With Election Day drawing near, California voters could tip the balance in the House of Representatives. Several political experts spoke about the upcoming elections during “A House Up for Grabs,” a USC webinar featuring a panel of political experts to discuss which party may control the U.S. House of Representatives.
Christian Grose, a political science and international relations professor at USC, cited the results of a recent poll conducted by the university’s Center for Inclusive Democracy.
“The house is probably going to swing one way or the other, it’s going to stay with the Republicans or it’s going to go to the Democrats based on what happens in these districts,” Grose said.
There are six congressional districts that may sway the control of the House of Representatives. These include some in Central California that could swing to either side of the political spectrum. With ongoing concern over the economy in California, and some voters projecting the blame onto Democrats -- including Democratic presidential nominee and current Vice President Kamala Harris -- Grose sees a shift in voting in these districts.
“Rural areas of the state and of the country that have traditionally been Democratic are flirting more with voting for Trump and Republicans than in the past,” Grose said.
This poll focused on voter eligibility in different racial and ethnic groups, some more prominent than others in these swing districts. This poll found that Latinos, African Americans and Asian Americans are just under 55 percent of California’s eligible voters as the 2024 elections approach.
According to Matthew Mendez Garcia, another panelist and associate professor of political science at CSU Long Beach, Congressional District 45, which encompasses parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties, has a prominent Vietnamese community.
But this doesn’t mean that Vietnamese American Democratic candidate Derek Tran has secured the community’s vote for the House seat.
Jarred Cuellar, assistant professor of political science at Cal Poly Pomona, said that voting preferences based on ethnicity are not as strong as they used to be.
“When it comes to co-ethnic voting, research has found that it is very powerful in the Latino community,” Cuellar said. “But when trying to replicate that to the Asian American community, it is not nearly as powerful, you don’t see nearly as much looking for someone that looks like you.”
With this polling and the projected outcomes of the 2024 elections, the election results might appear to already be set in stone. Garcia said that voters may still sway the results away from projected polling outcomes.
“People are just starting to tune in to the November race, right? Ballots are about to drop,” Garcia said.
The contentious House of Representatives seat races and the presidential election might push more California voters to the polls again. In 2020, the nation saw the highest voter turnout at just under 67 percent. Raquel Conteno, a USC political science and international relations PhD student and panelist, said the turnout might maintain this upward momentum on Election Day.
“Generally there is a level of excitement about the race,” Conteno said. “With this sort of massive shift in the presidential race so close to actual Election Day, I think people are excited and maybe paying a little bit more attention because there’s novelty to it.”
California ballot drop-off locations will open on October 8. Centers for early in-person voting will also open ahead of the election in some counties, including Los Angeles.