Tape Talk: Quinyon Mitchell: The Rocket flying up draft boards

Non-Power 5 players are typically not selected in the first round of the NFL draft–since 2014, only 24 out of 318 first-round selections have been G5 or FCS athletes, equating to around 7.5%. Shrink that range down to the top 20 and the number drops to 7%.

Becoming a high draft pick from a non-Power 5 school is extremely difficult. Yet, there’s a Mid-Atlantic Conference defensive back who appears to have defied the odds and is currently projected to be one of the first prospects to walk up the draft podium in late April: University of Toledo cornerback Quinyon Mitchell, a two-time second-team All-America selection who cemented himself as one of the most feared defensive backs in college football and is quickly rising in draft boards across the country.

Mitchell has blown up throughout the draft season with a stellar performance during Senior Bowl week and significant hype from notable draft analysts like Mel Kiper, Daniel Jeremiah, and Dane Brugler, who all have him as a top 20 player in the draft. But should an NFL team be comfortable taking a corner that early who only played a ranked opponent twice during his college career? Or does Mitchell’s skillset transcend the level of competition and makes him worthy of a top selection? We’re here to break it all down in this week’s edition of Tape Talk, where we’ll go over Mitchell’s strengths and weaknesses, scheme fit and his best possible landing spots in the league.

When researching Mitchell’s background, the first thing that stands out is how quickly he burst onto the scene at Toledo and the tremendous growth he underwent during his four years with the program. Graduating high school during the COVID-19 pandemic in the spring of 2020, Mitchell wasn’t allowed to enroll at Toledo until the fall, yet still played in all six of Toledo’s games during the shortened season and started every one of the Rockets’ outings in 2021, despite having only one spring football season and two fall camps under his belt.

And while he showed promise as a freshman and sophomore, Mitchell cemented himself as an elite corner during his upperclassman years, finishing his junior and senior seasons as top two among all college corners in pass break-ups (PBUs) and earning two back-to-back first-team All-MAC and second-team All-American selections, proving he belongs not only among the best players in the MAC but all of college football.

Mitchell won his matchups week after week through tremendous instincts and short-area quickness, which perfectly served Toledo’s defensive identity; the Rockets played a predominantly single-high heavy scheme with some usage of Cover 4, meaning Mitchell was often manned up, particularly in off alignments, to opposing teams’ number one receiver and free to quickly read and blow up plays in front of him with his high-level processing and quickness.

The perfect marriage of Toledo’s scheme with Mitchell’s abilities is truly a joy to study; watch this compilation of Mitchell blowing up underneath-intermediate plays from his oft-deployed off alignment, for example. Note the phenomenal patience and processing with which Mitchell keys receivers’ hips, not wasting any movement in his footwork while backpedaling or being fooled by head or shoulder fakes, before exploding toward his targets with exceptional plant and drive.

Mitchell also did a good job on deeper routes from his off-man alignment, where he showed the very good foot speed and lateral agility to stay on top of good athletes, with solid timing when flipping his hips and long speed to trail good athletes on deeper routes. He was especially lockdown on field-stretching routes in or near the red zone, where he showed good positional awareness and physical toughness to nudge receivers toward the sideline, shrinking the throwing window.

Mitchell’s instincts and short-area quickness also allow him to thrive in zone coverage. Similar to his ability in man to read receivers’ hips and react in a split second, Mitchell also displays the processing to read the quarterback’s eyes and body language when dropping to his zone to anticipate throws, particularly when moving downfield, with his special transition quickness to blow up shorter and intermediate routes.

Altogether, Mitchell’s phenomenal processing skills and quickness are what make him such a terrifying coverage player. Yet, it’s his good ball skills in addition to this, particularly with his back to the quarterback, that makes him a true weapon in coverage. When closing in downfield on receivers from his off alignments or fighting field stretching routes on all levels of the field, Mitchell showcases an almost Spider-Sense-like instinct to swat away incoming balls or obstruct the catch point for receivers.

Watch him on this crucial second-quarter red zone play in Toledo’s Week 8 matchup against Miami of Ohio, for example. Miami wide receiver Joe Wilkins Jr. has Mitchell

beat on the shallow crosser, yet Mitchell shows phenomenal extension, swat timing and hand placement to fight for the football at the catch point, leading to a crucial PBU, one of the whopping 45 he amassed during his career with the Rockets.

Plays like these are what have scouts, general managers and other high-level personnel executives excited when watching Mitchell’s film. And while I don’t think Mitchell’s ball skills are as elite as some high-level analysts are saying (stemming from his lack of play strength to force incompletions after the catch against and concentration issues leading to dropped interceptions), Mitchell’s ball-hawk instincts and inspiring competitiveness at the point of attack certainly flash on tape.

At his best, Mitchell is a high-level coverage corner, particularly in off-man or zone assignments, due to his instincts, short area quickness, and impressive ball skills. Yet, there are enough concerns that could make NFL decision-makers weary of making him an early-first-round pick.

First—and this is less of a negative and more of a question mark—Mitchell’s lack of experience and dominance from press alignments should definitely raise some eyebrows. As touched upon earlier, Mitchell primarily operated from off alignments at Toledo, which played perfectly to his excellent vision, anticipation and plant-and-drive ability, yet also prevented him from often being pressed up against number one receivers. Thus, while there are some flashes of Mitchell holding up in press (such as the Miami of Ohio clip referenced earlier), they are few and far between, which is particularly concerning since Mitchell played lesser competition in the MAC.

It is worth mentioning that Mitchell had a very impressive showing from press alignments in the one-versus-one drills at this year’s Senior Bowl, winning reps consistently against some of the best receivers in the class, yet just because Mitchell excelled in the technique for a few days in Mobile in a practice-like, isolated environment against college-level competition does not mean he will do so as easily in the league. And while, best case scenario, Mitchell ends up being solid or better as a press defender in the league, right now, he’s not proven enough off his college tape to consider it a strength.

Moving on to more prevailing cons, I have concerns about how Mitchell’s ability in run support and open-field tackling projects to the NFL level due to his average frame (Mitchell is 195 pounds but plays in a slim, non-muscular frame), below-average angle processing when moving diagonally, and adequate play strength when tackling bigger skill players.

Mitchell’s deficiencies as a run defender are not due to a lack of effort; he shows good run/pass recognition and competitiveness to drive for outside leverage on outside runs or jet sweeps, with good quickness to force the play back inside to his help defenders. With that said, his “stack-shed” ability (referring to a defender’s ability to disengage from a block by extending their arms and then “shedding” the defender) is below average at best, preventing him from making a play on the ball when blocked by tight ends and receivers.

As an open field tackler, he does a good job of breaking down and wrapping defenders when moving vertically, yet shows adequate angle processing to take the right angle when approaching defenders at an angle, which, alongside adequate play strength against bigger skill players, leads to plenty of missed tackles, like on this play against Miami of Ohio in the MAC championship where he takes a poor angle on an outside zone run, allowing the running back to rush for ten more yards than he should have.

With all this in mind, Mitchell would best serve a team that majors in single high coverages, primarily utilizing off and some bail technique due to his tremendous instincts and short-area quickness to read and react to plays in front of him.

Due to his lack of experience in press, I would not trust him to excel in a team that runs press-man at a high rate, and would also not be comfortable with him being a number one corner off the jump; number one corners are typically asked to press opponents’ best receiving weapons, and Mitchell is simply too unproven at the skill right now to project him to do it at a high level. I would also be wary of deploying him as a cloud corner in Cover 2 or Cover 6 alignments or as a quarters defender in Cover 4, as he’ll have an increased run-support responsibility in those coverages and projects to struggle.

Moving on to team fits (while I would not pick him this high), the Indianapolis Colts at the 15th pick make a ton of sense; the team is in dire need of playmakers on the defensive side of the football, and defensive coordinator Gus Bradley is renowned for his high usage of single-high-centric schemes, particularly Cover 3, which would not have Mitchell pressed on most snaps and play to his strengths.

The Pittsburgh Steelers at 20 are also a good fit with an already established up-and-coming corner in Joey Porter Jr., who would complement Mitchell’s skillset well (Porter Jr. is renowned for his ability in press), and a defensive mastermind in Mike Tomlin, who runs high amounts of man-coverage and could assuredly develop Mitchell into a star just like he’s done with Porter Jr., Minkah Fitzpatrick and myriad other defensive backs.

Finally, the Detroit Lions at 29 could also be an ideal landing spot with an aggressive, man-coverage heavy defensive coordinator in Aaron Glenn, who’s in dire need of talent in the secondary to run his scheme. In 2023, the Lions ranked third to last in net yards per attempt allowed through the air (7.1).  Adding Mitchell would go a long way into boosting that secondary and cementing a good young core with nickel/safety Brian Branch coming off a stellar rookie season.