What does USC men’s basketball need to do to make March Madness? In the immortal words of Al Davis, “Just win, baby!”
With a 13-9 overall record, a 5-6 mark in Big Ten conference play and a NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) ranking of 67, USC has the potential to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team in its first season under head coach Eric Musselman.
The Trojans earned a major Quad 1 win against Michigan State on Saturday at Galen Center that put them as the fourth team out of March Madness on ESPN’s bracketology from Tuesday morning. The Trojans’ loss against Northwestern later that day will likely cause the Trojans to slip a little bit in Joe Lunardi’s next Bracket Watch, scheduled to come out on Friday, but the team remains in contention for an at-large bid.
If USC does not win the Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis in mid-March, the Trojans can only make March Madness as an at-large team, with 37 bids available. What will help USC’s resume is to get wins that are against the teams that are ranked highest in the NET rankings; the opponent ranking that defines what quadrant a game falls into depends on whether the game is at home, neutral or away.
Having Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins are a key part of what helps a team earn an at-large selection, but teams also want to avoid having Quad 3 and Quad 4 losses. USC’s Quad 1 record is 3-7, its record for both Quad 2 and Quad 3 games is 2-1, and it has won all six of its Quad 4 games.
While the selection committee will use the NET rankings and the quality of victories to help it determine the at-large teams and their seeding, Musselman stated that he does not agree with some of the metrics used to evaluate teams.
“I don’t even want to get into it,” USC’s head coach said after the team’s win against Michigan State on Saturday. “Like, you beat somebody in non-conference by 30 and that holds more weight than beating them by 10. It’s a joke how those numbers go.”
While Musselman ranted against the metrics, they still matter and will ultimately factor into USC’s postseason fate. The Trojans still have the opportunity to make the field of 68 as an at-large if they can take advantage of the key Quad 1 games left on the schedule, while also making sure to win the remaining Quad 2 and Quad 3 games as well.
As it stands, even with the loss to the Wildcats on Tuesday night, USC has five more opportunities to earn Quad 1 victories in its final nine games — Purdue, Maryland, Ohio State, Oregon and UCLA are all left on the schedule — and the Trojans would probably need to win three or four of those to give themselves a chance. As USC’s roster has gelled and played better as the season has progressed, the team has compiled all three of its Quad 1 wins in the past month. USC also has two opportunities to earn Quad 2 victories against Penn State and Rutgers. The remaining two games are Quad 3 opportunities — Minnesota and Washington both travel to Galen Ceter — and the Trojans do not have any more Quad 4 games left on the schedule.
If USC can finish the season on a solid run and put together strong wins in the final month of the season, the Trojans will set themselves up to be a contender for an at-large bid.