After a week’s hiatus I was forced to take due to the crippling downpour of midterms, College Football Catch-Up is back, and the race for the CFP became even more difficult to predict.
This week, two of the formerly top four teams were eliminated. No. 11 Georgia was kicked around by No. 10 Ole Miss, and No. 12 Miami’s luck finally ran out as they were unable to come back against Georgia Tech.
These two losses made the CFP even more contested — both are on the brink of elimination.
Miami could still backdoor its way into the playoff by winning the ACC, but are no longer in first with…*adjusts glasses* SMU taking sole possession of first place?!
Georgia, however, no longer controls its own destiny in the SEC championship race. The Bulldogs sit in fourth with Ole Miss and Alabama hot on their coattails, having played one less game than Georgia. Because of these two losses, there is still a large list of teams who could finish with two losses that we need to sort out.
I tried to make the list of teams with a clear path to the playoffs as short as possible. It’s 19 schools long.
Oregon, Ohio State, Texas, Penn State, Indiana, Tennessee, BYU, Notre Dame, Alabama, Ole Miss, Georgia, Miami, Boise State, Texas A&M, SMU, Army, Colorado, Washington State and Tulane all have a viable path to find themselves still playing in January.
What?!?!
If the four-team playoff format was still in play realistically you can cut off two-thirds of those teams as being already eliminated from contention.
That’s what makes the new format so incredible.
While 19 teams still have a viable path, some are more likely to make it than others.
Nearly guaranteed: Oregon, Indiana, Penn State and Ohio State
Call me a biased Big Ten fan, but these teams have a combined two losses, with Oregon and Indiana as the two of the last three undefeated teams in the country.
Oregon and Penn State can sleepwalk through the remainder of their schedule and be fine.
The Nittany Lions’ toughest opponent will be Minnesota, and will almost certainly end the year 11-1 with their only loss to Ohio State.
Oregon has shown to be one of, if not, the most complete team in college football, and also has a cakewalk of a schedule remaining, with the two UWs, Wisconsin and Washington remaining.
The Ducks will skip right into the Big Ten Championship.
Indiana and Ohio State are a bit trickier.
The two play each other in two weeks in Columbus, Ohio. The Buckeyes’ only loss is to Oregon, where they were one pass interference call from having a chance to win.
Indiana is 10-0 and has double-digit wins for the first time in program history, but they have played a bunch of pillows for a schedule.
Now it seems at worst Indiana will go 11-1 and that seemingly guarantees a spot. Ohio State with two quality losses to Oregon and Indiana also feels almost guaranteed, even though the two play each other.
Win and you’re in: Tennessee, Notre Dame, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas and Boise State
The SEC is a mess. It is really hard to make sorts of it. These teams have almost completed the circle of suck — they’ve nearly all beaten each other. Yet, they still all look like powerhouses.
The problem is, that there are only so many spots to give out.
Georgia and Tennessee play one another this week, so the Bulldogs may be eliminated after this week, but a Volunteer loss would make it even more difficult to rank these teams.
But we’ll get there when we get there.
Looking at the rest of the field, Texas, Alabama and Ole Miss have all shown their faults, but at some times they look incredible.
So can you really have that level of inconsistency with a national title contender?
Speaking of inconsistencies, let’s talk about the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
This team is so confusing.
For the most part, the Fighting Irish have looked dominant, most recently pummeling the decrepit Florida State Seminoles 52-3.
There is however that little snafu from week two where they lost at home to now 5-4 Northern Illinois…
Notre Dame has favored from a lighter schedule, but later this week will take on the No. 16 Army Black Knights at Yankee Stadium.
And let’s not forget about the powerhouse 4-5 USC Trojans at the end of the year!
Ok, maybe not USC.
But at this point, all Notre Dame has to do is win out, and they should have a home-field advantage game in the CFP, although that clearly isn’t always a factor…*cough cough, Northern Illinois*
Need a conference championship win: Miami, SMU, BYU, Colorado and Boise State.
The fact that two of these teams will get a first-round bye is absurd.
None of them are particularly that good, they just happen to play in horrific conferences.
There are of course three Heisman Hopefuls in Boise State’s junior running back Ashton Jeanty, Miami’s redshirt senior quarterback Cam Ward, and Colorado’s junior wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter, but overall the Buffaloes and Hurricanes are less than frightening teams.
BYU and Colorado it seems are destined to meet in the Big 12 championship, with both finding great form recently.
The two control their own destiny to the championship game, however neither has the resume to argue that they should be in the conversation with a loss.
Moving out of the mountains and to the Atlantic, SMU and Miami are in a relatively similar predicament.
SMU lost to BYU back in September, but since then has been rolling, winning seven straight in its first year in the ACC.
Miami is almost the opposite, they cooked up some fried Gator in week one when they beat the tar out of Florida, but since then has looked utterly mediocre.
The “Cardiac ‘Canes” have made multiple double-digit comebacks against subpar ACC teams, and we all had to pretend they were a top-four team in the country because they were undefeated. Finally, thank god, that caught up to them when Georgia Tech made sure there would be no comeback.
With both teams sitting at one loss with less-than-ideal strength of schedules, it feels likely that the winner of the ACC will get the bye, while the other is sent packing.
And then there’s Boise State.
The Broncos have the best player in the country. With Jeanty dominating on the ground, they have largely run through the Mountain West. All they have to do is win out and they are in, no question.
It would be a crime to deprive college football fans of seeing Ashton Jeanty in a playoff game.
Need a few things to drop their way: Washington State, Texas A&M, Army and Tulane
All these teams are just on the cusp of being contenders but have a few things still to prove.
Texas A&M is the most proven but got beaten up by South Carolina two weeks ago. Couple that with the loss to Notre Dame, they have a bit of ground to make up.
But they will get the chance to prove it in the final game of the year where they take on arch-rival Texas.
The rest of this category is all Group of Five teams hoping that Boise State drops a game.
In order if Boise State at any point falters, the next team up would be:
Army.
Tulane.
Washington State.
The Black Knights, as mentioned, will have the chance to move up later this week as they take on Notre Dame. The rest are more of question marks.
Tulane already has two losses to meager opponents but has been impressive at times, narrowly losing to Kansas State, and are currently undefeated in conference play.
The case for Washington State is much harder. They’re 8-1, but Boise State and Jeanty steamrolled them earlier this year.
These teams will be all eagerly waiting for the end of the year hoping for some teams to drop a game or two.
I’m not sure how there are only four weeks of regular college football left. While I’m sad it’s so close to over, it would be a crime not to be excited to see how it will all resolve itself.