Historically, the Texas majority has consistently voted red for every presidential election since 1980. Prior to Ronald Reagan’s election, Texas typically voted Democratic candidates into office.
San Antonian and USC psychology and legal studies junior Emi Kosterlitzky noted that this election is different because of the high stakes. “This election is really important for a number of different groups of people and individuals,” she said.
This year’s election contains various polarizing policies that have led to unrest and “volatile conversations” sparking throughout the country between friends, family and strangers alike, Kosterlitzky said.
Despite all the animosity and high tension in the country, 47 years-long San Antonio resident David Adelman has noticed no notable shift in the San Antonio environment as the decision time rapidly approaches. “It feels like a normal election,” he said. “You see a few signs here and there, but not many.”
In 2020, Texas emerged with the smallest margin of popular votes between Republicans and Democrats since the 1996 presidential election between Bill Clinton and Bob Dole, where Republicans led by 5%. The race for office between President Joe Biden and Former President Donald Trump saw Republicans leading by 6.5% over Democrats in Texas.
Both campaigns, noting the influence and far-reaching power of social media, have capitalized on Gen Z’s attention to the platforms, creating ads targeting young voters. Celebrities and powerful figures have also used the apps to their advantage, spreading endorsements. News outlets have created videos to reach younger audiences who might not tune into TV or print news.
Social media apps have given Gen Z a voice, allowing the demographic to participate in the election. Young advocates have used the platforms to reach peers and advocate for their chosen candidates, with some trends even arising from the content.
“Gen Z is all connected, so when we can all speak with each other, we start to realize what we should do, and we’re putting out the message to go vote,” said USC economics junior and San Francisco resident Demian Schatt.
He heard talk of Texas going blue through social media posts of Republicans coming out to support Harris and from videos posted by Texas residents supporting Harris. Schatt started looking into the posts, keeping in mind Texas’ conservative stereotype, and found truth in there being a large increase in the amount of Harris supporters.
“I always imagine Texas to be a deep red state,” he said. “They’ve always advertised themselves as being traditionally conservative, so I was surprised to see how much support for Kamala is coming out of the state.”
Ultimately, Schatt doesn’t see Texas flipping blue or turning into a battleground state in this election because the race appears to be so close at this point in the election, according to various experts and polls.
Born and raised in San Antonio, Kosterlitzky also heard the speculations but has her doubts. She recognizes the sheer amount of rural voters; however, Kosterlitzky also noted that she has seen people very passionate about Harris’ values.
“I think Trump doesn’t just have supporters… he has fans,” she said. “But, I do know that people are very passionate about voting for Kamala Harris to protect different freedoms.”
At this point, Kosterlitzky thinks the state of Texas could go either way but is certain that the major cities will vote blue.
With more counties than any U.S. state, about 22 of Texas’ 254 counties go blue, according to the average margin of victory between the 2016, 2018, 2020 and 2022 elections. Despite the state’s major cities voting blue, the rural counties far outnumber the urban areas, causing the state to remain red.
Urban cores in Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio are growing as the state sees an influx in residents, with the population increasing by four million at a rate of 15% in the last decade, more than any other state. According to the 2020 Census, about 90% of Texas residents live in urban areas.
The I-35 corridor, running through the state from north to south, is rapidly expanding with the addition of residents who tend to lean blue. They are moving in from other states like California and New York and tend to be in the middle to high income bracket. Texas has added an additional 1.7 million voters since 2020.
Despite the growing urban population, native Texan Jeff Wender doubts the possibility of a blue Texas, considering that Texas hasn’t seen a Democratic candidate represented in the Senate or government in decades. “I don’t think that there’s been enough people moving from other parts of the nation to Texas to offset what’s historically been a very large Republican base,” he said
The major counties are seeing an increase in population due to the evolving traditional agricultural communities. These businesses are changing due to technology and automated machines that can cover acres of land more efficiently, like tractors.
“The small towns are not offering futures for the children, and so those people are moving into the cities [...] in a sort of transition from rural to urban,” said Adelman, a real estate developer.
Adelman added that despite there seeming to be a counterbalance, he does not see Texas flipping blue or becoming a swing state in this election, or any moving forward, given the amount of rural Texans and the strength of the Republican influence in the state. Instead, he hopes to see more appeals to moderate voters rather than single-issue candidacies.
Kosterlitzky disagrees and thinks that Texas could become a swing state in future elections due to the amount of Gen Z’s who have yet to age into voting eligibility. Similarly, Schatt sees Texas eventually flipping parties as the older population of Texas ceases to vote and Gen Z voters age in.
“[...] it will continue to stay blue once that happens because we’re only getting younger and younger populations that are turning voting age, and the younger generations are more progressive,” he said. “Once it goes blue, it’s not really turning back.”