Whatever the results of the forthcoming 2023-23 NBA player awards, the race has been nothing but special. Awards are difficult to predict because they often depend on team performance and narrative. For example, last season, one could argue that Joel Embiid won the MVP award because voters simply grew bored of Nikola Jokić's excellence. That’s not to say Embiid didn’t have an all-time season, but we have to take these sympathies into account.
That being said, Nikola Jokić is the front-runner for what would be his third MVP award in four seasons. French sensation Victor Wembanyama is the consensus Rookie of the Year—though Chet Holmgren has earned consideration for the award. All of the other awards—Defensive Player of the Year, Most Improved, Sixth Man, Coach of the Year, and Executive of the Year—are extremely tight at the moment. We have about 25 more games to decide every NBA individual honor, which means it’s officially crunch time. Here is a full preview of the upcoming NBA awards as we approach the end of the 2023-24 season regular season:
MVP: Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets
The league leader in box plus-minus and value-over-replacement player, Nikola Jokić once again has a well-grounded statistical case to take home his third career MVP. If Jokić were to sustain his leads in these catch-all categories, 2023-24 would be his fourth season atop those leaderboards.
Though the Denver Nuggets seem less interested in pushing for the top seed that would bolster his MVP case, Jokić's impact on team success is undeniable. Denver’s net rating is an obscene 22.0 points per 100 possessions higher with him on the floor, which is easily the top figure in the league among players with at least 500 minutes of court time.
Runner-Up: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Thunder is currently first in the West, largely due to the 25-year-old guard solidifying himself as perhaps the toughest guard to defend in the league. SGA is on track to average over 30 points per game for the second straight year and also leads the league in steals per game.
While Jokić's on-off numbers are better than SGA’s, that largely has to do with the supporting cast that blows leads while Gilgeous-Alexander rests. With Jokić on the floor, Denver has an excellent plus-10.0 net rating. OKC produces a superior plus-11.7 net rating with SGA in the game. The winner of this battle involving that particular stat depends on the definition of “valuable.” Valuable can mean many things to various people, but I define valuable as the player whose performance is most excellent in the league.
Worth a mention: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks; Luka Dončić, Dallas Mavericks; Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
Rookie of the Year: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
The battle for Rookie of the Year between Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren appears to be coming to an end. Wemby and Holmgren just matched up on leap day last week and it was clear that Wembenyama stole the show. Not only did the Spurs beat the Thunder in their third matchup of the season, but Wemby scored 28 points and grabbed 13 rebounds, while Holmgren scored 23 points and only grabbed seven boards. Wemby’s 31 points and his team’s win against the Pacers completed the restoration of order after Holmgren had jumped out to an early-season lead for ROTY. Just as so many expected when the Spurs used the No. 1 overall pick on the most highlighted prospect in years, Wembenyama is a franchise-making, league-changing star.
Wembenyama should also be in the running for Defensive Player of the Year on the strength of his 98th-percentile defensive estimated plus-minus score. Wemby also leads the league in blocks per game and in total, and is on track to become the fourth player in the last 20 years to average at least three blocks and one steal per game. By also averaging 20 points per game, Wemby proves he belongs in his own tier among rookies.
Runner-Up: Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder
Holmgren leads Wembenyama in estimated plus-minus and estimated wins, and he is also doing it for the first-place Thunder, so he deserves credit for contributing to winning basketball. At 17.1 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 0.7 steals per game, and 2.7 blocks per game, the OKC big man trails Wemby in all five categories. However, Wembenyama is the only rookie this season beating Holmgren across the board in these statistical areas.
The key difference between the two is their role on the team. The Thunder don’t task Holmgren with the same level of defensive responsibilities that Wembenyama has and the former Gonzaga Bulldog has great talent around him compared to Wemby’s Spurs teammates. However, Holmgren’s 64.4% true shooting percentage is also well above Wemby’s 56.3%.
Worth a Mention: Brandin Podziemski, Golden State Warriors; Dereck Lively II, Dallas Mavericks; Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets
Sixth Man of the Year: Malik Monk, Sacramento Kings
No bench player averages more fourth-quarter points or minutes than Malik Monk—a great way to differentiate his bench contributions from those belonging to the empty stat-padders who always try to go after this award.
Monk is not just a low-minute shooter who plays in “garbage time.” He is one of the Sacramento Kings’ best players and his team wants him on the floor during crunch time and crucial moments. Overall, Monk is putting up 15.1 points and 5.3 assists per game on a solid 44.8/36.7/81.1 shooting split.
Runner-Up: Norman Powell, Los Angeles Clippers
Powell has drained threes at a career-high 45.6% clip en route to a true shooting percentage that is well above the league average. He has also helped keep the Clippers in a tight race for first place in the Western Conference. Overall, Powell has averaged 13.7 points and 1 assist per outing on a 49.6/45.6/83.1 shooting split.
Worth a Mention: Tim Hardaway Jr., Dallas Mavericks; Bogdan Bogdanović, Atlanta Hawks; Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves
Defensive Player of the Year: Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves
Rudy Gobert is not the only reason why the Minnesota Timberwolves possess the league’s best defensive rating, but he is by far the biggest. The NBA’s second-best defense belongs to the Cleveland Cavaliers, who allow 110.4 points per 100 possessions, 2.5 more than Minnesota. That difference is bigger than the one separating Cleveland from the eighth-ranked Houston Rockets.
While much has been made of Gobert’s growth as a defender in space—a surprising late-career development—his dominance still comes from shutting down looks at the rim. Opponents attempt 5.9 percent fewer shots at point-blank range with Gobert in the game, the best figure of any big man with at least 1,500 minutes on the year.
Even when offensive players muster the nerve to shoot near the basket, the results are worse when Gibert is the primary defender than they are with anyone else swapped into his position. Gobert’s opponent field-goal percentage inside six feet (48.4 percent) is the lowest of any NBA regular.
After a year off, Gobert is back to being the most impactful defensive player in the league. He’s a great bet to pick up his fourth DPOY, which would put him in a tie with Ben Wallace and Dikembe Mutombo for the most in NBA history.
Runner-Up: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Wemby’s strong statistical case was already laid out in his ROY campaign section, but there is still more to say about what he does on defense. Wembenyama had more blocks individually than seven entire teams in February. Wemby also possesses the holy trinity of defensive skills: quick feet, long arms, and a relentless motor. Even if he doesn’t win this season, in the long run, he could challenge the aforementioned historical greats for most DPOYs of all time.
Worth a Mention: Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers; Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat; Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
Most Improved Player: Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors
The Most Improved Player award often lands with someone who added more minutes and touches, but not necessarily new skills, to his game, making it a strange award to judge. Scottie Barnes has been showcasing his “improvement” by becoming a credible three-point threat after beginning his NBA career as a jump-shooting liability for his first two seasons. Barnes takes about two more long-range shots per game than last season and hits them at a 34.6% clip, which is a huge improvement over his 28.1% mark from the previous season.
Barnes was selected to the All-Star team for the first time this season (as a replacement player) and is now clearly established as the Toronto Raptors’ franchise cornerstone. Barnes distributes the ball more as well, as well as getting to the foul line with increased frequency, and posting a better true shooting percentage with his increased usage rate. The Toronto star has also been more accurate from mid-range and from the charity stripe than he was last season. He is on pace for two-way superstardom thanks to legitimate gains across multiple areas and his incredible size for defense as well.
Runner-Up: Coby White, Chicago Bulls
The 24-year-old has seen a career-high 36.3 minutes of action per game, however, his statistical increases are not just tied to his playing time. White was more of a combo guard earlier in his career, but his assist rate spiked from 16.3% last year to 21.5% this season, suggesting he’s closer to a true point guard than many thought. White has also reached the foul line more frequently than ever and has increased his true shooting percentage to a career-best 58.6%. White’s emergence has presented a bright sport amid an otherwise dark year for the Bulls.
Worth a Mention: Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers; Alperen Şengün, Houston Rockets; Jonathan Kuminga, Golden State Warriors
Clutch Player: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
Though the Warriors just lost by more than 50 points to the Boston Celtics, Stephen Curry still deserves his spot as the Clutch Player front-runner here because his scoring in close-and-late situations has been remarkable. No other player else comes close to his 165 clutch points.
Curry has shot 50.5% from the field and 47.5% from deep in clutch situations. His 28 made threes in crunch time is more than the next two most prolific late-game sharpshooters––Buddy Hield with 11 and Derrick White with 10—combined. Seeing as almost no player gets more defensive attention than Curry when games are close, it’s hard to fathom how he manages to put up and then make so many deep shots. He is also 36-of-37 from the foul line (94.6 percent) in the clutch. Truly astonishing stuff.
Runner-Up: DeMar DeRozan, Chicago Bulls
A former Trojan, DeRozan’s 114 clutch points do not come close to Curry’s total, but the Bulls are plus-52 in his 128 clutch minutes. Damian Lillard and DeRozan are the only players with at least 100 clutch points and a team plus-minus of at least plus-50, but DeRozan’s shooting splits of 51.5/50.0/85.1 crush Lillard’s 41.7/28.1/95.6, making him a deserving second-favorite.
Worth a Mention: Damian Lillard, Milwaukee Bucks; Coby White, Chicago Bulls; Derrick White, Boston Celtics
Coach of the Year: Mark Daigneault, Oklahoma City Thunder
Mark Daigneault may not want the distinction of winning Coach of the Year because of what the award tends to mean for postseason success. Gregg Popovich (in both 2003 and 2014) is the only coach to win a championship and COY in the same season this century.
OKC is the second-youngest team in the league––led by MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at age 25 but otherwise driven by even younger players in their early 20s, which is not typically a title contender’s age profile. Daigneault has his team of younglings playing exceptionally hard while also operating with a level of organization and precision you do not normally see from so many guys still on their rookie contracts.
The Thunder play small and fast, driving and kicking more frequently than any other team, and still allow the league’s lowest field-goal percentage at the rim. The team owes much of the latter aspect to Chet Holmgren, but the rookie’s effectiveness in such a critical defensive role also comes in part from Daigneault’s scheming.
Oklahoma City doesn’t have vets to settle things down in high-pressure situations and operate as coaches on the floor. Kenrich Williams, 29, is the only player over 25 averaging more than 14 minutes per game. We have to credit Daigneault for the tactics and leadership he’s displayed that have the Thunder looking like the best team in the West, putting them several years ahead of a typical rebuilding schedule.
Runner-Up: Chris Finch, Minnesota Timberwolves
The reasons Chris Finch sits behind Daigneault on this list are that he has a more experienced roster than OKC and a suspect offense that can look downright aimless at the worst times.
Minnesota is just 16th in offensive efficiency (Oklahoma City is third), which is hard to understand when they have a veteran point guard in Mike Conley, a rising superstar in Anthony Edwards and perhaps the most prolific stretch big the league has ever seen in Karl-Anthony Towns. The Wolves’ defense is elite, but a middling offensive rating has to count as an underachievement. That small demerit matters in a close race.
Worth a Mention: Tyronn Lue, Los Angeles Clippers; Joe Mazzulla, Boston Celtics; JB Bickerstaff, Cleveland Cavaliers
Executive of the Year: Brad Stevens, Boston Celtics
Following appearances in three of the last four Eastern Conference Finals, Boston Celtics president of basketball operations Brad Stevens could have taken the easy way out and done almost nothing in the 2023 offseason. Instead, he made some hard choices. Though it now looks like an absolute heist, the deal Stevens struck to send Marcus Smart to the Memphis Grizzlies in a three-team trade that netted Kristaps Porzingis and two first-round picks was no sure thing at the time. Porzingis was coming off what seemed like an outlier year with the Washington Wizards and his durability was a real concern. Losing Smart, an integral presence within the franchise, felt like amputating a limb. Later in the offseason, Stevens then dealt reigning Sixth Man of the Year Malcolm Brogdon and defensive dynamo Robert Williams III in a package for Jrue Holiday.
Including the sign-and-trade that landed Grant Williams in Dallas, Stevens turned four rotation pieces into two. But with Porzingis fitting in perfectly and Holiday bringing everything Smart did and more, Boston has been the league’s best team by a mile through about three-quarters of the campaign.
Nothing is tougher in the NBA than leaping very good to great, and the moves Stevens made seem to have achieved that. The Celtics will ultimately be judged on their success or failure in the playoffs, but all the indicators to this point in the season suggest they’re in pole position for their first ring in 16 years.
Runner-Up: Leon Rose, New York Knicks
Donte DiVincenzo was one of the best offseason values at four years and $50 million, the Josh Hart extension made too much sense and the decision to move Obi Toppin for two future second-rounders was the type of shrewd admission on a draft miss that the Knicks never used to make.
Leon Rose wouldn’t warrant a spot in the EOY conversation had he stopped there, but fortunately for the Knicks, he was far from finished. Deals to bring in OG Anunoby, Bojan Bogdanović and Alec Burks filled out the rotation and balanced the roster, even though Anunoby has suffered from a knee injury recently.
That Rose managed to substantially improve the roster without dipping deeply into the franchise’s trove of future first-round picks only adds to his case. If the Knicks intend to go star hunting this summer or next, they still have more than enough draft capital to target the biggest game.
Worth a Mention: Mike Dunleavy Jr., Golden State Warriors; Daryl Morey, Philadelphia 76ers; Rafael Stone, Houston Rockets