It’s homecoming weekend, and No. 17 USC is back where it belongs in the Coliseum for a 12:30 p.m. kickoff on Saturday against Iowa.
The 7-2 (5-1 Big Ten) Trojans are coming off a Friday night win last week against Northwestern and still have a chance to make the program’s first-ever College Football Playoff appearance – they just have to win their remaining three games.
As for Iowa, a walk-off field goal loss against Oregon at home dissolved any hopes for a playoff appearance next month.
There’s more to fight for than a playoff spot, though, and USC can’t count Iowa out of Saturday’s game. The Hawkeyes’ three losses were all against ranked opponents by a combined 10 points.
USC is undefeated at home this season and, like most teams, is more comfortable within its own confines. Redshirt junior quarterback Jayden Maiva’s completion percentage is 20% higher at home than on the road.
Maiava also leads the nation in yards per completion (14.64) and has two dynamic playmakers in junior wide receivers Ja’Kobi Lane and Makai Lemon. The Trojans enter Saturday with a top-10 passing offense nationally.
But tread carefully.
Iowa’s pass defense isn’t the only thing threatening the Trojans’ ability to move the ball in the air, as the National Weather Service forecasts 1 to 2 inches of rain and 10 to 15 mph winds Saturday in downtown Los Angeles. Meteorologists warn it could be the most rain downtown has seen since 1985, according to the Los Angeles Times.
Southern California isn’t known for its rainy weather, but the Trojans have had their fair share of exposure to the elements. They pulled off wins at Purdue after a three-hour weather delay and in near-freezing temperatures at Nebraska, but lost to Notre Dame in the rain.
Head coach Lincoln Riley doesn’t expect rain to have too much of an impact on his team, though.
“The second half of the Notre Dame game was pretty significant to where it really started to affect even what we were calling,” Riley said in Friday’s media availability. “It’s got to get pretty bad to be that way. Unless it’s a complete downpour, we feel we can function very close to normal.”
Most days, USC’s top-10 passing offense would thrive in a matchup against Iowa’s inability to defend the air strike. The Hawkeyes rank 131st nationally in passing defense. But, as Riley said, if the weather is bad enough, the Trojans may have no choice but to keep the ball on the ground.
Fortunately for the Trojans, they can thrive there, too.
Even without its first and second-string running backs, USC has upheld its versatility on offense in recent games. Riley knew going into the season that his team would have a dynamic run attack, but it’s safe to say no one expected a walk-on redshirt freshman to lead the group mid-way through the season.
“I’m pretty excited about the [running back] room,” Riley said on Trojans Live in August. “We’ve had some good rooms, as you referenced. I’ll put it this way. I’ll be disappointed if it’s not the best room that we’ve had since we’ve been at ‘SC.”
Riley alluded to Miller’s ability to employ big runs in practice, but after junior JUCO transfer Waymond Jordan and redshirt senior Eli Sanders were sidelined with injuries earlier this season, practice reps became reality for the walk-on.
Miller now leads the Trojans on the ground with 636 rushing yards, averaging 121 over the past four games. He is also second in the conference in yards per carry with 7.9.
Offense is only half the battle, though.
Iowa is more than comfortable keeping it on the ground. Hawkeyes graduate quarterback Mark Gronowski has just five passing touchdowns on the season but 12 rushing, the second-best of any player in the conference. Comparatively, Maiava has 17 through the air and leads his team with six on the ground.
While Iowa averages less than USC’s 200.2 rushing yards per game at 175.9, one of the Trojans’ greatest defensive struggles this season has been defending the run.
“We need to be consistent up front,” defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn said when asked what USC needs from its defense. “We need to stop the run. We need to limit big plays.”
Lynn also emphasized the importance of getting tackles for loss and not letting the Hawkeyes live in the third-and-short range.
“They’re okay with going first, second and third down all the way down the field,” Lynn said regarding Iowa’s offense. “It’s going to keep our offense off the field, and it’s going to wear us down.”
The Trojan defense is a young group, but it’s making improvements from last year’s transfer-portal-heavy roster. The group has already tallied 24 sacks this season, compared to 21 last year. In its last two games, the defense has allowed only a field goal in the second halves.
USC can’t let Iowa’s run game and an atmospheric river cloud its playoff sights. Vegas doesn’t think the rain will affect the game – odds haven’t budged since it opened Sunday at USC (-6.5) – but the Trojans have an opportunity to prove the program can play Big Ten football, rain or shine.