The beginning of the Playoff era undoubtedly belonged to the SEC, home to six of the ten College Football Playoff national champions. The last two years, though, have yielded new beginnings. Ohio State and Michigan’s back-to-back titles refreshed a downtrodden Big Ten, bringing titles north of the Mason-Dixon for the first time since 2014. The Big Ten and SEC have come to own the CFP, docking every title since Clemson’s undefeated bid in 2018.
Conference realignment has only fortified the stronghold these two “superconferences” have on the sport. In this week’s AP Poll, 12 of the top 15 teams belong to one of the two leagues.
Despite their capital on the postseason, all hope isn’t lost for the rest of the Power Four, who each offer serious contenders to unseat the hierarchy. Today, I’ll examine each conference with a viable Playoff candidate and assess their likelihood to hoist the trophy come January.
Big 10:
Penn State’s perplexing implosion at UCLA this weekend narrowed the Big Ten’s increasingly thin slate of title candidates. Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State stand well above their peers, each boasting a flawless record and a signature victory.
Having star wide receiver Jeremiah Smith on one side of the ball and safety Caleb Downs on the other put Ohio State’s repeat dreams well within reach, permitting they can shake the rivalry week yips that have plagued the Ryan Day era.
Equally complete, Oregon faces only one ranked opponent, Indiana, before a potential Big Ten title game appearance. Indiana’s defense has been superb, allowing just 9.6 points per game and, most impressively, holding Illinois to 161 yards in their marquee performance. The Hoosiers’ trip to Eugene this weekend will identify Ohio State’s primary challenger as the Big Ten Championship game draws nearer.
SEC:
Nine SEC teams remain in realistic Playoff contention through five weeks: undefeated dark horses Texas A&M, Missouri and Ole Miss lead a wayward field, but are closely trailed by a handicapped Oklahoma, a recharged Alabama, and a reeling Georgia, among others.
Assuming John Mateer recovers in due time, I would offer the Sooners as the conference’s best stab at the title. Bret Venables’ defense ranks first in the SEC for points allowed, and has yet to allow more than 17 points in a single outing.
A deep SEC doesn’t necessarily lend itself to a championship win, though. Last year, the league cannibalized itself, leaving no teams unscathed after the regular season. With no clear frontrunner, a lack of parity may see a few Playoff-caliber squads excluded from the bracket.
Big 12:
While a Big 12 team taking home a title for the first time since 2005 may seem unlikely, Texas Tech is certainly the league’s best shot. The Red Raiders lead the Big 12 in offensive production, averaging nearly 600 yards per game. Quarterback Behren Morton is a national standout, etching 12 touchdowns and upwards of 1,400 yards in Tech’s 5-0 start.
Arizona State has recovered well from an early season flub at Mississippi State, but quarterback Sam Leavitt’s uninspiring 63.6 QBR presents a roadblock in the Sun Devils play for a second consecutive Playoff berth.
Ostensibly, BYU or Cincinnati could snag the Big 12 crown and make a Cinderella Playoff run, but a national title feels lofty for two groups whose blue-chip ratios all but preclude them from competing with the SEC and Big Ten’s elite.
ACC:
As of today, ESPN’s FPI gives Miami at least a 73.6% chance to win each of its seven remaining games. As preseason favorite Clemson faces a mid-season collapse, it feels as though the Canes already have a foot in the Playoff’s door. Corey Hetherman’s rehabilitated defense has only conceded seven total touchdowns in five games alongside a refreshed Carson Beck, who boasts the conference’s highest QBR.
Miami’s only foreseeable challenger lies northeast, in undefeated Georgia Tech. Riding the high of two consecutive winning seasons for the first time since 2013-2014, the Yellow Jackets look invincible with Texas A&M transfer Haynes King behind center. They will likely be favored every Saturday until they host Georgia on November 28. A win over the Dawgs could catalyze a miraculous Playoff push in Brent Key’s third full year.