After losing four out of the prior five games, head coach Lincoln Riley pulled the plug — redshirt junior Miller Moss would no longer start as the Trojan quarterback, redshirt sophomore Jayden Maiava would. Two games into the Maiava experiment, USC is on a two-game winning streak. The last-ditch effort to salvage a chance at a bowl game has worked — the Trojans now have six wins. They’re in.
With only a game against No. 9 Notre Dame left in the regular season, it would be shocking to see anyone but Maiava at quarterback until the end of the year.
Should it be?
Has his play really warranted the coronation he received after the Nebraska game, or the continued praise he has gotten after a 19-13 win over bitter rivals UCLA?
Benching a quarterback is not something to analyze at the surface level, they can have yearslong consequences — rumors are already circling regarding where Moss may transfer. That makes it particularly worth considering: Has Maiava actually been an improvement?
Even many of his best plays tell a concerning story. To set up his first touchdown against Nebraska, Maiava rolled right, heaved a pass downfield to an awaiting sophomore wide receiver Duce Robinson, who snagged the ball over the outstretched arm of a Cornhusker defender.
It sounds beautiful.
It discounts that Robinson had to turn around and run back to the ball, which Nebraska senior defensive back Tommi Hill could easily have picked if he had correctly judged where it would come down. It discounts that it wasn’t the great, gutsy play many claimed, it was a prayer thrown up with a pick-six already on the board.
Surely his second touchdown pass of that game was better, right? Redshirt junior wide receiver Kyron Hudson made a terrific catch after the ball was tipped by junior defensive back Malcolm Hartzog Jr. into Hudson’s chest, back onto Hartzog Jr.’s helmet and into Hudson’s arms. It’s yet another time Hudson has made a potential catch of the year.
The highlight did not come from a great throw, though. Hudson was open, five yards clear of Hartzog. Maiava’s short throw meant the 5-foot-9 corner still had a chance at an interception. If Hartzog were 5-foot-10, the ball might’ve changed possession.
If even one of those plays goes the other way, which only would have taken slightly better defensive play from the Cornhuskers, the Nebraska game looks very different. Maiava’s pick-six, one of his first throws against the Cornhuskers, may be worse than any throw Moss made all season.
The UCLA game was concerning in different ways. Gone were the miraculous near-picks, replaced with 50/50 balls that were never caught and a complete lack of pocket presence. Maiava did not notch a single completion on fade or go routes — the bulk of the 50/50 balls schemed up — which stymied multiple drives. He walked directly into two sacks, also killing drives.
This isn’t to say it’s all been bad.
Against Nebraska, Maiava did run for two first downs Moss could never have converted, and the UNLV transfer scored a touchdown on a near-identical run that nearly led Moss to a concussion against Wisconsin. Against UCLA, he picked up first downs on two scrambles, keeping drives alive that may otherwise have died.
Redshirt senior running back Woody Marks had room to run, averaging 7.7 yards per carry against Nebraska as he became the first Trojan back with 1,000 rushing yards since Ronald Jones in 2017 — Maiava’s mobility undoubtedly helped create some of that room.
The ball explodes out of his hands in a way it just doesn’t from Moss’, enabling a 30-yard bomb to Makai Lemon against UCLA that Moss wouldn’t have a chance of completing and numerous remarkable throws on the run.
What this is to say is that it’s not enough.
The mobility that has undoubtedly helped the run game improve slightly has barely been used as more than a threat — there have only been two runs called for Maiava in two games. The jump in arm strength is nice and has kept closing windows open, but it hasn’t improved the offense. Many of the plays Maiava’s arm strength has been most vital have been late throws into closing windows — windows Moss delivered on-time passes to earlier in the season.
As a long-time Anthony Richardson proponent, I am completely willing to sacrifice efficiency for explosiveness. In an ideal world, that’s what moving to Maiava would have done — lost some of the down-to-down consistency of Moss’s offense, but added enough big plays that it wound up a better offense anyway. That’s not what’s happening. The explosives aren’t exploding and the rest of the pass game isn’t working either.
Under Moss, the Trojans were only held below 20 points by Minnesota — the No. 15 scoring defense in the country. Under Maiava, the Trojans scored 19 against the No. 80 defense. The Trojans had a quarterback who many, myself included, wanted to see in red-zone packages early in the season, but USC only mustered three field goals on three drives that made it inside the five against a UCLA team with the eighth-worst red-zone defense.
Maiava has been praised extensively for middling performances against the No. 66 and No. 111 pass defenses in the country. Yes, USC won those games, but did they really seem like games that Moss wouldn’t have won by more? With Moss, would games against UCLA and Nebraska have been the next Maryland and Washington-esque losses or would they have been Wisconsin and Rutgers-esque wins?
With how close the games were despite ramped up struggles on offense, I’d strongly suggest the latter. Maiava led scoring drives late, which Moss struggled to do. He shouldn’t have been in the position to need those scores, though, if he had consistently led a strong offense throughout the game.
Now, the quarterback who has led those narrow wins against rudderless teams faces the No. 1 pass defense in the country. It seems like a recipe for USC’s first multi-score loss of the season.
I’ve rooted for USC my whole life. It takes more effort than I care to admit to put on my impartial-media hat and to take off the USC hat I’ve worn every day since ninth or 10th grade, the hat I’ve worn to see every attendable home game since the 2018 homecoming game (a loss to Cal) — a streak which would extend longer if I hadn’t missed that year’s Arizona State game to take the ACT — the hat which has seen every home snap since Kedon Slovis scored an opening-drive touchdown against Oregon in 2019 before being ground into a pulp.
I want the Trojans to succeed. I want to watch through cardinal-and-gold-colored glasses. I want to revel in their victory and to not have to live in a world where they’ve barely managed bowl eligibility. When I wear my USC hat, I see the vision. I see Maiava driving downfield in cardinal and gold. I see thrilling circus catches and a thriving run game. I see a team that kept fighting when it mattered most and managed to win two one-score games.
It’s when I put my impartiality hat back on that I get concerned. I see touchdowns that would be interceptions if the defender played the ball correctly. I see multiple drives stalling out because Maiava couldn’t hit sophomore wide receiver Zachariah Branch on a zig route. I see tough catches that should be easy and a run game that, at the end of the day, really doesn’t look different to how it did under Moss. I see a team that may have blown yet another late lead against Nebraska if a blatant hold had been called and a defense which finally stopped a fourth-and-10 late to win a second game. I see a team killing its offense to keep hope alive.
You can’t run a team on hope — this is not a TV show and Lincoln Riley is not Jason Sudeikis. You can’t make personnel decisions based on fandom. When I look at this team without letting my personal history into the mix, I can’t help but be more concerned for its future than I was two weeks ago.