This season’s inaugural College Football Playoff rankings will be revealed next Tuesday. As per the sport’s typical volatility, the field won’t mirror that preview magazine you bought in August. Remember when Clemson was the National Championship favorite?
Yeah, me neither.
As we approach the regular season’s final stretch, here are two teams with the nation’s hottest stock, and two broken beyond repair.
Hot - Indiana (8-0):
Curt Cignetti’s 11.15 million dollar, 10-year contract extension is emblematic of Indiana’s budding success. The ascending Hoosiers are on track to score their second consecutive College Football Playoff appearance, boasting a spotless record and the Big Ten’s most prolific offense. Junior phenom Fernando Mendoza is both poised and explosive, chalking an impressive 24 touchdowns and maintaining 73% completion percentage through eight games.
“I think one of the keys is we just have everybody on the same page,” Cignetti noted after a 56-6 drubbing of UCLA last weekend.
The Hoosiers also lead the conference in sacks at 29.0 and in tackles for loss at 73.0. A double digit victory at Oregon two weeks ago all but guarantee a Big Ten title appearance, and, per ESPN’s FPI, they have at least a 77.1% chance to win each of their remaining four games. If the Hoosiers stay the course, they can notch their first back-to-back double digit win total in school history.
Cold - LSU (5-3)
Since its inception, Brian Kelly’s three and a half year tenure at LSU has been plagued by controversy. Faux southern accents aside, a series of suspect staff composition, including the outsting, and eventual retention, of world-class DB coach Cory Raymond, raised eyebrows from day one. An embarrassing laydown at the hands of Texas A&M was only the nail in the coffin of a disastrous run, as Kelly was fired less than 48 hours after.
LSU’s 4-0 start, including a season-opening win over then No. 4 Clemson, inspired brief optimism in the Bayou. However, a week five visit to Ole Miss exposed the Tiger’s vulnerable underbelly, marked by fundamental errors and egregious coaching flubs.
The Tigers’ 2/11 third down conversion rate proved costly last month in Oxford. Similarly, this Saturday, Brian Kelly’s group converted just 2 of 13 third down attempts in their home loss. Tack on a sluggish offensive showing against Vanderbilt, and the Tigers offer little to substantiate hope for improvement.
Garret Nusseimer, who was once a fierce contender in the Heisman race, plateaued miserably as the Tigers entered conference play. A respectable 71.8 QBR and less impressive 12-5 touchdown-interception ratio weren’t bad enough to preclude LSU from contention, but certainly not solid enough to make the Tigers competitive in an increasingly deep SEC. Now, running backs head coach Frank Wilson will take the helm before LSU’s visit to Alabama this Saturday.
Hot - Texas A&M (8-0):
Texas A&M has already matched their preseason predicted win total, challenging the “8-4” epithet that haunted the Jimbo Fisher era. Unlike Aggie teams of years past, Mike Elko’s group has the bandwidth for adversity of a bonafide contender. After trailing LSU at the break on Saturday, A&M outscored the Tigers 35-7 in the game’s latter half, totaling 426 yards en route to a 49-25 beatdown.
Following the victory, Elko commended strength and conditioning coach Tommy Moffett, often credited for A&M’s newfound fortitude in the trenches. The Aggies are also explosive on the edge. Defensive end Cashius Howell leads the SEC in sacks and A&M’s unit sits atop the league’s sack totals.
The Aggies offense, led by dual-threat sophomore quarterback Marcel Reed, are docking nearly 40 points per outing. Reed possesses potent versatility, as evidenced by his 23 total touchdowns —17 through the air, and six on the ground.
Missouri and Texas remain on the docket, posing legitimate threats to Texas A&M’s undefeated bid, but The Aggies’ physicality and loaded skill positions should inspire confidence in the 12th man during their final stretch.
Cold - Penn State (3-4):
Just four weeks ago, then-No. 3 Penn State led No. 6 Oregon 24-17 in overtime. For a moment, ESPN’s win probability metric gave Penn State a 76.9% chance to complete the upset. Instead, they imploded. Dillon Thieneman’s game-winning, 19-yard interception of Drew Allar killed the Nittany Lions’ upset bid, staving off what would have been head coach James Franklin’s first top ten regular season win since 2016.
This loss amplified a reputation that’s followed Franklin for nearly a decade: an inability to follow-through in pivotal moments. Reeling from the Oregon loss, Penn State handed a winless UCLA team their first win of the season. They then went on to drop consecutive games, where, in each, they failed to break 140 passing yards and notched just 43 combined first downs.
Penn State’s subpar offensive performance raised concerns, but a clear lack of effort seemed indicative of a larger culture issue. On October 12, Franklin was relieved of his duties as head coach. He ended his stint in Happy Valley with an unimpressive 4-21 record against AP Top Ten teams, including a staggering 1-10 mark against Ohio State. Their hardship is far from over, though. The NIttany Lions now face back-to-back games against No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana, respectively, led by interim head coach Terry Smith.