Preview: USC women’s basketball’s Pac-12 tournament outlook

The regular season for USC women’s basketball went as well as anyone could have expected — if not better.

Freshman guard JuJu Watkins, the nation’s top recruit, instantly solidified herself as one of the sport’s elite players and currently stands as the No. 2 scorer in the nation. USC’s trio of Ivy League graduate transfers has been a legitimate supporting cast that complements Watkins seamlessly.

In just her third year of a rebuild effectively from scratch, head coach Lindsay Gottlieb has already established not only a contender in the country’s deepest conference, but also a threat to make noise on the national stage of the NCAA tournament. Starting the season ranked No. 21 in the AP poll and picked to finish sixth in the Pac-12 in both the coaches and media polls, the Trojans finished the regular season with a 23-5 record, a second-place finish in the conference and No. 5 spot in the AP Top 25.

Not only have outside expectations changed for what USC can do in March, but goals within the walls of Galen Center have gradually ascended as this squad keeps winning games. Even Gottlieb admits that she might have underestimated her team’s potential when the season started.

“We’ve shown throughout the year that we can beat anyone,” Gottlieb said. “Going as far as we can until someone else stops us maybe is a little further than what we knew it could be.”

USC’s resume backs up Gottlieb’s point. Granted, undefeated South Carolina has had another ridiculous season, but the Trojans have wins over what now stand as the other three No. 1 seeds in many bracket projections — Ohio State, UCLA and Stanford. Gottlieb also noted the benefit of playing in a rigorous conference to prepare her team for this phase of the year. USC faced the sixth-toughest strength of schedule according to NET rankings and compiled a 10-4 record against Quadrant 1 opponents, a mark that rivals any team that isn’t those aforementioned Gamecocks.

Looking ahead at what awaits the Trojans in the Pac-12 tournament this week, that slate of opponents isn’t getting any more forgiving in March. A first-round bye certainly doesn’t hurt, and a No. 2 seed helps to avoid one of the conference’s five other ranked squads in Thursday’s quarterfinals.

Even then, the Trojans will still be tasked with defeating an underrated opponent that has already given them issues this season. With its feisty defense, No. 10 seed Washington beat USC in Los Angeles in late January; they’ve also held two ranked teams, Oregon State and Utah, to 51 and 47 points respectively in the last two weeks. On the other side, the Huskies’ first-round opponent — No. 7 seed Arizona — just took USC to double overtime last weekend. There simply isn’t anywhere for anyone to hide in the Pac-12 gauntlet.

If the Trojans can avoid a trap spot on Thursday, they will likely play the winner of No. 6 Utah and No. 3 UCLA. The Utes have probably given USC the most trouble out of any opponent this season, claiming both head-to-head matchups so far. So, perhaps the Bruins would be more desirable from a matchup standpoint, as the Trojans at least split their regular-season contests with their crosstown rivals. And from a storyline perspective, who wouldn’t want to see a deciding third game for all the bragging rights?

A win in the semifinals would put USC in Sunday’s championship game after a day off. Top-seeded Stanford is the team most likely to come out of the upper half of the bracket, but  No. 4 seed Oregon State and No. 5 seed Colorado are both legitimate threats to upend the Cardinal. You can’t even overlook ninth-seeded Washington State, who won last year’s tournament as a No. 7 seed, as a potential spoiler.

Still, Stanford — led by newly crowned Pac-12 Player and Defensive Player of the Year Cameron Brink — won the conference regular season title for a reason. USC needed every bit of Watkins’ 51-point masterclass to beat the Cardinal in Palo Alto, and Stanford has just one other loss this season in games Brink has finished. It’s hard to believe that the winningest coach in college basketball history wouldn’t have a more stout gameplan to limit Watkins if a Stanford-USC rematch were to occur in the title game.

In the meantime, the Trojans still have to get there in the first place. After bowing out in the first rounds of both the Pac-12 and NCAA tournaments last season, Gottlieb is getting her squad ready for the most exciting month in perhaps all of sports.

“This time of year, the sort of secret sauce is feeling the joy of March basketball, feeling the joy of coming to be with each other every day, playing loose, and, at the same time, understanding it’s one and done,” Gottlieb said. “You have to have an urgency, but not having the urgency stress you out — it’s a little bit of both.”

March is arriving at a good time for a Trojan team that has won nine of its last 10 games. Watkins obviously grabs headlines — as you’d expect for someone averaging nearly 28 points per game — but USC is proving that it’s more than just its star freshman.

That Ivy League grad transfer trio has been able to carry the load at times; look no further than Saturday’s double overtime win at Arizona after Watkins fouled out with under two minutes to go in the fourth quarter. Guard Kayla Padilla hit the game-tying three at the end of regulation, then nailed a go-ahead three in overtime, then drilled another triple to take the lead in the second extra period.

Forward Kaitlyn Davis grabbed a pair of pivotal offensive boards that set up Padilla’s triple in the final seconds of the fourth quarter, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to her impact in that contest.

Finally, guard McKenzie Forbes is a reliable creator — both for herself and her teammates — when Watkins isn’t on the floor. She put that on display with assists on three consecutive possessions in response to Watkins fouling out.

“I think all of us, but Kaitlyn and Kayla especially, have done a great job of adapting to what their role may be in a given game,” Forbes said, pointing out that their roles have changed since being more primary scoring threats at their previous schools. Both Davis and Padilla are taking a fraction of the shots they had in past years, but, as a result, their scoring efficiencies have risen. Not only that, they’ve been more impactful in other areas, such as offensive rebounding for Davis and defensive intensity for Padilla.

The last, but not least, member of the USC starting five is junior forward Rayah Marshall, who might be hitting her stride at the right time to be an X-factor in Las Vegas. Marshall was inconsistent offensively at the start of Pac-12 play, but she closed the regular season in great form. She’s been as efficient as ever over the past month, highlighted by 41 points over the two-game Arizona trip.

The key? Bringing that dawg out, of course.

“I wasn’t being as consistent for my team … when I do well, our team does well,” Marshall said, adding that a conversation with an assistant coach helped fuel her big weekend. “I’ve been rebounding better — so it’s just like, what can I bring to the table?”

Marshall’s offensive resurgence, paired with her steady defensive presence in the paint, gives USC a really complete lineup on both ends of the floor. The Trojans will need that in order to run the table in Vegas this week.

The Trojans’ first Pac-12 tournament matchup will be on Thursday at 6 p.m. from the MGM Grand Garden Arena against the winner of Washington and Arizona in the opening round.