A new poll conducted by USC, CSU Long Beach and Cal Poly Pomona last week shows that as the November election approaches, California voters, who have historically voted Democrat, support Kamala Harris more than they did Joe Biden earlier this year. Elections in the House remain close.
According to the statewide poll of 1,685 likely voters, Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are polling nearly five percentage points higher than the Biden-Harris ticket was before the Biden-Trump debate – and Biden’s large drop in approval.
“If she’s polling better than Biden, that means Democrats are enthusiastic about her in California… Democratic voters in the congressional districts that are competitive in the state are way more enthusiastic than Republican voters – about 10 percentage points more enthusiastic – which means you’re more likely to vote,” said Christian Grose, a political science, international relations and public policy professor at USC and lead pollster.
When California voters were asked to describe Trump, the most frequent descriptions were “narcissist,” “liar,” “criminal” and “dangerous.” These same voters most frequently described Harris as “strong,” “competent,” but also “incompetent” and “liar.”
Dakota Driemeyer, a junior majoring in law, history and culture and a member of the USC Republicans, said the poll’s findings were a reflection of the Harris campaign’s focus on shifting public opinion on Trump.
“All (Democrats) ran on is that ‘we aren’t Trump,’” Driemeyer said. “These people in this survey are responding and they call them a liar or a narcissist because that’s what the entire campaign has been.”
Voters’ support for Democrat candidates was also corroborated by Grose’s polling from last week, where Democrats are leading four of the six competitive United States House races in California. However, the poll notes that the margin of error signifies that all six races will be “statistical dead heats.”
In the U.S. Senate race, the polls found Democrat Adam Schiff maintaining a large lead over Republican Steve Garvey, with 52.7% of California likely voters supporting Schiff and 33.8% supporting Garvey.
The polling concluded five days before the vice presidential debate, set to air on CBS on October 1, which could influence voters’ decisions in November.
Kamy Akhavan, the executive director of the Dornsife Center for the Political Future, said the abnormal election cycle combined with the assassination attempts against Trump could encourage voters to focus more on the vice president in their voting decision.
“Normally, vice presidential debates don’t sway opinions and they don’t move the campaign needles up or down … But this election cycle is anything but normal,” Akhavan said. “And in this election cycle, given how close it is, even something like a vice presidential debate may sway voters.”
California voters currently have a positive view of Walz, with the poll showing that the words used most to describe him were “coach/teacher,” “kind” and “honest.” Vance, in contrast, was described as a “liar,” “opportunist” and “misogynist.”
“So I think for the debate, Vance really needs to get past some of those negative perceptions he’s got,” Professor Grose said. “And I think Walz needs to continue to push the narrative that is more positive, that he’s a coach and a teacher.”
However, Grose ultimately believes that the vice-presidential debate, while affecting some voters particularly in the Midwest, won’t significantly influence the outcome of the presidential election.
In addition to the presidential election, the poll looked ahead to the 2026 gubernatorial election and the early frontrunners in the race.
Since Gov. Gavin Newsom has reached his term limit, the new poll measured enthusiasm for potential gubernatorial candidates. U.S. Representative Katie Porter is taking an early lead, with 14% of the vote. She hasn’t declared her intention to run yet and didn’t participate in the governor candidate’s forum Sunday, but there are rumors circling that she might be interested, according to Grose.
Grose said that this level of support was “fairly high,” particularly considering that 13 candidates were included in the poll and about half the electorate is undecided. Most other Democratic candidates were splitting the vote, placing them in fifth place or lower.
However, he also suggested that this could be a ceiling for Porter.
“She ran for Senate and she didn’t win the primary. She came in third with Adam Schiff and Steve Garvey advancing this year for U.S. Senate,” Grose said. “And so this may be that there’s a base of support of around 14% for Katie Porter, but she can’t go beyond it, and some of these other candidates have more room to grow.”