On Feb. 17, the NCAA tournament selection committee released its eighth annual “in-season bracket,” which is a ranked list of the committee’s top 16 teams. Since the in-season bracket began, only one national champion (Connecticut in 2023) did not appear in the committee’s top 16, which means 2024′s champion will likely be one of these 16 programs. With a few weeks remaining until the real Selection Sunday, let’s take a look at the committee’s list, both ranked and tiered by how likely they are to be the last team standing.
Tier 4: Don’t count on it
These teams do not meet most of the criteria that past champions have met. Winning it all is technically possible for them, but it would be truly surprising.
No. 16: Wisconsin Badgers
On the same afternoon that Wisconsin was announced as the committee’s 16th-ranked team, they lost to an Iowa Hawkeyes team that entered the day with an 0-4 record against ranked opponents and a sub-.500 record in conference play. If the committee waited a few more hours to release their bracket, it’s unlikely that Wisconsin would have made the cut. Granted, the Badgers are battle tested. Per KenPom, Wisconsin has played the fifth-toughest schedule in all of college basketball. However, they have lost many of those battles. They’ve lost five of their last seven games and seem to be losing any chance of finishing the season strongly. Don’t expect Wisconsin to string together six straight wins in March.
No. 15: Baylor Bears
Since winning the national title in 2021, Baylor has not returned to the Sweet 16, despite earning a top-three seed in each of the last two seasons. The Bears sport a top 10 offense in the country, but their leading scorer, Ja’Kobe Walter, is a true freshman guard with zero March Madness experience. Additionally, their defense ranks well outside of the top 50. Opponents make over half of their 2-pointers against Baylor, which is not a recipe for postseason success. Historically, national championship teams have three things: veteran leadership, defense and size. Considering that Baylor’s tallest upperclassman contributor is a 6-foot-7 forward in Jalen Bridges, it looks like the Bears are missing all three.
No. 14: Iowa State Cyclones
Against unranked opponents, Iowa State has a 19-1 record this season and the Cyclones are a perfect 16-0 at home. That’s impressive, but the NCAA Tournament is not at Iowa State’s James H. Hilton Coliseum and the Cyclones will have to beat top-25 caliber teams en route to a national title. Away from home, Iowa State is just 5-6, and their record against ranked teams is a paltry 3-6. One of their top scorers is a freshman guard and this is the team’s first season with a new offensive system that is much faster than in any other year during T.J. Otzelberger’s tenure as head coach. They may contend in the near future, but this won’t be the Cyclones’ year.
Tier 3: It could happen
These teams meet more of the criteria of past champions, but I am concerned about their play styles or some of this season’s results.
No. 13: Houston Cougars
Here’s the toughest pick of the list. Houston ranks first in KenPom’s efficiency metric (including the top-ranked defense), and ESPN’s Basketball Power Index currently estimates the Cougars’ title chances at 32.7%. The next best team is at 12.5%. They have essentially secured a 1-seed, and they will be one of the most popular title picks based on advanced analytics. Houston checks many of the boxes that historically indicate championship-level teams and a title is realistically possible. However, Houston has checked the same boxes for the last three seasons with no title to show for it. Each of those three iterations of Cougars possessed a top 10 KenPom defense. Interestingly, those defensive juggernauts were each eliminated by a team ranking in the top 10 offenses, also per KenPom. Will the Cougars be lucky enough to draw six straight tournament games that do not include an elite offense? Those chances are low. After Selection Sunday, pay close attention to Houston’s pathway to the title game and take note of the teams on their side of the bracket who can score at an elite level.
No. 12: Marquette Golden Eagles
Last season, Marquette shocked the college basketball world by becoming the first team to win both the Big East regular season title and conference tournament since the Villanova Wildcats in 2019. The committee granted the Golden Eagles a 2-seed, but Marquette flamed out in the round of 32 against the Michigan State Spartans. This season, Marquette is no longer atop the Big East standings, and they have generally taken a slight step back. Olivier-Maxence Prosper declared for the NBA draft instead of coming back for his senior season and his absence has been felt on the offensive side of the ball. It is rare for a team that has regressed since its previous season to win a title.
No. 11: Kansas Jayhawks
Much like Iowa State, Kansas looks like a different team away from home. The Jayhawks are 5-6 outside of Allen Fieldhouse and they are simply less dependable compared to the other elite teams. Although they possess wins against impressive teams on this list like Houston and Iowa State, Kansas has also lost to weak Big 12 opponents, such as West Virginia and UCF. On Tuesday night, Kansas lost to BYU at home and about two weeks ago, Texas Tech blew out the Jayhawks by 29 points. On a year by year basis, Kansas is consistently elite. However, their results this season have been unpredictable enough that it’s hard to believe they will have six straight solid performances in the tournament.
No. 10: Connecticut Huskies
The Huskies are the defending champions, and they currently have the shortest odds of winning this season’s title, according to the major sportsbooks. So, why do I have them ranked tenth? The last team to win back-to-back titles was the 2007 Florida Gators, who had six future NBA players on their roster. Unless the Huskies just picked up Joakim Noah from the transfer portal, their talents don’t compare to that Florida squad. Winning two years in a row is rare for a reason.
Tier 2: Strong contenders
Any of these teams could feasibly find themselves cutting down the nets in March.
No. 9: San Diego State Aztecs
San Diego State proved that they were built for the postseason when they made it all the way to the title game last season. Despite being a mid-major school, the Aztecs do not play down to weaker competition. In fact, the last time San Diego State lost a game to an opponent outside of Quadrant 1 was on Jan. 14 to New Mexico… in 2023! San Diego State is 14-0 in Quadrants 2 through 4 this year and their 5-7 record in Quad 1 is more than respectable for a non-Power 6 team. The Aztecs have a borderline top-10 defense, and if they draw the right opponents in the tournament, they are more than capable of another big run.
No. 8: Illinois Fighting Illini
According to KenPom, Illinois has the fourth-most efficient offense in the nation, and all three of their leading scorers are seniors, including Terrence Shannon, a 6-foot-6 guard who scores 22 points per game. Illinois had a weak loss to Penn State last Wednesday and has yet to secure a big, signature win, but they have two opportunities next week: Wisconsin on the road and Purdue at home. If Illinois wins one of those games and has a strong showing in the Big Ten Tournament, they will be a popular Final Four pick. Not only do they have an experienced star guard, but they could have positive momentum headed into the postseason and a lot to prove.
No. 7: Arizona Wildcats
The last time a team from the West Coast won a national title was Arizona in 1997. Can they do it again 27 years later? Last season as a 2-seed, the Wildcats flamed out in the first round in a shocking upset to Princeton, and this year’s squad already has as many regular season losses as last season. However, they meet all the criteria for a championship-caliber team. For one, they are arguably the most experienced team in the country. Four of their five starters are seniors, including star transfer Caleb Love, who led North Carolina to the national championship game two seasons ago. Additionally, they have started the same five-player lineup in all 27 games so far this season, so chemistry is not a problem. If Arizona can advance through the first round and rid themselves of their easy-upset reputation, the sky’s the limit.
No. 6: Auburn Tigers
Against Auburn, opponents shoot 38.4% from the field and 29.6% from three. In layman’s terms, offenses forget how to make shots against the Tigers. Auburn has proved itself as the toughest team in the country by destroying SEC teams all season long. The team beat South Carolina by 40, Ole Miss by 23, Alabama by 18,and LSU by 15. In fact, all of their 21 wins have been by double digits. The Tigers’ closest win was an eleven-point victory against Texas A&M in which Auburn held the lead for the last eight minutes. They’ve lost six games, but all were against Quad 1 opponents. After their matchup against Tennessee this Wednesday, we’ll know more about how Auburn plays against the upper echelon.
No. 5: Purdue Boilermakers
It’s easy to clown on Purdue after how many disappointing tournament exits the program has suffered recently, but the Boilermakers have played as well as anyone this season. They’re 25-3, have three different win streaks of six games (the number of rounds in the tournament) and are led by the best player in college basketball: Zach Edey. KenPom ranks their offense as second-best in the country, in large part due to Edey’s easy 23 points per game, but the Boilermakers’ supporting cast has also stepped up. As a team, Purdue shoots north of 40% from three, which will be crucial to their success in the tournament. An off shooting night would derail Purdue, and a team from the Big 10 hasn’t won a title in over 20 years, but purely based on this season’s results, Purdue has as good a chance as anyone.
Tier 1: My final four
Given an average draw in the NCAA Tournament, the following teams would be my picks for the Final Four.
No. 4: Duke Blue Devils
Give or take a few unspecial seasons, it feels like Duke is always in the mix for a national title and this year is no different. Duke lost this past Saturday to Wake Forest, but they have generally been great against good and bad teams alike. In Quadrant 1, Duke is 6-3, including wins against Baylor and Michigan State away from home. The Blue Devils rank 12th in three-point percentage on offense while also allowing opponents to make less than a third of their threes. The game has evolved to the point of teams living and dying by the three and Duke will have the advantage beyond the arc on both sides of the ball against most teams. Additionally, the Blue Devils have only lost three games on the road and seem to have the composure that will allow them to thrive in hectic environments in March.
No. 3: North Carolina Tar Heels
Could we see a third Duke-UNC matchup this season in the Final Four? Both teams are leagues above the rest of the ACC and seem like they have found their footing under their new generation of head coaches. Senior guard RJ Davis leads the Tar Heels’ offense with more than 20 points per game, while senior forward Armando Bacot leads a top ten defense in the country. They’re experienced, big and have already challenged themselves with one of the hardest schedules in the country. Out of all the “Blue Bloods,” Duke and North Carolina are the best this season and both are in prime position to cut down the nets.
No. 2: Alabama Crimson Tide
Last season, Alabama was the number one overall seed after eventual No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 draft Brandon Miller’s dominant regular season. However, in March, Miller and the Crimson Tide fell apart. San Diego State knocked them out in the Sweet 16, while Miller scored only nine points and made three of his 19 shot attempts. Without experience, a team is bound to fall apart, and Miller was a freshman one-and-done NBA prospect. This year, Alabama’s 20 point-per-game scorer, Mark Sears, is a senior who has started 104 games in his collegiate career. As a team, Alabama has one of the most efficient offenses in the country, per KenPom. They have the talent and they have the experience, too.
No. 1: Tennessee Volunteers
If every team was guaranteed an equally difficult path in the NCAA Tournament, the Tennessee Volunteers would be my pick to win it all. Dalton Knecht, the Volunteers’ senior guard, averages 20 points per game and is the most versatile scorer in the country. In the postseason, given that each team must face a variety of different defensive coverages, Tennessee has the tools to have success against all of them. Knecht is elite in isolation, can score at all three levels and moves without the ball better than anyone. As a team, Tennessee has built a 16-1 record outside of Quadrant 1, and has wins against Alabama, Kentucky, and Wisconsin. Based on their strong performances away from home and against tougher opponents, the Volunteers appear to have the personnel to survive against every type of team. It will depend on their matchups, which we won’t know until Selection Sunday, but Tennessee currently has the best chance to win the NCAA Tournament this season.