LOS ANGELES — The American League West has long featured intense division rivalries, rebuilds turning into dynasties, and perennial all stars. And in a post Shohei Ohtani world, the Angels’ potential to make the playoffs looks as precarious as ever.
In 2023, the AL West’s top three had a hotly contested playoff race, with the Mariners missing out. If the 2024 season is anything like the year prior, it’ll be must-watch baseball.
Houston Astros
2023 Record: 90-72
My 2024 Projection: 99-63
The Astros were the laughing stock of the AL West when they switched from the National League to the American League in 2013. However, with top draft picks from those losing seasons and key free agency signings, they’ve become a dynasty. They haven’t missed the playoffs since 2016 and won two World Series titles in 2017 and 2022, respectively.
Their success however, became the topic of endless controversy after their sign-stealing habits en route to the 2017 chip became public knowledge. The 2022 title, however, proves their success has not been a fluke post-scandal.
In 2023, the Astros won the division for the third straight season, winning 90 games in the process. Their path to the AL West pennant was helped by a late-season collapse from the Rangers, who then had the last laugh in the playoffs. Their offense featured long-time Astros in José Altuve and Alex Bregman, alongside younger sluggers like Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker.
As a team, they were top five in batting average, on-base percentage, RBIs and strikeout rate.
The Astros offense revolves around Yordan Alvarez, as he’s quickly cemented himself as one of baseball’s best hitters. Alvarez has posted 3 consecutive seasons of a 135 OPS+ mark (100 is league average) and 30+ home runs.
Altuve is still a well-above average second basemen in today’s game, but for the first time since his rookie season in 2011 (excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 season), he played under 120 games. He’s fully healthy heading into spring training but the Astros will depend on his availability at the top of the lineup.
Looking at the starting rotation, 2023 didn’t go as the Astros would’ve liked. Ace Framber Valdez took a small step back last season after a breakout 2022. He posted a 3.45 ERA—still solid but a sizable decrease from his 2.82 mark in 2022. He also imploded in the postseason, recording a 9.00 ERA and receiving the loss in all three of his postseason starts.
Elsewhere in the rotation, RHP Lance McCullers Jr. missed the entire 2023 season due a torn right flexor tendon and RHP Jose Urquidy suffered a drop in form, even getting demoted to the bullpen. Young flamethrower Hunter Brown got his first full season in the bigs and showed flashes of future starting potential, but ultimately his ERA ballooned to 5.
The Astros should maintain their dominance in 2024 and their rotation appears improved. They still have Justin Verlander, who at the age of 40, has aged like fine wine. As their young arms receive more experience, the pitching staff is bound to take a step forward. The Astros bullpen did lose Hector Neris, but added dominant closer Josh Hader in free agency on a 5-year, $95 million dollar deal. The offense remains the same apart from Michael Brantley’s retirement and Martin Maldonado’s departure in free agency, neither of whom contributed much in 2023.
They can win the division with relative ease on the back of an overwhelming offense and if the rotation bounces back, the Astros dominant run will continue.
Seattle Mariners
2023 Record: 88-74
My 2024 Projection: 90-72
After narrowly missing out on the playoffs last year, the Mariners’ always-active GM Jerry Dipoto has made a few trades to shake up the roster.
He sent 2021 Cy Young award winner Robbie Ray to the Giants in exchange for OF Mitch Haniger and RHP Anthony Desclafani. He also moved 3B Eugenio Suarez to the Diamondbacks in exchange for C Seby Zavala and RHP Carlos Vargas. To cap it off, the M’s also acquired INF Jorge Polanco from the Twins in exchange for Desclafani, Justin Topa and 2 minor leaguers.
In the short term, Ray was expected to miss the beginning of the season anyway while he recovers from Tommy John surgery. With this trade, the Mariners welcomed back fan-favorite Mitch Haniger, who endeared himself to Seattle for his production and heroics between 2017-2022. As recently as 2021, he swatted 39 home runs and an even 100 RBIs.
The Mariners will be a highly competitive ballclub as long as the lineup provides some run support for their great rotation.
Julio Rodriguez had a great overall year in 2023 but his slow start correlated to the Mariners’ early season struggles. His eventual .275/.333/.485 slashline was by far the team’s best, but the Mariners will need him humming from Opening Day alongside fellow sluggers Cal Raleigh and newly-signed Mitch Garver.
The Mariners also added OF Luke Raley via trade and 3B Luis Urias, who the Red Sox non-tendered, to supplement Seattle’s depth.
The offense lost a couple of key pieces, however, when the team traded away OF Jarred Kelenic and lost OF Teoscar Hernandez to the Dodgers in free agency. Kelenic finally looked to have hit his big-league stride after years as a highly touted prospect. He slowed down a bit as the season progressed, before breaking his foot after kicking a cooler out of frustration. Teoscar offered his usual power and now the Mariners lose his middle-of-the-order bat.
Their pitching staff, the team’s strength, consists of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Castillo and Kirby both had a great 2023, posting sub 3.50-ERAs. Gilbert had a fine season himself, while Miller and Woo will have to establish their place in the rotation in spring training.
The Mariners have continued to build on their rebuild after a lackluster 2010s. Their chance to compete for a pennant is as great as ever and a great pitching staff combined with improved offense will put them in contention for a wild card spot at least.
Texas Rangers
2023 Record: 90-72
My 2024 Projection: 84-78
The Rangers are fresh off a World Series title after failing to record a winning season since 2016. Their big 2022 free agent signings of infielders Corey Seager and Marcus Semien played a huge factor in their success, alongside young stars Jonah Heim, Josh Jung and Evan Carter.
Seager had back-to-back All-Star seasons, and in 2023, was the AL MVP runner-up to Shohei Ohtani. In only 119 games, he toyed with opposing pitchers and posted an OPS over 1.000 while leading the AL in doubles. He is the spark plug of this Rangers offense and showcased it throughout the playoffs. In the Fall Classic, Seager crushed three home runs in five games and was awarded World Series MVP.
Semien had a great 2023 as well, finishing third in MVP voting right behind Seager. Semien led the American league in hits this past season and posted great power numbers for a second baseman. Semien is also a workhorse, missing just one game in the past three seasons.
On the pitching side, the Rangers rotation is currently battered with injuries. When fully healthy, their rotation of Jacob DeGrom, Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney and Tyler Mahle would be one of the best in baseball.
Unfortunately, both DeGrom and Scherzer will miss at least half of the season due to injury. DeGrom underwent Tommy John surgery after a season-ending elbow injury early on in 2023, and Scherzer is rehabbing a herniated disc. At his peak, DeGrom was one of baseball’s most dominant pitchers, but injuries have left him limited. Scherzer was among that same group of dominant pitchers, but age and injuries have slowed down the surefire Hall-of-Famer.
Eovaldi has experienced his fair share of injuries as well, including two Tommy John surgeries earlier in his career and recent layoffs with elbow and shoulder pain. Mahle underwent Tommy John surgery last season as well and he won’t be available until after the trade deadline.
If the Rangers can re-sign Jordan Montgomery who was a vital piece for them down the stretch after being acquired from the Cardinals, they’ll be in a much better position. If not, this rotation lacks depth to begin the season and they may fall behind in making a postseason push.
The bullpen is also a major concern. Outside of Josh Sborz and José Leclerc, the Rangers lack high-leverage arms. Even Leclerc was shaky at times, including a blown save against the Astros in ALCS Game 5, when Altuve hit a go-ahead three-run homer in the ninth inning.
The Rangers have a surplus of major league talent but concerns regarding the rotation and bullpen will ultimately hold them back. The Rangers had a team ERA of 4.28 in 2023 which was in the bottom half of teams in baseball. Even more concerning, their bullpen put up a 4.77 ERA, the league’s sixth-worst, near teams like the Angels, White Sox and Nationals. Their pitching struggles will only worsen as they continue to deal with injuries and inconsistency and they won’t repeat their magical 2023 World Series run.
Los Angeles Angels
2023 Record: 73-89
My 2024 Projection: 79-83
The Angels are in a weird spot. They just lost Shohei Ohtani to the Dodgers in the biggest free agency signing in baseball history. However, they still have household names in Anaheim like Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon.
Trout is still an elite bat, but has faded from his peak, MVP-type numbers. He’s had serious injuries as well, missing half of last season and 126 games in 2021. Injuries have also prevented Rendon’s contract from offering good value and whenever he does take the field, his power seems to have evaporated along with his ability to make consistent contact.
The rotation is a major question mark heading into spring training. The rotation of Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval, Tyler Anderson, Griffin Canning and Chase Silseth is the same squad they carried last season and produced bottom-of-the-barrel results. They were a bottom 10 team in ERA, hits, home runs and walks, playing a large role in their fourth-place divisional finish.
Anderson seemed to have revived his career with the Dodgers in 2022 after posting a 2.57 ERA in 178.2 innings, but after signing a three-year deal with the Angels this past offseason, his ERA skyrocketed to 5.43. Sandoval had a similarly impressive 2022 as Anderson, posting a 2.91 ERA, but in 2023, it jumped to 4.11. If those two can return to form, alongside a breakout season from Detmers, Canning or Silseth, the Angels should win more games in 2024.
Position players like Taylor Ward and Brandon Drury have been quietly productive for the Angels, but after a surprising 2022 in which Ward contributed an .833 OPS, that mark dropped almost 70 points in 2023. Drury also missed time due to injury but still popped 26 home runs, good enough for second on the team.
The Angels did improve their bullpen with free agent signings Robert Stephenson and Matt Moore. In Stephenson’s 2023 season with the Rays, he seemed to have turned his career around. In 28 innings with Tampa Bay after he was traded from the Pirates, he posted a 2.35 ERA backed up by a 2.45 FIP, or fielding independent pitching, which measures a pitcher’s effectiveness at preventing home runs and causing strikeouts. Moore was arguably one of the Angels best relievers from last season, as he posted a 2.66 ERA with the team before being waived in a last-ditch August salary dump. The Angels still have Carlos Estevez as well, who notched 31 saves last year.
The team will also home prospects Logan O’Hoppe, Nolan Schanuel and Zach Neto — all of whom made their big league debuts in 2023 — can continue to develop under new manager Ron Washington in a new era of Angels baseball.
The rotation should improve under new pitching coach Barry Enright but if the Halos can’t keep the home runs and walks in check, their ceiling is limited. Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon will report to spring training fully healthy, but the Angels will be awfully careful in how they handle their stars’ workloads. If the Angels remain healthy, they’ll surpass my projected win total and possibly compete for a wild card spot. But being realistic, the Angels will deal with setbacks throughout the season.
Oakland Athletics
2023 Record: 50-112
My 2024 Projection: 45-117
It’s sad to see what the Oakland A’s have become. With owner John Fisher wanting to move the A’s to Las Vegas, he stripped their once talented roster to the bone to reduce payroll. The A’s were playoff contenders as recently as 2021, but the 2024 season looks to a repeat of last season’s disaster.
The A’s roster is full of players most teams would have on their Triple-A affiliates. The only All-Star on last year’s team was Brent Rooker who put up a great season, but outside of him, only Ryan Noda posted an OPS+ above 100, or league average, in a qualifying amount of games. The lack of offense combined with the worst pitching staff in baseball produced a negative 339 run differential last season, by far the worst mark in the league.
Outside of Paul Blackburn, the rest of the rotation looks grim. They limped to a 5.48 ERA and not a single starter pitched to a sub-4.3 ERA. One intriguing arm is Mason Miller, who debuted in 2023 and impressed in his cameo. His season was cut short by an arm injury but he’ll hopefully have a full season in 2024.
Offensively, there are a couple of former prospects that have turned in quietly productive seasons. In 69 games last season, second baseman Zach Gelof had an .841 OPS and is projected to be at the top of the A’s lineup. Ryan Noda has also flashed success with a .229/.365/.406 slashline, but dealt with huge strikeout numbers.
Overall, there isn’t much to say about this team heading into spring training. When the A’s are competitive, Oakland fans have been revered for their energy and support for their team, but there’s been a lack of reciprocation from ownership.
Hopefully the move to Las Vegas will make the franchise more competitive, but as of now, Oakland is a baseball wasteland.