Measles resurgence: Is the U.S. prepared?

After measles was declared “eliminated” by the World Health Organization in 2000, Americans began to consider the disease a relic of the past, an affliction gone the way of smallpox and polio that only popped up in tiny spurts. But 25 years later, measles is back, and doctors, like Saahir Khan, an infectious disease specialist with Keck Medicine of USC, are worried.

“It’s very concerning. This is one of the most contagious infectious diseases that we know of,” Khan said.

The U.S. is in the midst of a measles outbreak with more than 800 confirmed cases across 25 states. In Texas, where the majority of cases have been reported, 62 people have been hospitalized, and two school-age children have died.

Here in California, there were 11 confirmed cases as of last week. While there have been no confirmed cases in L.A., the disease is continuing to spread quickly. One infected individual can potentially infect 18 others.

Why the sudden surge? Khan says people have stopped getting vaccinated. Eliminating the spread of measles requires 95% of the population to be vaccinated, but national vaccine rates have fallen to around 90%.

“Our vaccination rates in many communities around the country have dropped below the level of what we would consider herd immunity. So from time to time, there are sporadic cases associated with travel, but if you have a herd immunity rate that’s sufficient, then the sporadic cases don’t turn into an outbreak. But if you have a community where there’s not a sufficient vaccination rate to achieve herd immunity, then sporadic cases can lead to an outbreak,” Khan said.

As parents opt not to vaccinate their children, who are most commonly affected by measles, the disease continues to spread. This year, 96% of measles cases were in people who were unvaccinated or had an unknown vaccination status.

Khan says the falling vaccine rates are due to misinformation spread on social media, which could also bleed into public policy.

This month, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. endorsed the measles vaccine as the “most effective way to prevent the spread of measles” after making several controversial statements about the vaccine, including claiming it was not safety tested.

“We’ve lost our collective memory of many of these diseases. Because obviously many children were dying of measles back in the 1940s and 1950s, but now those older generation who remember that are sort of dying off,” Khan said.

According to Khan, there are only two real ways to protect yourself from the disease: vaccination and reducing exposure to those with measles.

“In the long run, people will come to a realization of how deadly some of these infections can be and the importance of vaccination, but unfortunately, it may require there to be some negative consequences ... I would like to think that we can educate people without there having to be outbreaks, but I’m not optimistic in the direction that our national discourse has gone,” Khan said.

Ending the ongoing outbreak will require people to either start vaccinating or a large enough portion of the population to get measles to develop immunity. In the meantime, measles cases and their consequences will continue to climb.