This Thursday, the main draw of the NCAA Tournament finally tips off! In a perfect world, everyone would have the time to watch each game and keep up with their (hopefully perfect) brackets, but with 32 games over the next two days, that isn’t very plausible. Thankfully, I’ve hand-picked four first-round games that are most likely to go down as March Madness classics!
(8) Mississippi State vs. (9) Michigan State, Thursday 9:15 am PDT
The Michigan State Spartans opened the AP’s preseason poll as the No. 4 ranked team in the country before losing three of their first six games, including an overtime loss to the mid-major James Madison Dukes in their home opener. Afterwards, the Spartans never found their way back into the Top 25 and disappointed in Big Ten conference play, finishing the regular season with a 10-10 Big Ten record and losses in four of their last five contests.
Despite this, Michigan State has elite metrics: Kenpom ranks them as the No. 19 team, which is the highest out of nine seeds and would be the highest out of seven and eight seeds, as well. This is because of head coach Tom Izzo’s elite defensive personnel. The Spartans aggressively blitz ball handlers on pick-and-rolls and consistently thwart transition offenses based on incredible physicality.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs dealt with tough, athletic defenses all season in the SEC and beat numerous teams in the tournament field, including Washington State, Northwestern, and Tennessee. Was their strength of schedule enough to prepare them for this first-round duel? The Bulldogs had more success than Michigan State in the regular season, but the analytics suggest that Coach Izzo’s reputation of leading the Spartans to outperform their expectations in the postseason may continue. It will be a tight battle, and the winner will likely face off against North Carolina in the round of 32. Could the Spartans or Bulldogs compete with the top-seeded Tar Heels? First, they’ll have to get through each other.
(7) Washington State vs. (10) Drake, Thursday 7:05 pm PDT
Don’t be fooled by the seed disparity between the Washington State Cougars and the Drake Bulldogs. Drake is currently the odds-on favorite to win this matchup, and for good reason. The Bulldogs stole Indiana State’s bid to the NCAA Tournament in the Missouri Valley Conference Championship Game, but they might have made the field regardless based on an impressive at-large resume. Drake beat Akron and Nevada, two other teams in the field, early in the regular season, and they head into the tournament with a 28-6 record, including a five-game winning streak.
Drake makes over 35% of their 3-pointers, a number that may haunt the Cougars, who run drop coverage on over half of opposing offensive pick-and-rolls. In other words, Drake will have opportunities for open threes all night long. If they are hitting them, Washington State is vulnerable to be “upset.”
On the other hand, if Drake has an off night, it will be due to their lackluster transition defense. Washington State converts on transition scoring attempts at an elite rate, which would make potential Drake missed 3-pointers costly for the Bulldogs.
Ultimately, this battle will be dictated by shooting. Look for Drake’s star junior forward Tucker DeVries to dictate the result of the game. He has made 84 threes this season, and the Bulldogs will lean on him for success in the first round and beyond.
(6) Clemson vs. (11) New Mexico, Friday 12:10 pm PDT
Here’s another game where the “underdog” (based on their seed) is favored by betting markets. On Selection Sunday, analysts were shocked that the New Mexico Lobos were slotted in as an 11-seed. They are ranked as the 22nd-most efficient team on Kenpom, which is higher than every 7, 8, and 10-seed, and all but one 9-seed (see Michigan State above). The Lobos started the season 18-3 before a disappointing 4-6 regular season finish, but their Mountain West Conference Championship victory run included three straight wins against teams in the field, which suggests they are back on track.
Clemson also finished the regular season weaker than they started. The Tigers started at 9-0 but are since just one game above .500. Unlike New Mexico, Clemson’s conference tournament appearance was brief and uninspired, a 21-point loss to an 18-14 Boston College team that had not beaten an NCAA Tournament team up to that point.
However, Clemson matches up well schematically with New Mexico. The Tigers’ defensive system, which leaves 3-point shooters open around the perimeter, is unlikely to hurt them, as the Lobos rarely shoot threes and do not make them at a high clip. Conversely, while New Mexico’s defense swarms 3-point shooters, a high number of Clemson’s baskets will come at the rim, which has worked for the Tigers this year.
New Mexico appears to be the more energized team, but they may have problems with Clemson’s style of play. This makes for the best kind of first-round matchup in which either result would feel line an upset.
(5) Wisconsin vs. (12) James Madison, Friday 6:40 pm PDT
Every year, there is a 12-seed vs. 5-seed upset that everyone filling out a bracket seems to like, and the James Madison Dukes appear to be the people’s first-round “Cinderella” this season. How likely are they to upset the Wisconsin Badgers?
In James Madison’s first game this season, they upset a different Big Ten opponent, Michigan State, on the road. Since then, the Dukes are 30-3, with the nation’s longest active win streak at 13 games (and counting). However, besides their opener, strength of schedule is a major concern, as they only faced two other teams in this year’s field (Howard and Akron), one of whom is a 16-seed.
Wisconsin has ten more losses than James Madison, but they also have wins over Marquette, Northwestern, and Purdue along with twice as many wins than the Dukes against Michigan State. Theoretically, they should be prepared for a mid-major opponent.
However, much like Drake in their first-round matchup, James Madison lives and dies at the 3-point line, and Wisconsin tends to give opponents lots of open looks. The Dukes have five different players with more than 40 made 3-pointers, and each of them make at least 35% of their attempts. Therefore, if one of them has an off night, it’s likely that one of the others will have a hot hand.