Republicans are defending Florida’s 1st and 6th congressional seats on April 1 due to vacancies caused by nominations to President Donald Trump’s administration.
The congressional districts were left vacant after Trump nominated Michael Waltz to serve as National Security Advisor and Matt Gaetz as Attorney General (he later withdrew his name from consideration).
“Special elections happen for a variety of reasons but usually stems from a vacancy in a congressional seat that needs to be filled that cannot be an appointed position so the obligation is to fill the seat quickly and fairly and so that means: election time,” said Kamy Akhavan, managing director of the USC Center for the Political Future.
Both districts are considered “solid Republican” for the 2026 midterm elections by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Democrats have raised over $15.7 million for the two upcoming elections, in an effort to narrow the Republican’s majority in the House of Representatives which is currently 218-213, with four current vacancies.
Republicans are soliciting donations, positioning themselves as the underdog in these districts. They are asking for “immediate support to defend our majority.”
In an email March 17, Special Election War Chest said, “These seats are the key to maintaining our America First agenda, and Democrats are already mobilizing to take them from us.”
Republicans have already faced unexpected losses in local elections in Iowa and Pennsylvania.
On March 25, Democrat James Malone flipped the 36th State Senate District, winning in an area Trump carried by 15 points and that has not had Democratic representation since 1978.
In January during a state senate special election in Iowa, Democrats flipped the 35th district which Trump won by 21 points. The seat was left vacant after Republican Senator Chris Cournoyer was appointed to be Iowa Lieutenant Governor.
Democrat Mike Zimmer won that Iowa special election on January 28 winning 52% of the vote beating Republican Katie Whittington.
He credited his win to low voter turnout.
“You have to really take a special election with a little grain of salt, because it is so different,” Zimmer said in an interview with Annenberg Media.
9,304 votes were cast in the January special election, compared to over 23,850 when previous Republican Senator Chris Cournoyer was elected in 2022.
In 2022, Cournoyer won by 22 points while Trump won the area by 21 points in 2024.
“The name of the game on a special election is getting voter turnout and in this particular case, it was getting Democratic voter turnout and really focusing on those folks to come out in the cold and get to the polls and actually vote,” Zimmer said.
Akhavan said that voters care less about special elections and are not as informed as presidential elections or midterms where national issues are driving voters to the polls.
Similar to a primary, Akhavan said that the most motivated voters in special elections are also the most partisan.
“That means we’re talking about a disproportionately small percentage of the electorate in that region that’s showing up… and that’s why we end up with weird results in specials,” Akhavan said.
He added that there is an argument over whether special elections hold weight when predicting future trends.
“Some people will argue that special elections are a bellwether where the district is heading and it is a sign of a trend,” he said. “Other people think special elections don’t mean anything other than what they were thinking the day the special election took place and do not read further into the tea leaves because it is not predictive, and both are right.”