This week featured several matchups between top 10 teams, including another chapter in the iconic Duke-North Carolina rivalry in which the Tar Heels came out on top.
Wins against elite competition for North Carolina, the Tennessee Volunteers, and the Kansas Jayhawks point towards postseason potential, but the Tar Heels and Jayhawks each lost their following games against lesser opponents. How can we make sense to help our brackets in March?
North Carolina’s roller coaster week
The North Carolina Tar Heels and Duke Blue Devils share the best rivalry in sports.
Both are “blue bloods,” a title bestowed on college basketball’s historically great programs, and are guaranteed to play each other at least twice a year in the ACC. Last Saturday, they logged their first matchup this season and both entered the game ranked in the top 10.
The Tar Heels had lost three of their last five games against Duke in Dean E. Smith Center, and coming off of a disappointing loss to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, they needed a win to regain the momentum that gave them a 17-3 start to the season.
Fifth year senior big man Armando Bacot scored 12 first half points to power the Tar Heels to a double digit lead going into the locker room. This was Bacot’s 153rd start for the Tar Heels and 10th career game against Duke, so he understands the importance of beating the Blue Devils.
“Duke-Carolina is a crazy rivalry and we knew coming in we just had to be physical from the jump,” Bacot said after the game.
Bacot was the focal point of the Tar Heels’ physicality, finishing with his eighth career 25-point game and a career best against the Blue Devils in his last home game against them. Forward Harrison Ingram also played a huge role in the win, finishing with 21 points and five made threes. The Tar Heels finished shooting 37.5% from three to Duke’s 26.3%, another pivotal factor in Saturday’s 93-84 victory for Carolina.
The Tar Heels’ ability to win on the biggest regular season stage in college basketball is encouraging, especially considering the veteran presence on their team. In addition to Bacot, two other starters—RJ Davis and Cormac Ryan—are seniors, which gives the Tar Heels an upper hand under pressure.
However, against the Clemson Tigers on Tuesday night, North Carolina’s seniors were not composed. Bacot turned in another excellent performance with 24 points and 13 rebounds, but Davis and Ryan combined to shoot a disastrous 25% from the floor. Despite Carolina having home court advantage, the first half was all Tigers, including a 15-2 Clemson run to start the game.
In the second half, the Tar Heels fought back, even tying the game at 70 each with four minutes remaining. But they were no match for Clemson leading scorer PJ Hall, who sealed the game with four points in the game’s last four minutes to bring his total to 25 on the night. With true road wins against North Carolina, Florida State, Pittsburgh, and Alabama, the Tigers all but clinched an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.
North Carolina has been “in” for weeks now, but recent results have raised eyebrows regarding their consistency. Veteran leadership will help them in big games, but they are not immune to off-nights typical of less experienced squads.
The tale of two Kansas teams
Entering this week, the Kansas Jayhawks were a perfect 11-0 at home, with their last loss at Allen Fieldhouse coming against TCU on January 21, 2023, over a full year ago.
However, the Houston Cougars, who currently have the third-shortest odds to win the National Championship, came into town on Saturday, Feb. 3 to challenge the Jayhawks’ unblemished home record. Prior to the game, Kansas head coach Bill Self called Houston’s rebounding “probably the best in the country,” and said that Kansas “[has] to be exceptional on the glass.”
The Jayhawks outrebounded Houston 40-24 en route to a shocking 78-65 beat down. Per KenPom, Houston ranks first in defensive efficiency this season, but the Cougars had no answers for Kansas. The Jayhawks shot 68.9% from the floor and their 78 points were the most Houston has allowed in a game all season. On offense, Hunter Dickinson led the way for Kansas, who finished with 20 points, eight rebounds and four assists to help keep the Jayhawks’ historic home win streak alive.
On the road, Kansas has not been as impressive. The Jayhawks have only played six true road games this season, and they are 2-4 in those contests, including losses to unranked UCF, unranked West Virginia, and on Monday night, the unranked Kansas State Wildcats by a 75-70 score.
With just over 17 minutes left in the second half, the Jayhawks were up by eleven points, but the rest of the game was dominated by senior guard transfer Tylor Perry, who finished with a career high 26 points, including eight overtime points that sealed the game for the Wildcats. Additionally, Kansas failed to carry over their rebounding prowess from earlier in the week, as they were outrebounded by ten against Kansas State.
If Kansas struggles to win on the road, how can they be trusted during March Madness, where they won’t play a single home game? Early this season, Kansas played in tournaments at neutral sites and went just an alright 2-1 against ranked opponents.
Ultimately, their road losses should generate some concern, but the last time Kansas lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament was March 17, 2006. You must trust Bill Self in the postseason.
Tennessee’s offense overpowers Kentucky on the road
On Saturday,Feb. 3, the Tennessee Volunteers went into Rupp Arena to give the Kentucky Wildcats their third home loss of the season.
Surprisingly, this signature win didn’t require a big performance from the Volunteers’ leading scorer, Dalton Knecht. Purdue’s Zach Edey has locked in another Naismith Men’s College Player of the Year trophy, but many have argued that Knecht is the sport’s most valuable player due to his versatility and consistency on offense. This season, Knecht, a 6-foot-6 combo guard transfer from the University of Northern Colorado, has averaged 20.2 points per game while converting 48.1% of his shots.
However, against top-10 opponents, Knecht’s scoring production drops to 14.5 points per game on a much less desirable 33.3% shooting. Coming into Saturday’s contest, the Volunteers hadn’t played against a top-10 team since late November, so all eyes were on Knecht to see if his woes against the best teams in the country would continue. Interestingly, Knecht only scored 16 points on a disappointing 35.7% shooting mark, but unlike Tennessee’s other top 10 matchups, the Volunteers won the game. All five of Tennessee’s starters scored in double figures, with guard duo Josiah-Jordan James and Zakai Zeigler combining for 52 of Tennessee’s 103 points, the most Kentucky’s defense has allowed all season. Knecht then returned to form on Wednesday night versus LSU with a game high 27 points as the Volunteers won 88-68.
Tennessee’s road win against then-No. 10 Kentucky bodes well for the Volunteers’ chances in important late-season games, despite Knecht’s mediocre performance on the night. As long as they can survive a Knecht off night, they can beat any team in the country.