miller proved he’s up for the task against better run defenses such as Michigan and Iowa.
Where USC can win this game is in the red zone. While it is a tall task to get down to the opponent’s 20-yard line, if the Trojans can do it, there may be no stopping them. USC ranks No. 9 in the country in redzone scoring offense with a 94% redzone score rate. Comparatively, the Ducks rank No. 13 in redzone defense, stopping opponents from scoring on only one occasion this season when in the redzone.
If USC wants to win this game, they will have to get down to the red zone where they can really gash the Ducks.
As I wrap this up on a personal level, this game means more to me than arguably any Trojan fan out there as I grew up in Portland, Oregon. My first memory as a college football fan was bawling my eyes out when Cam Newton and his Auburn Tigers beat the Ducks in the 2010 BCS National Championship. I lived and died by Oregon football for the first 18 years of my life. Yet here I am all these years later — a diehard fan of a team which on my college application pros and cons list I wrote “hate their athletics.”
As a senior at USC, I’ve had to witness my closest of friends go to back-to-back conference championships with Oregon while the Trojans stewed in mediocrity for the last two seasons.
However this year, this team feels different. But if USC goes down, I’ll be able to sleep comfortably knowing that Oregon still has less of every single major accolade than the Trojans and will never be a blue blood.
For the game that could make or break their season, USC takes on Oregon Saturday, 12:30 p.m. at Autzen Stadium.