After an opening weekend without the usual bombardment of upsets, March Madness is set up for an excellent round of Sweet Sixteen matchups against the nation’s top teams. Here is a breakdown of all of them.
East Region
(1) Connecticut vs. (5) San Diego State
In last year’s National Championship Final, the Connecticut Huskies thumped the San Diego State Aztecs, 76-59. Is that how the rematch will play out?
Of the eight players who scored in Connecticut’s championship effort against the Aztecs last season, only three returned to play for the 2024 Huskies. Senior Tristen Newton, sophomore Alex Karaban, and sophomore Donovan Clingan scored roughly 37% of the team’s points in last year’s final, which means that San Diego State is looking at a very different Connecticut team in preparation for their Sweet Sixteen matchup.
However, the Aztecs are in a similar position. They also returned three scorers from last season’s championship loss. All seniors—Jaedon Ledee, Lamont Butler and Darrion Trammell—scored more than 55% of San Diego State’s points in the final, a higher proportion than Connecticut’s returners.
Does that make the Aztecs more prepared for the rematch?
Not necessarily. The three returning Huskies increased their scoring output by a collective 15.5 points per game, and Connecticut added two new double-digit scorers to their roster this season. Freshman Stephon Castle and Cam Spencer, a senior transfer from Rutgers, add a combined 25.2 points per game to the stat sheet this season, including 47 points in this tournament so far.
San Diego State’s lone double-digit scorer is Ledee, who has scored 58 points himself in the Aztecs’ first two rounds.
San Diego State’s round of 64 matchup against the No. 12 seed UAB Blazers unexpectedly came down the last few possessions. They drew another double-digit seed in the round of 32, the No. 13 seed Yale Bulldogs, but easily blew them out. On the other hand, Connecticut has looked completely dominant in their first two games, including a dismantling of Northwestern in which the Huskies once had a 30-point lead.
The Pick: Connecticut
Connecticut plays drop coverage on ball screens more than most teams in the country, which will give San Diego State some open looks. However, the Aztecs aren’t particularly fond of shooting (or making) 3-pointers, and the Huskies’ top-three offense will be a lot to handle for a defense accustomed to smaller, less talented Mountain West Conference teams. Expect Connecticut to move on to the Elite Eight.
(2) Iowa State vs. (3) Illinois
In what might be the best matchup of the Sweet Sixteen, the Iowa State Cyclones’ No. 1-ranked defense will face off against the Illinois Fighting Illinis’ No. 1-ranked offense.
Illinois is led by their 6-6 senior combo guard, Terrence Shannon, who has averaged 23.3 points per game on the season and 28 points per game through the Fighting Illinis’ first two games of the tournament. However, Shannon’s impressive scoring outburst in the first weekend of March Madness wasn’t against elite competition. Both of Illinois’s opponents were double-digit mid-major schools (No. 14 seed Morehead State and No. 11 seed Duquesne), and neither of them put up much of a fight. The Fighting Illinis come into the Sweet Sixteen having outscored their NCAA Tournament matchups by an average of 21 points, which indicates an encouraging level of dominance so far.
Iowa State easily handled their first-round game, but the Cyclones didn’t “dominate” the No. 7 seed Washington State Cougars in the second round. However, Iowa State’s slower tempo and defensive focus does not translate to big margins of victory, and they have proven themselves as worthy opponents against elite competition. Counting their round of 32 victory, the Cyclones enter this week having won their last four games against ranked opponents, including the Baylor Bears and Houston Cougars en route to their Big 12 Conference Tournament Championship victory.
On the other hand, Illinois has struggled against elite competition this year. They played in five games versus ranked opponents, with their lone victory coming against a Florida Atlantic Owls squad that lost in the round of 64 and hasn’t been ranked in over a month.
The Pick: Iowa State
The schematic matchup here is fascinating. Iowa State hedges and blitzes ball handlers in screening action more than any other defense in the country, but Illinois is deadly-efficient from 2-point range and will welcome double teams at the top of the key. The Fighting Illini defense is the opposite: they almost never blitz and play drop coverage more than almost anyone. That will leave Iowa State with 3-point opportunities, which they are hit-or-miss with this season. However, last week the Cyclones hit 48.6% of their attempts beyond the arc. Are they due for regression, or will their hot streak continue?
This game is a coin flip, but because Iowa State is more battle-tested, I would lean in their direction. Ultimately, I would take the winner of Connecticut/San Diego State over Illinois/Iowa State to advance to the Final Four.
West Region
(2) Arizona vs. (6) Clemson
Although this tournament hasn’t had nearly as many upsets as most iterations of March Madness, not many fans expected to see the No. 6 seed Clemson Tigers still alive in the second weekend. One of the trendiest upset picks for the round of 64 was the No. 11 seed New Mexico Lobos to knock out the Tigers, but Clemson more than survived, blowing out the Lobos by more than 20 points. Then the Tigers pulled off an upset of their own, bouncing the No. 3 Baylor Bears, who were favored by about five points.
Can Clemson keep it going against the Arizona Wildcats? Arizona is coming off of two double digit victories, and their star senior transfer Caleb Love scored more than 18 points in both. Love spent his last three seasons with the North Carolina Tar Heels, who are used to playing Clemson in ACC play. Love won each of his last two matchups against the Tigers and scored a combined 33 points on 24 attempts in the wins.
Clemson has played against Arizona just three times in school history and never won, but their last matchup was over ten years ago. The Tigers do not often face Pac-12 competition: their last meeting was in an eight point victory over the California Golden Bears in 2022.
The Pick: Arizona
The Wildcats are No. 2 seed for a reason, and it would be hard to pick against them here. Clemson lost three of their last four games heading into March Madness and got lucky in the first two rounds with clear schematic advantages over New Mexico and Baylor. With Arizona’s blazing-fast offensive tempo and elite talent on both ends, Clemson will no longer have the schematic upper hand.
(1) North Carolina vs. (4) Alabama
The North Carolina Tar Heels have a top-20 offense and top-10 defense, and they put their well-balanced attack on full display in the opening rounds of the tournament. In their opener, the Tar Heels blew out the No. 16 seed Wagner Seahawks.
While they were favored in the round of 32 against the No. 9 seed Michigan State Spartans, the game did not play out as closely as expected. Michigan State entered the game ranked as the No. 16 team per Kenpom, and they were only 3.5 point underdogs despite North Carolina being the No. 1 seed in the West Region. However, North Carolina more than quadrupled the spread and punched their ticket to the Sweet Sixteen with a 16-point victory.
The Alabama Crimson Tide similarly cruised to the tournament’s second weekend, albeit against inferior competition. The Crimson Tide dropped 109 points on Charleston’s head in the first round and beat Grand Canyon by double digits in the round of 32. Alabama is characterized by its high-pace offensive tempo, which ranks eighth nationally per Kenpom, but their defense is not very strong.
The Pick: North Carolina
The blueprint to beat Alabama is to keep pace with their offense and try to outscore them. In this year’s tournament field, there were five teams that ranked in the top 50 fastest tempos and top 20 most efficient offenses per Kenpom. Two of them are Alabama and North Carolina, two of them were eliminated in the first round (Kentucky and Florida) and one of them could very well be waiting for the winner of this game in the Elite Eight: Arizona. I don’t see Alabama surviving both of those matchups, and with their talent and experience, North Carolina has proven that they have a better chance of playing in Phoenix next week.
South Region
(2) Marquette vs. (11) N.C. State
The NCAA Tournament is known for parity and lots of upsets, but only one double-digit seed advanced to the Sweet Sixteen this year: the No. 11 seed N.C. State Wolfpack. The Wolfpack started the season an impressive 11-3 before an abysmal 6-11 stretch to end their regular season. Then, N.C. State stole a bid to March Madness by winning five games in five days en route to an ACC Conference Tournament Championship victory. They are the 2024 Cinderella team. Can they keep it going against the Marquette Golden Eagles?
Last season, Marquette bowed out of their No. 2 seed campaign early, but head coach Shaka Smart brought back almost the entire team for this year. Per Kenpom, the Golden Eagles rank third in minutes continuity, which means only two other teams retained more of their contributing roster from last season. Their leading scorer on the year, Kameron Jones, averaged 23 points per game last week and has experience against ACC competition. Since his sophomore season, Jones has averaged 18.3 points per game on 50% shooting against ACC opponents.
However, the Golden Eagles have not faced off against N.C. State since 2009, which means they have never faced D.J. Burns Jr, the Wolfpack’s star big man who has taken the country by storm. Burns weighs in at 260 pounds and dominates opposing defenses in the post. During N.C. State’s seven-game win streak since the start of the ACC Tournament, Burns has averaged 16.6 points per game while making 64.9% of his field goal attempts, an absurdly efficient mark.
The Pick: Marquette … in a toss-up
Will Marquette be able to stop him? Defensively, the Golden Eagles are prone to giving up threes, which gives N.C. State a chance to win, but only if they shift their style of play. Talent-wise, the No. 2 seed Golden Eagles have the No. 11 seed Wolfpack outmatched, and they have the schematic advantage, as well. Still, this one’s a coin flip based on how hot N.C. State is coming into this game.
(1) Houston vs. (4) Duke
It took an overtime period for the Houston Cougars to get rid of the No. 9 seed Texas A&M Aggies in the round of 32, easily the closest any of the No. 1 seeds came to missing the Sweet Sixteen. Should fans be worried about Houston’s chances?
Houston ranks as the No. 2 defense per Kenpom, and they meet all of the criteria of recent championship teams. However, their strengths are the same as they have been in the past few seasons, and in each of the last three years, Houston was eliminated by a team with a top-10 Kenpom offense.
The Duke Blue Devils currently rank as the No. 5 offense, and they have cruised to the Sweet Sixteen behind an average margin of victory of 27.5 points against two mid-major schools, Vermont and James Madison. Now, against a power-five opponent, the Blue Devils will look to continue their offensive success.
Duke has five double-digit scorers and is led by senior seven-footer Kyle Filipowski, who contributes more than 16 points and eight rebounds per game. However, he scored only 17 points last week, which shows that the Blue Devils do not rely on a single offensive option.
The Pick: Duke
Because of Houston’s failure to stop elite offenses in past tournaments, I slightly lean Duke in this matchup. However, the Cougars are more battle-tested: against ranked opponents, Duke is 2-3, whereas Houston is 6-2, including wins against Iowa State and Baylor. The South Region is the only quadrant of the bracket where all four teams left have a feasible chance of making the Final Four, and Houston and Duke are the region’s two best teams.
Midwest Region
(1) Purdue vs. (5) Gonzaga
Most bracket makers picked the Connecticut Huskies to cut down the nets (which seems like a solid pick in its own right), but the No. 1 seed Purdue Boilermakers were the most dominant team through the first two rounds of the tournament. They crushed Grambling State by 28 points, and they led by 41 points before resting most key contributors in their rout of the Utah State Aggies. The Boilermakers are shooting 42.6% from three as a team, and Zach Edey has averaged 26.5 points per game.
On Nov. 20, Edey scored 25 against the Gonzaga Bulldogs defense in a ten-point victory. Purdue made less than 25% of their threes in that game and still won by double digits, but Gonzaga has improved since then. After starting 11-5, a far cry from their usual regular season dominance, the Bulldogs have gone 16-2, including wins versus Kentucky, Saint Mary’s, and Kansas in the round of 32 last week. Against the Jayhawks, Gonzaga senior Anton Watson led the way with 21 points.
Watson is one of three Gonzaga starters taller than 6-7, but none of them are close to Edey’s height at 7-4.
The Pick: Purdue
Gonzaga’s size will likely be a detriment to them in this matchup, as they don’t have the bodies to stop Edey, and their taller starters will be unable to chase around Purdue’s lethal guard attack that can score from the perimeter. Purdue is a team of destiny, and it would be shocking if they lost in the Sweet Sixteen.
(2) Tennessee vs. (3) Creighton
The Tennnessee Volunteers are buoyed by the most versatile scorer in the country, Dalton Knecht, who averages 21.1 points per game this season and can get buckets from all three levels of the court. Although he struggled shooting in the first two rounds (39.4% from the floor), he has given the Volunteers 20.5 points per game and will need to continue to score while increasing his efficiency if the Volunteers are to continue winning in this tournament. In fact, their round of 32 match against Texas went down to the wire, resulting in a narrow four-point victory.
On the other hand, it took the Creighton Bluejays two overtime periods to beat the No. 11 seed Oregon Ducks. The Bluejays shot 44.6% from three last week, which is well above their season average. Their main contributors, Ryan Kalkbrenner and Trey Alexander, are playing to their usual standard, while the supporting cast has taken things up a notch. Whether or not Creighton advances will largely depend on the play of their bench.
The Pick: Tennessee
Tennessee has the No. 3-ranked defense in the country and plays a multitude of defensive coverages at an elite level. Therefore, Creighton will have to play a near-perfect offensive game to beat the Volunteers. Conversely, Creighton plays drop coverage almost exclusively, which will give Tennessee open looks from beyond the arc and in deep mid-range. With that in mind, expect Tennessee to lean on their top scorer. Where Knecht goes, Tennessee goes, but I would expect either of these teams to lose to Purdue in the proverbial Elite Eight matchup.