The NCAA tournament has come and is now nearly gone, with the Final Four this upcoming Saturday. While I have thoroughly enjoyed the tournament, many have complained that this March Madness has been lacking the promised madness.
For the first time since 2017, none of the top-four seeds lost in the first round, with only five double-digit seeds advancing to the second round. Even then, only one of those double-digit seeds made the Sweet Sixteen. That singular double-digit seed, of course, was Arkansas. The Razorbacks have one of the greatest coaches of all time, were a preseason top-25 team, and have a seemingly unlimited NIL trust, funded by chicken nuggets. Not exactly the Cinderella we were all hoping for…
Regardless of the unsurprising Cinderella, the games haven’t been the most exciting either. Aside from Colorado State versus Maryland, BYU versus Wisconsin and Florida versus UConn, we really didn’t see much action from the first weekend of the tournament.
But once we got past the Sweet 16, we fans were promised nothing but good basketball. With eight of the top-nine teams in the Kenpom adjusted efficiency rankings left to play, this was gearing up for one of the best Elite Eight’s of all time.
The first game gave us that excitement, with Florida making a miraculous comeback against Texas Tech, but the next three games were disappointing to say the least.
Duke put Alabama through the ringer, beating the Crimson Tide 85-65. The next day, Houston gave Tennessee a beating, holding the Volunteers to just 14 first-half points, winning 69-50. The final game was better, but still not great, as Auburn beat Michigan State 70-64, but anyone who watched the game would know that the Tigers were up anywhere between seven and 12 the entire second half.
So, after the weekend, we ended with our Final Four and for the first time since 2008, all four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four.
But why is this?
Why was everything so chalk? Why were there no upsets?
There are a multitude of things you can attribute to this top-side dominance. The first, and most glaring, reason is NIL and the transfer portal.
Without restrictions, NIL has made college basketball incredibly lopsided, with smaller teams finding players who are overlooked, developing that player for a year where they show out, then the big teams swoop in and buy away the player.
Take San Diego State’s redshirt freshman forward Magoon Gwath, a zero-star recruit who showed out this past season, winning Mountain West Freshman of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year.
Gwath is now in the portal and has been linked to large programs like Michigan and Kentucky. Smaller programs that take chances on kids like Gwath, develop them and coach them up then instantly lose their hard work to the big programs is what is wrong with college basketball.
The problem is, it is all about money and opportunity. For Gwath specifically, you can’t even blame the guy, as On3 Sports puts his NIL valuation at $1.7 million. For a 20-year-old whose dad is an Uber driver and mom a janitor, that is money you simply cannot refuse.
So what do you do?
You don’t want to take away money from kids who deserve it, but you also don’t want to turn college athletics into a limitlessly capped sport. I do have a solution which I’ll share another time…
Regardless, it hurts these small programs that cannot truly develop players without a big program wanting to steal them away, so that is one reason we didn’t see any crazy upsets this year. No true complete mid-major teams have a star… the other is likely a direct correlation of the transfer portal.
The best teams are really, really, really good.
The four teams left rank as statistically four of the best teams of all time, according to KenPom adjusted efficiency rankings. According to those rankings, Duke is the second-best team of all time, while Houston is sixth, Florida is eighth and Auburn is 10th.
While a lot of that is due to the NIL and transfer portal, some of it is because these teams are just really good.
Both the majority of Houston and Duke’s important players began where they are right now. Duke has a lot of freshmen and developed players, while Houston has multiple players with long Cougar tenures.
Florida and Auburn are different, with many of their top players coming from the portal.
Regardless, these teams have been phenomenal all year, and it is not surprising they are the last four remaining.
Florida has beat seven teams currently ranked in the top 25 in the month of March alone, Houston has lost one game since November, Auburn struggled at the end of the year but still has nine top-25 wins and Duke has rolled through the NCAA tournament and is beating its opponents by an average of 23 points per game.
The No. 1 seeds are just flat out dominant, so should we be that surprised that all four are our finalists?
People keep saying it all tournament, but we are truly about to witness one of, if not the greatest, Final Fours of all time.
Duke versus Houston is the No. 1 offense against the No. 1 defense, while Florida versus Auburn is a battle of SEC greats. The Gators had the Tigers’ number during the regular season, but Auburn has been red hot in the tournament.
So to all who say that this tournament has been boring, I don’t think you actually like basketball. If you can’t enjoy simultaneous games of basketball all at once without a buzzer beater, then this just isn’t for you. Go watch the NBA, then complain that’s boring as well *cough cough all NBA media.*
Personally, I’ve had a phenomenal time, my brackets are rolling and I stormed back in my bracket group, going from 54th to 14th in the last week, with a chance to finish second.
Yes, I understand March Madness is more fun with upsets, and I completely agree! But, statistically, we are about to witness some of the highest-level basketball the tournament has ever seen in this Final Four, and while I can’t guarantee that there will be a buzzer-beater, some great basketball will be played.
In one week, I’ll be back to check on this prediction, and if I’m wrong, then dang. But even if we don’t have the most incredible games, I’ll still enjoy it! Because I like basketball! Which is what this whole thing is about.
Even if the Final Four and National Title match are amazing, I’ll still give you all my solution on how to fix college athletics, because it does indeed need a change.