A confluence of NIL opportunities and conference realignment has produced unprecedented parity in college football. Usual suspects, such as Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia remain in contention, but are circled by new blood. Namely, Texas A&M, Georgia Tech and Ole Miss are making plays for their College Football Playoff debuts.
Alongside the top of the field, though, a few Power Four squads have quietly kept themselves in the running for a postseason bid. Here are three College Football Playoff dark horses to keep your eye on as the season comes to a close and a prediction for this upcoming Saturday.
Virginia
The Cavaliers were nothing short of spectacular offensively through their first five games, averaging 540 yards en route to a 4-1 start. Since their last-second stunner against Florida State, though, the Hoos have stalled. Both Washington State and Louisville outgained Virginia, each holding Senior quarterback Chandler Morris to under 200 yards. In both outings, the Cavaliers narrowly evaded defeat, but Kam Robinson and Hunter Osborne’s assisted end zone safety and running back J’Mari Taylor’s overtime touchdown saved the day in their respective games.
Albeit scary, these back-to-back thrillers have served testament to Virginia’s poise and follow-through ability. Now, they get what should be a pick-me-up against a downtrodden North Carolina this Saturday. In an ACC ripe for the taking, the Cavaliers have every opportunity to capitalize on a schedule where they should be favored the rest of the way.
Prediction: Virginia 41, North Carolina 20
BYU
BYU has tacitly slid up the AP Poll in recent weeks, climbing to No. 11 in the most recent iteration. Last week’s Holy War victory over Utah was their first ranked win of the season, kicking off the more demanding half of their schedule. Despite allowing 470 yards next to their 368, the Cougars did what they do best: capitalize on opponents mistakes. BYU has forced turnovers by every opponent this year, boasting the nation’s fourteenth best turnover margin, averaging .86 per game.
This weekend, they will travel to Aimes, Iowa, to take on Iowa State. The Cyclones are depleted by injury, especially on defense, which should make things easy for a BYU squad second in the Big 12 in rushing yards. Expect pressure on Junior quarterback Rocco Becht, whose two interceptions sealed the Cyclones’ fate at Colorado last weekend. Despite BYU’s undefeated mark, Texas Tech remains the favorite to win the Big 12 and earn an automatic College Football Playoff berth. A Nov. 8 trip to Lubbock, Texas, will be the Cougars’ chance to vindicate themselves as serious Playoff contenders.
Prediction: BYU 41, Iowa State 28
Mizzou
Mizzou’s Playoff hopes likely hinge on their afternoon showdown with Vanderbilt this weekend. The Tigers may be Eli Drinkwitz’s most complete group, allowing 16.7 points per game while posting an average just south of 40. A trip to Auburn this past weekend saw the emergence of freshman wide receiver Donovan Olugbode, who secured five catches for 69 yards in the double-overtime victory. Despite a relative defensive soundness, fundamental offensive errors have plagued the Tigers, proving costly in their sole loss against Alabama. Beau Pribula’s two interceptions at Auburn on Saturday raised his total to seven on the year.
Saturday’s game will be won on the line, which bodes well for the Tigers, whose offensive group matches up well with Vanderbilt’s front-seven. Also, keeping the ball away from Diego Pavia should be incentive enough to win in the trenches. Vanderbilt has a knack for dictating tempo, so extending drives will be crucial if Mizzou wants to avoid falling victim to the Vandy time trap.
If the Tigers can steal a win in Nashville, they will still have to reckon with undefeated Texas A&M and pay a visit to a peeved Oklahoma en route to what would be just their fourth 11-win regular season in program history.
Prediction: Mizzou 24, Vanderbilt 20