SAN DIEGO — After an extremely disappointing performance in the 2023 season and an offseason full of cutting salaries, the Padres enter Opening Day this year with a less-heralded roster, at least on paper. But did they take one step back in the offseason to take two steps forward on the diamond? That’s the question.
Over the winter, the Padres lost their best hitter (Juan Soto), best starter (Blake Snell), best reliever (Josh Hader), and more than half of the starting rotation. The loss of three-time Manager of the Year, Bob Melvin, does not help either. Even if the pieces didn’t mesh as expected in 2023, those departures left major holes in the roster.
New manager, Mike Shildt, will have to put last season squarely in the rearview mirror to lead the Padres to the playoffs. However, the NL West is as tough as ever. The Dodgers have reloaded their already star-studded roster with Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Diamondbacks are fresh off a National League Pennant and the Giants just hired away the Padres’s previous manager and reigning Cy Young award recipient.
Given all of those offseason changes, here’s the Padres’ projected lineup for Opening Day:
- 2B Xander Bogaerts
- RF Fernando Tatis Jr.
- 1B Jake Cronenworth
- 3B Manny Machado
- SS Ha-Seong Kim
- LF Jurickson Profar
- C Luis Campusano
- DH Tyler Wade
- CF Jackson Merrill
The Padres did not make a notable addition to replace Soto, but they did add some young talent that may prove themselves as legitimate big-league contributors. Merrill is MLB Pipeline’s No. 12 overall prospect in the minor leagues, as he is a skilled contact hitter from the left side whose insane athleticism should help make the transition to the Show a lot quicker and easier.
Snell, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, and Nick Martinez departed in free agency this past offseason, leaving the Padres to remake a rotation that had the tied-best team ERA in 2023. Brito or Matt Waldron seem to be the likeliest candidates to make the rotation as the fifth starter. However, Darvish is 37 and has been a below-average starter in two of the last three seasons; Musgrove threw under 100 innings last season because of injury; King is still new to the organization, and Brito is fairly new to the big-league level. And after the additions of Cease and King to round out the Padres’ corps of starting pitchers, this is the projected rotation for 2024:
- RHP Yu Darvish
- RHP Joe Musgrove
- RHP Dylan Cease
- RHP Michael King
- RHP Jhony Brito
The Padres also lost closer Josh Hader to free agency. They did, however, make several additions, including those of Woo-Suk Go and Yuki Matsui, both of whom signed as international free agents. The signing of Wandy Peralta should be a huge help in pitching relief as well. With that said, here is the projected bullpen for 2024:
Projected bullpen:
- Closer: RHP Robert Suarez
- Setup: LHP Yuki Matsui, RHP Enyel De Los Santos
- Middle: LHP Wandy Peralta, RHP Woo-Suk Go, RHP Tom Cosgrove
- Long: RHP Luis Patiño
The team MVP will most likely be Fernando Tatis Jr. After missing the 2022 season due to a PED suspension, he had a productive ‘23 season, as he is now a certified platinum glove winner, and managed to belt 25 home runs and swipe 29 bags in his return to the team. Tatis expertly handled his transition to the outfield and remained healthy, signaling that he has a strong basis for an even better 2024. The team Cy Young will be Cease, who has made his full contingent of starts in each of his four full seasons.
The club’s goal this season should be to make the playoffs. Even with Soto and Snell’s departure, there is enough talent that San Diego can insert themselves in the hunt for the NL West or at least a wild-card spot.
In order to make the playoffs, though, the Padres will have to develop a stronger in-game mentality. The Friars squeezed out a winning record of 82-80 in 2023, but were particularly ill-fated in one-run (9-23) and extra-inning (2-12) contests, letting many winnable games slip away. The Padres need to capitalize on their opportunities and need to fight back when the season gets tough. With Bogaerts in his second year in San Diego, a healthier Tatis and Machado, a deep rotation and a potential stud prospect waiting in the wings … the Padres are a sleeper.
Now that baseball is back, the Padres have, arguably, never been more back and ready to leave 2023 in the dust.