Tape Talk: Brian Thomas Jr, the Tiger we should be talking about

Tape Talk is a column by Felipe Londoño, Talk of Troy’s Head NFL Draft Scout, providing analysis and film review on a new draft prospect each week.

The NFL season is now over, but the football calendar is never empty. As the sun sets on regular and postseason play, it rises on the NFL draft, with it finally being time to talk about the collegiate superstars who could be lighting it up on Sundays this fall.

We’ve already heard much about the bigger names, such as receivers like Ohio State phenom Marvin Harrison Jr., Washington weapon and CFP finalist Rome Odunze, and LSU speedster Malik Nabers, yet there’s another name among that group who was gone under the radar: Brian Thomas Jr, another LSU Tiger who, with his rare blend of size and athleticism could have a fast rise on draft boards before and earn an early first-round selection come the big event.

Tape Talk is back! We’ll be going over top prospects in the NFL draft over the coming months, and in this week’s edition, we’re talking Brian Thomas Jr.

I must admit, I first stumbled upon Thomas studying LSU tape for Malik Nabers, a phenomenal prospect in his own right who will likely also go early in this year’s draft. I sat down and turned on the Florida State versus LSU opener, yet as I watched Nabers play after play, I noticed my attention repeatedly drifting to Thomas, who, at six-foot-four and 205 pounds, looked like an NFL X receiver who decided to return to school and play college ball.

Then one play I focused solely on him: a garbage time play in the fourth quarter where running a vertical, he found a soft spot in zone coverage down the left sideline and, in the middle of two defenders closing in on him, sunk his weight like an All-Pro running back and wove through them with a tremendous elusiveness, then exploding out of his break and turning on the jets for a house call. That was the end of my Nabers evaluation, and I turned my focus over to Brian Thomas Jr.

The blend of athleticism and size that you just saw on that play makes sense when you delve into Thomas’ background; a two-sport standout at Walker High School in Louisiana, he excelled both as a wide receiver and power forward and turned down Division One basketball opportunities to play football at LSU. Here he is going up for the dunk in a regular season match-up against Belaire.

Thomas was as productive on the gridiron as he was on the hardcourt throughout high school, finishing with over 1250 yards and 17 touchdowns in his last full football season in 2019, and it was that blend of production and athleticism that got the LSU coaches so intrigued they featured him regularly during his first season in Baton Rouge. He started nine games as a freshman in 2021, finishing with a respectable 359 yards and two touchdowns on 28 receptions.

Thomas failed to build on his impressive freshman campaign in 2022, posting similar numbers to the year before, yet burst onto the season this past fall in LSU’s box score offense, finishing with 1177 yards and a whopping 17 touchdowns on 68 receptions.

As we saw in the first clip, the first thing that catches your eye when you study Thomas is his field-stretching ability due to his rare athleticism for his size. With very good burst, foot quickness, and long speed, he’s a threat to stack corners both in press and off on any given play.

Watch this compilation of just his deep touchdowns, for example, where he shows foot quickness and lateral agility in his releases and tremendous long speed to dominate corners on vertical routes.

He shows good ball skills, too, able to repeatedly adjust to the football on inaccurate balls and win with tremendous body control and play strength to moss corners on contested catches downfield.

Watch him on this crucial fourth-quarter play versus Texas A&M, where he shows the speed to stack a corner from an off-alignment, and then displays the body control and ball tracking to contort himself for the catch, finishing with the dexterity to extend and come down with the touchdown to give the Tigers the lead.

In addition to stretching the field, Thomas is also a tremendous YAC threat at the underneath level, showing good elusiveness and body control in the open field for his size to evade defenders.

Let’s again return to the fourth quarter of the Texas A&M game. Watch him sink his weight and elude an incoming linebacker with very good body control and lateral agility, and then display the urgency and burst to turn upfield and get vertical for the extra seven yards. You’d expect a play like this from someone like Zay Flowers, yet this is a 6-foot-4 outside receiver doing it!

Thomas isn’t just all athleticism, though; he also shows very good football IQ and awareness when running routes against zone coverage. Watch him on this second-quarter play in the ReliaQuest bowl against Wisconsin, for example.

The Badgers show a cover two-man look early pre-snap before rotating a safety down to the box, indicating cover-one. Yet post-snap, they change the coverage again, with the nickel defender to the strong side bailing to cover his deep half and the safety now dropping deep to cover his vacated zone, revealing an inverted cover-two coverage.

Thomas easily processes these three shifts and, noticing the safety darting downfield to cover the nickel’s zone, adjusts his route toward the middle of the field to take advantage of the empty space and get open for an 18-yard gain.

He also shows the instincts and awareness to help out his QB on broken plays, as seen in Week 8′s matchup against Army. Thomas runs a hitch against off-man coverage and quickly notices Jayden Daniels scrambling, so he adjusts the stem of his route upfield to get open. He then shows tremendous ball tracking and length to haul the ball in and then the rare burst and long speed to finish for the touchdown. To me, the play truly epitomizes everything that makes Brian Thomas Jr. special: rare athleticism, ball skills, and football instincts.

Thomas isn’t a perfect prospect, however, and there’s a reason why, as of right now, he’s the consensus fourth-best receiver in the class: his route running needs polishing, he struggles to beat physical, No.1 corners, and teams have to be comfortable with the fact that he was never the No.1 option in Baton Rouge, had only one stellar season, and his production this season was boosted by Heisman quarterback Jayden Daniels and Biletnikoff finalist Malik Nabers’ play.

Let me just say off the bat that I don’t think Thomas is a bad route runner. In fact, I think he’s a solid one, and projects to improve at the next level due to his football IQ and tremendous lower body flexibility and balance, which allows him to get low and cut well on routes and then maintain acceleration throughout his cuts.

However, he ran a very limited route tree in college, being limited to leveraging the underneath and deep areas of the field, and showed below-average creativity through his stems, rarely using position or jerk steps or stemming into leverage, which will be an issue at the next level where he won’t be able to beat corners primarily with his athleticism play in and play out.

Furthermore, he projects to struggle against physical, athletic corners that can trail him at the hip at the next level due to his somewhat average upper body strength. Watch him on these two plays during his Week 10 matchup against Alabama, which had a strong case for having the best DB room in college football this last season.

When pressed by long, physical corners with the athleticism to trail him, such as prospective first-rounder Kool-Aid McKinstrey and senior Trey Amos, Thomas struggled to separate, failing to shake them off with physicality.

Ultimately, this combination of adequate creativity in his routes and play strength when manned up by physical DBs is concerning, particularly if he’s drafted by a team expecting him to be the number one option.

And that leads us to our final concern, which is that, at LSU, Thomas was never relied upon to be the number one option. He caught passes from a Heisman winner, and was second to a receiver so good it changed the way defenses played LSU, both of which no doubt helped his production.

For one, defenses were so locked in on stopping Nabers they often pressed and doubled him on one side with their best defensive backs, leaving Thomas on the other with a favorable matchup. Teams also often played soft zone with two high coverage shells above it against LSU to account for Daniels’ vertical throwing prowess, giving Thomas a ton of room to work on underneath. This was primarily where he was asked to win in the LSU system, alongside his field-stretching duties.

This first-quarter play in the season opener against FSU is a prime example of how Thomas benefitted both from the gravity of both Nabers’ speed and Daniels’ deep throw. Watch how deep of a defense FSU runs, and how many defenders Nabers takes with him as he runs his vertical, allowing Thomas to run a shallow crosser virtually untouched.

Much of Thomas’ production was like this, where he’d take advantage of favorable matchups and soft coverages generated by Nabers and the threat of Daniels’ deep ball. This is why he likely won’t be one of the first receivers taken, and could even drop toward the end of the first round. As intriguing as his skillset is, he won’t be a No. 1 right away, as he needs to get stronger and polish his route running. He’ll more likely start his career as a high-end two, similar to DeVonta Smith or Tee Higgins.

When it comes to predicting where he will land come April, this is why I like him going to a team with an already established WR1 whom he can learn behind and then take over for in a few seasons if needed. With his size, speed, and ball skills, Thomas has all the traits to be a dominant first option down the line, but would be best served learning under a player who’s already there as he polishes his route running and gets stronger.

The Cincinnati Bengals at 18th overall are a great fit if the team parts ways with Tee Higgins; the franchise has a proven track record of developing wide receivers, and Thomas would be able to fit Higgins’ role perfectly while learning under Pro-Bowler and fellow LSU Tiger Ja’Marr Chase. Dallas at 24, Tampa Bay at 27, and Buffalo at 28 also make a ton of sense for the same reasons, particularly with the futures of receivers like Mike Evans and Stefon Diggs up in the air.

Overall, Thomas is an incredibly intriguing prospect who will likely go early if a team falls in love with his special athletic ability and upside. If he falls into a situation with stability and great coaching, don’t be surprised if he’s the best receiver from this draft class four to five years from now.