USC is missing a huge component of its team in star sophomore guard JuJu Watkins following the ACL tear she suffered against Mississippi State in the second round. What does the team look like without her, and how will it match up against No. 5-seeded Kansas State?
USC’s strength
USC’s greatest strength is its defense. Watkins is a Defensive National Player of the Year candidate and was a huge part of the Trojans’ success on defense, but her team proved against Mississippi State that it can still lock down opponents without her. USC’s defense thrives on creating turnovers and making quick stops, ranking second among all Division I teams with seven blocks and 11.2 steals per game. The Trojans will need that defensive intensity to stop Kansas State’s lethal shooting. USC’s success on defense goes beyond its starters, too – sophomore guard Malia Samuels and senior center Clarice Akunwafo have been critical off the bench in big games.
USC’s weakness
USC’s ability to shoot threes hasn’t been great all season. While the Trojans did have success from the perimeter against Mississippi State, that was an unusually strong performance. If USC is lacking on defense, it will need more efficient shooting to get the job done. The Trojans’ best 3-point shooter is freshman guard Avery Howell, who comes off the bench and averages 39.3% from distance. It will be on her and another freshman, guard Kennedy Smith, to knock down crucial threes.
Kansas State’s strength
Kansas State is a team of shooters. The Wildcats’ biggest strength is USC’s weakness, knocking down threes. Their shooting is what propelled them to defeat No. 4-seeded Kentucky in the second round, where they averaged 40% from the 3-point line. That mark was not far off from their season average of 38.8%, second overall out of all Division 1. Kansas State has three players who average over 40% from the three: sophomore guard Taryn Sides, senior guard Jaelyn Glenn and senior forward Temira Poindexter. The team’s shooting prowess is accompanied by its ball movement, ranking second in assists nationally. The Wildcats are driven by senior guard Serena Sundell, who had 14 assists in their last game.
Kansas State’s weakness
Kansas State needs to watch out for foul trouble, especially from graduate center Ayoka Lee. Against Kentucky, she had four fouls going into the fourth quarter, which limited her aggressiveness through the end of regulation and overtime. Before the tournament, Lee hadn’t played at full health since January 19. While she was out, her team only picked up one ranked win out of five opportunities. It’s safe to say that she makes a major impact, so without her on the court playing freely, Kansas State could be in trouble.
USC’s stars
Graduate forward Kiki Iriafen will be the go-to scorer after Watkins’ injury. She’s already an all-around threat though, averaging 18.6 points, 8.5 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game. She proved that she can have a serious impact as the No. 1 option against Mississippi State, tallying 26 points, 9 rebounds and 2 blocks. She’s especially good at hauling in offensive rebounds and finishing at the rim.
When speaking of how dominant USC’s defense is, you have to talk about senior center Rayah Marshall’s impact. She leads the team in blocks, averaging 2.2 per game. Marshall will need to continue her stout defense in the paint to prevent the Wildcats’ offense from getting hot.
Kansas State’s stars
Lee is everything a team could want at the five, averaging 15.6 points, 6.4 rebounds and two blocks per game. Despite missing more than two months this season, she returned to the court with a vengeance and is clearly motivated by a sense of having unfinished business. She’s a huge asset for the Wildcats both offensively and defensively.
Sundell is an assist machine, putting up 7.3 per outing, but can also get her own buckets with 13.9 points per game. There’s no doubt that she’s a clutch shooter, as she tied the game against Kentucky with eight seconds left on a fade-away jumper. But her ability to facilitate the offense and make perfect passes is what helps her stand out.
The X-Factor: Experience
Experience could be the game changer. The starting five for Kansas State consists of one graduate, three seniors and one sophomore. Additionally, its bench is made up of upperclassmen. USC’s starting five is going to have two graduates, a senior and two freshmen. When the Trojans go to their bench, there are more underclassmen. The Trojan core has some high-end experience in Iriafen, Marshall and graduate guard Talia von Oelhoffen, but is overwhelmingly young compared to the Wildcats. USC’s upperclassmen are going to have to maximize their leadership to help their mostly freshmen shooters stay confident.
Howell has proven that she’s ready to step up, as she shot 44.4% from 3-point range against Mississippi State. Smith will also play a bigger role on both sides of the ball. She had an effective outing in the last game with 10 points, five rebounds and five steals.
For Kansas State, Poindexter seems to be the X-factor on offense, as she averages 40.5% from beyond the arc and scored back-to-back threes in overtime to send the Wildcats to the Sweet Sixteen for the first time since 2002.
The Trojans are looking to make it to the Elite Eight for the second year in a row, while the Wildcats have a Cinderella run at stake. Tune in on Saturday at 5 p.m to see who will survive and advance.