In just over ten weeks, the Heisman Trophy will be presented to the nation’s best college football player. As parity in the sport increases, so has competition for its highest individual honor.
Decided by nearly 1,000 voters across the country, five weeks of play isn’t enough to crown a winner. But, here are the five players who I think are mostly likely to take home college football’s most prestigious accolade.
The Favorite: Freshman Dante Moore |QB| Oregon
Dante Moore all but sealed his spot atop the Heisman race as he maneuvered to complete a 25-yard touchdown pass to Gary Bryant in overtime at Penn State this Saturday. Moore spearheaded Oregon’s victory in Happy Valley, spotting just under 250 yards and three touchdowns in a nearly spotless outing.
The freshman has demonstrated unparalleled poise in all four starts, but waltzing into one of the sport’s most harrowing environments and outwitting Penn State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles is perhaps the greatest testament to his grace behind center thus far. If Moore continues to complete passes at a 75% clip and avoid costly mistakes, a trip to New York seems almost inevitable for the first year starter.
The Wild Card: Junior Fernando Mendoza |QB| Indiana
Fernando Mendoza contributed five touchdowns through the air in Indiana’s 63-10 drubbing of then No. 8 Illinois, catapulting the junior from relative obscurity to national prominence.
With just 122 pass attempts on the year, Mendoza has managed 1,208 yards and 16 touchdowns, both of which place him top five nationally. His unique accuracy and calm pocket presence elevate an otherwise mediocre Indiana squad on par with the Big Ten’s main players, but trips to Oregon and Penn State will be crucial in fleshing out his potential as a candidate.
By virtue of Indiana’s late-season gauntlet, his path is more difficult than most, but an upset bid or two could certainly be enough to see Mendoza hoist the trophy in December.
The Comeback: Junior Ty Simpson |QB| Alabama
Ty Simpson was discarded by college football fans and media alike after Alabama’s Week 1 implosion at Florida State. Though, an impressive trip to Athens this weekend helped breathe life into his Heisman campaign.
Simpson accounted for nearly 300 total yards, including two passing touchdowns and one rushing in the Tide’s upset victory. It’s worth noting that, despite not cracking the top 50 nationally in total yardage production, he touts a flawless 11-0 touchdown-interception ratio. Consistency will be key if Simpson wants to make a competitive push for the award in the season’s latter half.
The Team: Graduate Carson Beck |QB| Miami
With a 73.2% completion percentage that ranks 13th in the ACC, Carson Beck is emblematic of the age-old trope of the Heisman as a “team award.”
Despite decidedly middle of the road numbers through four games, it’s impossible to deny the media attention on Beck as the leader of the ACC’s only remaining undefeated group. As the award is ultimately voted by regional media representatives, an undefeated ACC Championship run by the Canes in confluence with a shortage of star power elsewhere could push Beck to the top of the field after conference championship week. Even though Vegas has him tied for third most likely to take home the trophy, the Georgia transfer will need to mightily improve upon his eight touchdowns and three touchdowns by to seriously contend.
The Sleeper: Graduate Diego Pavia |QB| Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt has quietly notched a 5-0 start for the first time since 2008, widely accredited to senior phenom Diego Paiva. Paiva boasts a QBR of 88.4, the highest in the SEC and third-highest in the country. With 1,211 passing yards and 13 touchdowns on the year, he contends statistically with national favorites.
His middling performance in Vanderbilt’s only ranked win at South Carolina, has excluded him from the larger Heisman conversation, but opportunity presents itself as the Commodores look to knock off Alabama for the second consecutive year this Saturday.
If lightning strikes twice for head coach Clark Lea’s squad, Pavia may finally nab the Heisman moment to accompany his impressive statline.
High-profile, late season matchups should narrow the field as the Playoff picture becomes clear. College football is notoriously unpredictable, so expect the unexpected as we rapidly approach the season’s midpoint.