By now, most fantasy football managers have a general idea of how good their team is.
For example, if you’re a Mark Andrews owner like myself, it may be time to panic, as he posted zero points with just one target on Sunday.
This is also a crucial time to trade, as frantic managers looking to improve their teams are prone to making mistakes. Making these exploitative trades will bolster your fantasy lineup in the long run and ensure that you’ll compete for a playoff spot. Here are two moves you should be making ahead of Week 4.
Buy: Josh Jacobs
Josh Jacobs is among the few remaining workhorse running backs, as many teams have transitioned to running back committees.
The then-Oakland Raiders selected Jacobs No. 24 overall in 2019 from Alabama and he quickly proved to be one of the most dynamic runners in the NFL. From 2019-2022, the former Crimson Tide tailback averaged 1,185 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns a year, including a monster 2022 season in which Jacobs rushed for over 1,600 yards and found the end zone 12 times.
In 2023, however, Jacobs saw his numbers plummet, as he only rushed for 805 yards and six touchdowns on a measly 3.5 yards per carry. Jacobs also missed five games with various injuries, making his 2023 season one to forget.
At season’s end, Jacobs opted to not re-sign with the Raiders and instead inked a four-year, $48-million deal with the Green Bay Packers, joining head coach Matt LaFleur and quarterback Jordan Love.
Through three weeks of play, Jacobs hasn’t caught the attention of many, as he’s yet to score a touchdown and hasn’t been involved in the receiving game. Many managers who have Jacobs are beginning to panic because of his sub-standard production, but there should be close to zero concern with his season-long outlook.
The sixth-year running back has plenty of signs that he’ll be great throughout the rest of the season, and coming off a tough matchup against the Titans in which he only recorded 5.4 fantasy points, this is a clear buy-low.
In the first two weeks, Jacobs posted 5.25 and 4.72 yards per carry respectively, showcasing his efficiency in an improved situation. Between the two contests, he also averaged 24 rushing attempts, many more than the inexperienced backfield of Emmanuel Wilson and rookie MarShawn Lloyd who’s recovering from a hamstring injury.
Jacobs also hasn’t gotten any receiving work this season, something head coach Matt LaFleur almost always implements into his offensive attack. LaFleur’s former star running back Aaron Jones was a great example of this, as in seasons in which he played at least 14 games, he never received any less than 63 targets.
A trend that certainly won’t continue is his three-game touchdown drought, as the offense that is expecting Jordan Love to return soon will give Jacobs plenty of red-zone opportunities.
Managers who are looking to upgrade at running back should target Jacobs as it’s only a matter of time before positive regression in the receiving and touchdown department makes him a definite RB1.
Sell: Rachaad White
In full PPR leagues, running backs who command a lot of targets should be highly sought after. In Rachaad White’s case, he has been one of the best pass-catching backs in the NFL, but his efficiency on the ground is a cause for concern.
In 2023, White finished with over 1,500 all-purpose yards, including 549 receiving yards. He also finished fourth in the NFL in targets and added nine total touchdowns. However, he benefited from an extremely friendly situation in which he finished second in the NFL in total touches, had little to no competition in the backfield and operated in a good offense.
White’s career yards per carry is only 3.6 and even with 272 rushing attempts, he was unable to crack 1,000 yards on the ground.
In addition to his inefficiencies, this season, third-round pick Bucky Irving has started to chip into his workload. He’s already proven to be a much more efficient runner, as in a small sample size, he’s rushed 25 times for 154 yards, good for 6.2 yards per carry.
Head coach Todd Bowles will only give Irving increased chances if White continues to struggle and the only appealing factor he’ll have for fantasy is his limited receiving work.
The volume is no longer there for White, as the competition in the Bucs’ backfield will only see him lose snaps over time. White is still a mid-tier RB2 in my book, but it will be virtually impossible for him to replicate his 2023 season.
With Chris Godwin re-emerging in Tampa Bay’s offense out of the slot, that will only further limit White’s ceiling, and I highly advise any Rachaad White owner to sell based on name value.
While trades are important to improve a fantasy football roster, being active on the waivers may be what makes or breaks your season.
The Waiver Wire
2023 saw a plethora of waiver wire gems, including offensive rookie of the year C.J. Stroud, star rookie wideout Puka Nacua, running back Kyren Williams and others that contributed big points for managers that believed in them.
This season has already seen big names hit the injured reserve, and it’s important that you pick up whoever’s behind them on the depth chart.
For example, Christian McCaffrey—who has cemented himself as the best running back in the NFL—went down with Achilles tendonitis and won’t return until at least Week 6. Jordan Mason was next up on the depth chart and he’s delivered in a big way for head coach Kyle Shanahan. Through three games as the starter, he’s eclipsed 100 rushing yards twice, scored two touchdowns and has averaged 4.8 yards per carry.
I’m not advising managers to fill their bench with backups as it’s unlikely that most of them will see significant action in their current situations. However, if you have a star player with an extensive injury history or see their talent fading, then picking up their “handcuff” before an injury will save you plenty of FAAB (free agent acquisition budget), or having to trade for them.
Prime historical examples would be the aforementioned Williams and Devon Achane, two running backs who were behind the starters on the depth chart to begin the year, but with injuries and lackluster play, they pounced on their opportunities and took over the starting job.
This should only be done in deeper leagues as you shouldn’t be sacrificing startable depth for a “what if” player. However, this season there are a couple of must-have handcuffs that will win you your league if they get their chance.
You should also only be picking up handcuffs where they have an opportunity to flourish in a good offense. Williams and Achane were both a part of fantasy-friendly offenses, giving them valuable volume and touchdown opportunities.
Managers shouldn’t be looking at backup running backs and wide receivers on teams like the Panthers and Giants, as their upside is capped and won’t be worth the roster spot, even if they get an expanded role with their teams.
There is one running back this season in particular that I see has the best chance of succeeding if given the opportunity and that’s Cardinals running back Trey Benson.
Benson was the second running back taken off the board in the 2024 NFL Draft, as Arizona selected him in the third round to back up James Conner.
Conner has long been riddled with injuries and as he approaches his later years with a workhorse role, stashing Benson could be valuable if he’s available.
The Cardinals are led by quarterback Kyler Murray and have a solid offense. Should Benson get an opportunity with Conner sidelined, he would immediately be a mid- to high-end RB2.
Any James Conner owner should be doing anything in their power to acquire Benson. This can also work against them if they don’t, as other managers can charge a premium price given the circumstances and Conner’s injury history.
What separates a good manager from a bad one is being proactive, as missing out on the next bright star might be the difference between the playoffs and the toilet bowl.