Every election cycle, opinion polls and voting pattern analysis try to predict the electoral results of the 50 states. Each election also presents a small number of states so close in polling they could plausibly “swing” either way.
This year, these seven key battleground states are Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
Both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have invested immense amounts of time, money and resources into aggressively campaigning in these states. After all, how these states vote will ultimately determine the presidency.
USC, despite being located in the democratic stronghold of California, draws students from all across the nation. To better understand which way Trojans from swing states are leaning towards, Annenberg Media interviewed students from Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia and Pennsylvania.
Kyra Burkhardt, a freshman Neuroscience major, said her home state Michigan is constantly changing, and she cannot predict whether it will vote blue or red.
“In my state, it’s very polarizing at certain parts between the two parties because it’s always been such a flip between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party. Every year, you never really know what’s going to happen,” said Burkhardt.
In 2020, Michigan voted in favor of President Biden by less than 3%. In 2016, Trump won the state by less than 0.3%.
Burkhardt said she will be voting for Harris because of her stance on women’s rights.
“I think in this day and age and era, we really need a leader like her who’s strong in her beliefs and who will stand up for women’s rights and other issues,” said Burkhardt. “I think out of the two options we have, she’s the one that can lead our nation.”
Mayra Yepiz, a freshman majoring in pharmacology and drug development, is from Arizona. She said that voting in a swing state is crucial.
“Obviously, everyone’s vote counts, but in Arizona, it is a little more impactful,” said Yepiz.
Arizona is at the forefront of critical debates concerning immigration and border security, making it a highly contested state. Securing it is extremely valuable for both candidates.
Biden narrowly won the state in 2020, but political experts believe the state’s 11 electoral votes remain unpredictable.
Yepiz anticipates Arizona will swing left this election, citing an influx of California residents moving in. A recent CNN poll shows a shift in Harris’ favor, with support increasing among women, Latino voters and young people.
Alexa Didinsky, a sophomore majoring in philosophy, politics and law, is a member of USC’s Political Union, and votes in Wisconsin. In 2020, Biden won the state by a hair — 0.63% over Trump. This was the closest margin for the state since 2004.
Didinsky voted for Harris in the first week of September. She said under Trump, in Wisconsin, “there was either no change, or we were almost regressing.”
For Didinsky, abortion, gun control and labor unions are some of the key issues in determining her vote.
For some voters, however, being from a swing state is not reason enough to vote.
Alex Gettig is a junior from Georgia. According to CNN, Georgia is split in dead heat: 48% for Trump and 47% for Harris.
Gettig did not vote in this election. Neither did any of his friends back home. He said the absentee ballot was too confusing and time-consuming.
“If I really cared about who won, then I would have tried my absolute hardest, but it was a lot of work for me to try to figure it out,” Gettig said, “So I was just like, forget about it.”
“I don’t know how much one vote makes a difference,” he said.
Gettig added that political participation is uncommon among his friends back home, but he thinks they would have probably voted for Trump.
Pennsylvania is the most populous swing state, and the swing state with the greatest number of electoral votes: 19. Historically, it is difficult to win the White House without Pennsylvania. In 2020, Biden took the state by only 82,000 votes. In the days leading up to the election, all eyes are on Pennsylvania, with both candidates spending their final day campaigning there.
Jami Fogel is a senior cinema & media studies major from the suburbs outside of Philadelphia. She remembers how polarizing the election was for Pennsylvania in 2020.
“Every other yard had a Biden sign, a Trump sign, a Biden sign… friend groups split in half over the election. So it was a really big deal,” she said. This year, Fogel voted for Harris.
“I’m from a Jewish background, so I have a lot of friends who are pro-Trump only because he is pro-Israel. That is very important to me as a Jewish person,” Fogel said. “However, I live in America and things like abortion rights and gun control are a little bit more important to me and affect me more in my daily life.”
Despite being anxious for tomorrow, Fogel was excited about voting for a woman of color in her first election.
Not all Pennsylvanians have the election at the forefront of their mind. Jimmy Shao, a sophomore majoring in economics, said being focused on school meant he has not been present in election discourse.
“I know my vote matters because I’m in a battleground state, and that I should vote, but on the other hand, I wouldn’t be comfortable doing so because I feel like I’m not informed enough to make an informed vote,” said Shao.
His ballot was sent to his family home in Pennsylvania, and he didn’t end up turning it in.
“I am a first-generation student. My parents don’t really know how the whole system works, so it was really hard to explain how to mail it to me. I wasn’t able to make the deadline,” said Shao.
Mail-in and absentee ballots must be received on election day in most swing states to count. In Nevada, they must be postmarked on election day and received no more than four days later.