School’s back in session, which means the summer’s over and tennis’ main events are too. While it’ll be a few months until the major season restarts with the Australian Open in January, the gap gives fans and players time to reflect on the last year.
On the court, the emergence of Jannik Sinner and the consistency of Carlos Alcaraz defined the season. Both players took home two major trophies, with Sinner dominating the hard courts in Melbourne and New York while Alcaraz defended his Wimbledon title and won for the first time at Roland-Garros. 24-time slam winner Novak Djokovic didn’t add to his collection this year, but he didn’t end the year empty-handed after he took down Alcaraz in straight sets at the Olympics.
Sinner took home titles and climbed to the No. 1 spot in the ATP ranking, but he wasn’t the only player to improve over the year. Americans Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe both earned semifinal appearances at the U.S. Open, with Fritz ultimately falling to the Italian phenom in the final. Sebastian Korda saw the most change this year, winning the Citi Open in D.C. and recently surpassing Tiafoe and Ben Shelton in the ranking.
And, like always, some players rose or fell. Alexander Zverev has yet to claim a major title, but still seems to be there or thereabouts among the contenders and is now ranked No. 2. Lorenzo Musetti and Jack Draper made Cinderella runs at different points in the year, while mainstays like Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud were disappointing and showed few signs of life.
The ups and downs of the year then beg the question, out of the players yet to win a slam, who has the best chance of making it happen next year?
Lorenzo Musetti
The second-ranked Italian nearly made it happen this year at Wimbledon before he fell to Djokovic in the semifinals in straight sets. Though Musetti didn’t have the toughest path to the semis—the only other seeded player he faced was a No. 13 Fritz—he’s proven he can play with the best on grass. At Queen’s Club in the weeks leading up to Wimbledon, Musetti took himself to the finals.
A long history of injuries and cramping have impaired Musetti’s agility, but if he were to get healthy this offseason he stands a solid chance of making a similar run at Wimbledon next season. Musetti’s also proven he can play on clay. He made the semifinals at the Olympics and had a strong showing at the French Open before Djokovic stopped him there as well.
The 22-year-old has shown he can play at the net too, utilizing drop shots when the opportunity arises and moving up and down the court as necessary. Musetti also possesses the patience to play out points and not be too quick to go for winners, which is crucial in the five-set matches played at slams. The underlying issue for Musetti is his ability to stay composed in top-level matches against the likes of Alcaraz and Sinner, fellow youngsters whom Musetti will be competing against in the foreseeable future.
If Musetti can improve his fitness throughout the offseason and stay injury-free next year, look for the No. 15 to play for a slam next season.
Ben Shelton
The 21-year-old American has only been a pro for two years and has already made quite a name for himself. Through these two years, Shelton’s won two tournaments in Houston and Tokyo, and most notably made a semifinal run at the U.S. Open in 2023. Performances aside, Shelton’s charismatic playstyle often means he has the crowd on his side, and he’s proven fearless on the big stage.
With a serve that once reached 149 miles per hour, Shelton’s hard-hitting game is something opponents dread. With a 6-foot-4, 195-pound frame, his serving power and accuracy have given him the edge throughout his deep tournament runs. Shelton also possesses a left-hand forehand, which allows him to slip shots past unprepared opponents.
Shelton’s by no means invincible, though. During long rallies, Shelton often emerges as the loser because of impatience or greed. He can sometimes be too quick to go for winners and doesn’t have the agility other players on tour do. Shelton’s a gifted athlete, but one area he could improve upon this offseason is his quickness and getting to every ball.
Besides minor details in his game, time is the only real obstacle between Shelton and winning a major. He’s on the younger side of the tour, and if he continues trending upward it’ll only be a matter of time before Shelton hoists a major trophy.
Alex de Minaur
Alex de Minaur’s had his fair share of success over the last five years. He’s won nine ATP tournaments over that period, namely Atlanta in 2019 and 2022, so he’s not unaccustomed to the spotlight.
The Australian made the quarterfinals in every slam this year except for his home Australian Open, and was set to face Djokovic in the Wimbledon quarters until a hip injury forced him to retire. The 25-year-old climbed to No. 6 in the world after he ran in London, but took the next month-and-a-half off to recover in time for the U.S. Open, where he reached yet another quarterfinal.
De Minaur is in a similar boat to Musetti and needs to use the offseason to return to full fitness before next year. Given the stamina required to go deep in slams and Masters 1000 tournaments, de Minaur’s injury bug was holding him back and prevented him from playing Djokovic in a match that would have been the biggest of his life.
Compared to Shelton, de Minaur is one of the quickest players on tour and can stay in points. That speed has been a huge part of his success, but if he wants to take his career to the next level he needs to improve on some of the fundamentals, like backhand returns and matching the ball spin that other players have.
Adolfo Gutierrez has been in de Minaur’s coaching box since the Aussie turned nine, and the bond between the two is stronger than ever. Gutierrez emphasizes the mental side of the sport, and de Minaur seems to have no issues there. But if the nine-year professional wants to take it to the next level, he needs to match the likes of Sinner and Alcaraz in ball speed, serve and returns.