With twelve weeks until the College Football Playoff kicks off, contenders have begun to emerge as teams enter the meat of their conference schedules. While it may seem preemptive in a sport known for its volatility, here are my way-too-early Playoff predictions.
Bold indicates conference champions, who will receive an automatic bid. First round byes will be awarded to the top four teams, regardless of conference championship status.
1. Georgia Bulldogs
This Saturday saw junior quarterback Gunner Stockton finally come into his own, as Georgia’s offense posted 502 yards in a three point victory over the Tennessee Volunteers.
The shootout raised questions about the Dawgs’ defense, but an impressive offensive outing in tandem with Smart’s world-class defensive staff is enough to substantiate that they can run the table and win a wide-open SEC. If they do, there’s no reason Smart’s squad wouldn’t be at the top of the Playoff field.
2. Oregon Ducks
Oregon has outscored opponents 203-37 in four games this year, much of which can be attributed to first-year quarterback Dante Moore. With a supernatural arm talent and nearly 1,000 passing yards to show for it, Moore gives the Ducks’s offense an explosive edge they haven’t been afforded in the Dan Lanning era thus far.
A trip to Penn State this weekend will be their first real test, but, right now, they’re well on-pace for a second consecutive Big Ten title.
3. Miami Hurricanes
You could reasonably contend that Miami has the best resume in the country. Despite a gauntlet of sorts to start the year, they have a uniquely clear shot at a Playoff bid.
Refreshed transfer quarterback Carson Beck enjoys the benefit of a top ten offensive line and an ACC that offers little competition. If the Canes can survive next week’s road trip to Tallahassee, they should waltz through a schedule of middling conference foes before the title game in Charlotte.
4. Texas Longhorns
Texas has the opportunity to shake early-season shortcomings next Saturday when they take on the Oklahoma Sooners in the Red River Rivalry. Since the Sooners are missing their leader in John Mateer, the Longhorns can capitalize on quarterback Arch Manning’s budding momentum and correct paths on a season that started off awry. With Ryan Wingo hitting his stride against Sam Houston, accounting for 93 yards and 2 touchdowns, Manning has a target to lean on as SEC play starts to heat up. In the 12-team Playoff era, an early season loss can feel obsolete in the blink of an eye. Don’t count out Texas quite yet.
5. Ohio State Buckeyes
Quarterback Julian Sayin has been markedly consistent in his three starts at Ohio State. Despite concerns about offensive line turnover, the Buckeyes have managed just fine, touting a flawless record and the sport’s highest quality win— Texas
Ryan Day boasts a staggering 45-3 record in Big Ten games, so there’s no reason to believe that the Buckeyes would struggle with the remainder of their conference slate, but a home date against Penn State and a road trip to Ann Arbor loom large for a team who still hasn’t beaten Michigan this decade.
6. Penn State Nittany Lions
The hallmark of the James Franklin era at Penn State has been an inability to follow through when the lights get bright.
If the Nittany Lions want to avoid fizzling out again, they’ll have to steal a road win in Columbus, and knock off an ascending Indiana. Senior quarterback Drew Allar is decidedly precise, but may lack the punch to go toe-to-toe with the league’s top gun-slingers.
7. Florida State Seminoles
FSU looks to continue their meteoric rise as they begin conference play this Saturday at Virginia.
The Noles have one of the ACC’s best receiving cores, and a defense that has allowed just 20 points in three games. Miami, the sole ranked team left on their docket, poses the only foreseeable obstacle to Mike Norvell’s crack at a complete turnaround and eventual Playoff invitation.
8. Iowa State
The Big 12 has as little parity as is possible in a Power 4 conference. Quarterback Rocco Becht, the third year starter and former Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, differentiates Iowa State from their conference counterparts. With a shot at nearly every team in the league, experience — both behind center and the headset — favors the Cyclones.
9. Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee’s heartbreaking 44-41 loss to Georgia this Saturday is by no means the end of the road for the Volunteers. Quarterback Joey Aguilar showed signs of greatness, dropping 371 yards and four touchdowns in Saturday’s losing effort. A relatively manageable schedule should inspire confidence in Josh Hupel’s squad, who is certainly still in the SEC title mix.
10. Indiana
This weekend, you may have had to google Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza.
The Cal transfer, who flew entirely under the radar coming into the season, led the charge in Indiana’s 63-10 drubbing of 9th ranked Illinois. The Hoosiers were the biggest gainers in this week’s AP poll, as head coach Kirk Cignetti vies for another Cinderella run along a now-Heisman favorite QB in the backfield.
11. Oklahoma
Quarterback John Mateer’s hand injury and subsequent surgery announcement have put a glaring wedge in Oklahoma’s otherwise near-flawless start to the season. Mateer should return within a month, but his time missed could prove costly, as Oklahoma faces perhaps the nation’s most difficult backend schedule.
12. South Florida Bulls
While South Florida’s push for an undefeated season was stomped out by Miami on Saturday, they remain the only Group of Five team with two Power Four wins this season. Since the fifth highest ranked conference champion guarantees a Playoff slot, the Bulls just have to stay the course on an almost laughably easy schedule to secure their bid.