Back in 2020, only about a quarter of Gen Z voters (ages 18 to 23) said they were planning to vote for Donald Trump, according to Pew Research. Now, new data from a recent New York Times/Siena College poll suggests that a surprising number of young male voters are backing Donald Trump, showing that the former president’s targeted campaign strategies are working.
What do the numbers say?
The study found that young male voters in swing states lean toward Trump by 13 points, while young women support Democratic nominee Kamala Harris by 38 points—a striking 51-point gender divide among Gen Z voters.
According to 2024 Axios data, women aged 18 to 29 have become increasingly liberal in recent years, while young men’s liberal support has remained stagnant. Since 2000, the difference in the number of young women who identify as liberal compared to young men has grown five times larger, with young women in this age group now 15 percentage points more likely to identify as liberal compared to their male peers.
The gender gap surpassed 10 points in 2017, the year former President Trump took office. This year also conceded with the rise of #MeToo, a movement exposing sexual assault and empowering women to speak out.
Trump as a symbol of masculine pride
In a 2020 survey by the research organization PRRI, half of the men respondents agreed with the statement “These days society seems to punish men just for acting like men.”
Oliver Applebee, a freshman political science major and self-proclaimed conservative, said he agrees with this statement. Why? He said tap water is to blame.
“If you look at our tap water, it has a lot of human waste in it, including birth control, and some hormones that can’t be fully processed. In cities, guys are drinking estrogen from the tap water, which is making testosterone levels drop every decade,” he said. “So, I think the government, especially the liberal party, is really going after men.”
A CNBC article noted that figures like Alex Jones, a far-right conspiracy theorist, have promoted claims about “gender-altering” chemicals in the water. Applebee didn’t specify where he first encountered this idea, but his views reflect this theory spread in some conservative circles online. He said his skepticism toward government interference in masculinity reinforces his support for Trump.
In July, Trump was struck by a bullet in his ear at a Pennsylvania rally. When the former president quickly rebounded from the impact, raising his fist in the air, his supporters erupted in cheers. For young men like Applebee, this act confirmed Trump as a quintessential symbol of masculinity, further cementing their support.
“The aftermath of the shooting and how he handled it was definitely pretty badass, I would say, to keep pushing on and continuing to go to rallies is definitely something that is admirable as well,” Applebee said. “I think his resilience and strength is a huge appeal to young male voters.”
Michael Berry, host of the conservative Houston-based talk show The Michael Berry Show, said young men may be inspired by the strength they see in Trump, particularly after the assassination attempt.
“For young men who want to see someone who is a winner, a fighter who does not walk away from a fight, I think that him being shot in the head rallied a lot of people,” he said.
Berry also said he sees the gender gap in voters as a product of a “cultural war” where “young men are aligning themselves with a particular side regarding issues of sexuality, gender transition, and the definition of what it means to be a man.”
How is social media widening the gap?
As the election creeps closer, Trump has leaned further into male audiences, engaging in a variety of sit-down interviews with male internet personalities and podcasters such as Logan Paul and Adin Ross. In these interviews, Trump often speaks on non-political subjects, like UFC and boxing. These influencers are particularly popular among young men, with Logan Paul’s podcast drawing an 82% male viewership, according to NPR.
Kelsey Eyre Hammond, a program coordinator at American Enterprise Institute’s Survey Center on American Life, a conservative-leaning research institution that has done extensive analysis on the youth gender gap, noted the significance of young men getting a “sense of the world” from these internet personalities.
“Young men are getting a lot of their information from YouTubers and similar sources,” she said. “This is a demographic that Donald Trump is aware of, and he has the backing of influential figures like Elon Musk. Many young men see this and think, ‘This rich guy, along with other masculine figures who embody the male gaze, are the kind of men supporting Donald Trump.’”
Most of the podcasts Trump and Vice Presidential Candidate J.D. Vance have appeared on have predominantly male audiences. For instance, they appeared on the Full Send podcast with 91% male viewership, as well as the Lex Fridman podcast with 87% and the Shawn Ryan podcast with 84%, according to Edison Podcast Metrics.
“I think his use of male influencers is definitely effective,” Applebee said. “While it’s not my favorite aspect, especially depending on who he’s choosing to influence young male voters, I believe he has a strong platform. He’s reaching a significant audience among young male voters.”
Abortion debates widening the gap
The overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022, made possible by a Republican-dominated judiciary, propelled abortion rights to the center of the political stage. According to a 2023 Harvard poll, women aged 18-29 were significantly more likely to identify as pro-choice. On the issue of abortion, Hammond said the Democratic party has defined itself as a party “for women.”
“There’s been a big focus this season on reproductive rights, reproductive health care, access to abortion,” she said. “I think seeing so much content that’s focused on women makes them think, ‘Okay, this party’s for women.’ So that means maybe Donald Trump and the Republican Party are for men.”
As the Democratic nominee, Vice President Harris has put abortion rights at the forefront of her campaign. Recently, Harris appeared on a popular podcast with a large female audience called “Call Her Daddy,” where she discussed a range of topics from abortion access to personal stories about her upbringing, perhaps in an effort to connect with young women voters. According to NPR reporter Elena Moore, the “Call Her Daddy” audience is 70% women, and 93% of listeners are under 45.
Berry said this approach will “cost” the Harris campaign when it comes to male voters, especially making abortion the campaign’s number one issue.
“I do think it’s sort of pandering to women with these very female-oriented, ‘Men are awful’ approaches that have turned off a lot of young men,” he said.
Some young men feel culturally conflicted
Between a liberal-leaning family and friends increasingly backing Trump, Sebastian Seidenberg, a sophomore communications major, said he feels torn as to where to cast his vote. For Seidenberg, the choice next month will be deciding between what he said he sees as the “lesser of the evils.”
“Maybe I’ll agree with some of Donald Trump’s policies, and maybe I’ll agree with some of Kamala Harris’ policies,” he said. “But at the end of the day, it’s difficult for me to completely align with either side.”
Caught amidst this “cultural war,” Seidenberg said he has a hard time supporting either candidate because of increasing polarity in politics.
An estimated 40.8 million Gen Zers will be eligible to vote in the upcoming election, including 8.3 million newly eligible voters, according to The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement. As their political influence grows, this year’s election campaign has become a battleground for youth voters, with both Trump and Harris tailoring their strategies to win the demographic over. With millions of young voters like Seidenberg grappling with this polarized political and social landscape, their participation could play a pivotal role in the results this upcoming November.