Wild Card Weekend X-Factors

Christmas may have been three weeks ago, but not for NFL fans with the 2024 playoffs kicking off this Saturday. 32 teams started the race for the Lombardi in September, and only 14 remain, ready to enter the final stretch of the marathon that is the NFL season.

The margins of the game of inches are now even closer, with rosters stacked with Pro-Bowlers and the league’s best coaches going at it, and thus, let’s delve into non-QB players in every matchup who could be key difference makers, or X-Factors, in getting their team the win and a step closer to a Super Bowl victory.

Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans: Texans running back Devin Singletary

The weekend’s first playoff matchup sees an ascending Houston Texans team face the battle-tested Cleveland Browns, who, despite now fielding their fourth quarterback and fourth and fifth-string tackles in the midst of an avalanche of injuries, have still soared to an impressive 11-6 record off the back of a historic defensive season (the Browns defense ranks second in expected points added at 105.92).

On the other sideline, Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has been a firecracker, ranking eighth in passing yards (4,108) and sixth in passer rating (100.8) among all quarterbacks. Yet while Stroud has been sensational, this is his first playoff game against one of the most dominant defenses of the decade, making it likely that the Texans will look to protect him through the run game.

Enter Texans running back Devin Singletary, who’s quietly had a solid year in Houston as the Texans’ lead back, rushing for 898 yards at a respectable 4.2 yards per carry. An undersized back with average athleticism, he wins with tremendous patience and vision behind the line of scrimmage, not always hitting triples or home runs but almost always getting on base.

Here he is, for example, showing good patience and processing to read the play side linebacker crashing inside on an inside zone run and bouncing the play outside for a 24-yard gain in Week 17′s game versus the Tennessee Titans.

A big Singletary performance would go a long way toward simplifying the game for C.J. Stroud, as it would set up the play-action game and limit obvious passing downs for the rookie quarterback, yet leaning on the former Buffalo Bill may also just be the best way to attack the Browns defense — while the unit is tied for first in yards per play allowed (4.6), it ranks 20th best in yards allowed per rush (4.3). Look for the Texans to lean on Singletary to protect Stroud and take advantage of the Browns’ exposable run defense.

Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert

Before the season, the prospect of a Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs playoff game would have broken the internet. The Chiefs dynasty facing the AFC’s newest Super Bowl contender. Tyreek Hill returning to Arrowhead for his revenge game. Two of the game’s best offensive minds in Andy Reid and Mike McDaniel going at it.

Fast forward to the playoffs, and now we have both teams facing off in Wild Card Weekend, with the Chiefs offense looking like a shell of its former self and the Dolphins’ once-stacked roster deteriorating by the minute with injuries.

It’s tempting to label all-world Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill as the X-Factor here, as he’s by far the Dolphins’ most valuable player and returning to a former home where he put up 6,630 yards and 62 touchdowns over six seasons, yet the fact that this game will be played in potentially record-breaking low temperatures (the “feels like” temperature is expected to be around -20 to -30 degrees at kickoff) indicate it could be more of a run-fest than fans might anticipate.

We thus turn to Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert, who has been a star in his own right this season, ranking first among all backs in rush touchdowns (18) and tenth best in rush yards (1,012) at an impressive 4.8 yards per carry. Mostert is a tremendous athlete and processor who, despite having suffered two high ankle sprains, three knee sprains, and a torn meniscus throughout his career, still looks like one of the most explosive players in the league at 31 years old.

Watch him in this fourth quarter rep in Miami’s Week 12 Black Friday matchup with the New York Jets, for example, where he shows the high-level processing to read through his keys on an outsize zone run, cutting back with tremendous foot quickness before exploding past the Jets’ entire defense for the score.

In a game that’s expected to be played in blizzard-like conditions, running the ball will be paramount, and thus Mostert should have a big role. He’s coming off a two-week absence from knee and ankle injuries, but the team expects him to be fresh and ready to go on Sunday. If he can help the Dolphins establish the run against a Chiefs defense which ranks 25th in yards allowed per attempt, the Dolphins could control the game well enough to leave the blizzard in Arrowhead with a win.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills: Steelers outside linebacker Alex Highsmith

Despite looking dead in the water in Week 15 after three straight losses, the Pittsburgh Steelers turned things around during the home stretch of the regular season, winning three straight to sneak into the playoffs as a seventh seed. They face a hot Buffalo Bills team which, despite being labeled by the media as vastly inferior to the Bills teams of years past, finished the year fifth in total yards per play on offense (5.7) and fourth best in yards allowed on defense (5.1).

The Bills playing at home coming off an emotional victory over the rival Miami Dolphins make them heavy favorites. Yet when you play Josh Allen, you always have a chance. For as good as the Buffalo quarterback has been this year, ranking fourth in passing yards (4,306) and sixth in touchdowns among all quarterbacks (29), he’s also been a turnover machine, tossing the second most interceptions (18) and losing seven fumbles.

Making Josh Allen uncomfortable will thus be paramount, and this is where Alex Highsmith comes in. With three-time All-Pro outside linebacker TJ Watt out with an MCL sprain, somebody on the defensive line will have to step up, and there’s no better candidate than the fourth-year rusher. The former Charlotte 49er has developed into a force on the defensive line for the yellow and black, recently earning a 68-million-dollar extension.

Highsmith is undersized for an EDGE defender at 6′4, 242 pounds, yet he wins with extraordinary quickness and bend around the edge. Watch him on this Week 13 rep against Cardinals tackle D.J. Humphries, where he explodes off the line, leaving Humphries unable to match him, then shows great bend and speed around the arc to reach Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray for the sack.

Highsmith has played second fiddle to Watt throughout his time in Pittsburgh, yet if he can step up and put the front on his back to make Josh Allen uncomfortable and help force a turnover or two, the Steelers D may give their offense just enough opportunities to keep the game close and potentially steal a win.

Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys: Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed

No two teams facing off this weekend could be more different from one another than the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys. On one sideline, you have an experienced Cowboys team in the final stages of its current build with a veteran quarterback, a fourth-year All-Pro level receiver reaching his peak, and a tightly-knit defense that has wrecked the NFL for three years straight.

On the other, you have the Green Bay Packers, the youngest team in the league, fielding a first-year starter at quarterback, receiver and tight end rooms filled with rookies and second-year players and a young defense that has yet to find its footing. This Packers team is an exciting but mostly inexperienced group, and it will need another of its young stars to continue to step up to have any shot at a victory: rookie receiver Jayden Reed.

With the rest of the Packers’ receiving corps battling injuries — Christian Watson dealing with a hamstring problem and Romeo Doubs coming off a hospitalization after a scary chest injury against the Chicago Bears — it will be up to Reed to build off his career performance against the Bears last week and continue to step up as Jordan Love’s No. 1 option.

The Michigan State product has been reliable from the slot for the Packers, leading the team in receiving yards (793) and yards per game (46.9). For a rookie, he’s shown high football IQ in his route running, displaying the ability to set up corners, and the athleticism to stretch the field both vertically and horizontally. Watch him on this second-quarter rep versus the Minnesota Vikings two weeks ago, for example, where he shows the speed to threaten Vikings corner Akayleb Evans vertically, then displaying the processing and short-area quickness to stem into his leverage and then quickly burst outward at the break point to gain separation on a deep out route for a 15-yard gain.

If Reed can continue his hot run and help mask his fellow receivers’ banged-up state, ascending passer Jordan Love may have just enough to work with to go blow-for-blow with the Cowboys and send America’s team home early for the 28th consecutive year.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions: Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald

Rams vs. Lions promises to by far be the most cinematic matchup of Wild Card Weekend with quarterbacks Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff both facing their former teams. Stafford returns to Ford Field with the Super Bowl ring he never got close to sniffing in Detroit. Jared Goff takes the field hungry to prove to former head coach Sean McVay and the Rams organization that he has what it takes to lead a Super Bowl-winning team.

Yet, in addition to the game’s storytelling implications for both offenses, the matchup promises to be a points fest as it sees two of the league’s best offenses go at it, with both units ranking in the top ten in yards per play and expected points added. On the flip side, the Rams and Lions’ defenses have been unimpressive at best, with both failing to crack the top half of the league in yards allowed and points per game, thus setting up a wonderful duel between Stafford and Goff and their respective offenses.

While the whole nation focuses on the offenses, the game will be decided by whatever defense steps up at the right time, and I have my money on Los Angeles because of one man: Aaron Donald. He may be having a quiet season by his standards, but make no mistake about it, Donald is still one of the five best defensive players in the league, able to beat any offensive lineman with uncanny athleticism and pass-rushing technique.

Here he is playing around with prospective Hall of Famer Zack Martin in this first quarter rep during the Rams’ Week 8 game against the Cowboys. Donald sets Martin up with a swat-speed move inside before using Martin’s leverage against him and euro-stepping back outside for a free run at quarterback Dak Prescott.

The Lions offensive line is one of the better units in the NFL, ranking fourth-best in sacks allowed (31), yet their weakest player happens to be fourth-year guard Jonah Jackson, whom Donald will be seeing plenty of. If Donald can put the Rams defense on his back and roll back the years to his playoff form from two years ago, the Rams will likely leave Detroit with a win.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin

In what a month ago would have seemed like a sure-fire win for Philadelphia, Monday Night Football’s Eagles vs. Buccaneers matchup could be much closer than previously anticipated, with the Eagles on a downward spiral and the Buccaneers getting hot at the right time, having won five of their last six.

The Eagles have suffered greatly from their own success in 2022, with their new coordinators failing to live up to Jonathan Gannon and Shane Steichen’s masterful work last year and the roster, particularly the defense, now regressing after losing most of its linebacking corps to free agency and the corners losing their step with age.

On the other sideline, you have a frisky Buccaneers team that surpassed pre-season expectations to win the NFC South title and has quarterback Baker Mayfield playing the best football of his pro career — his 4,044 pass yards and 28 touchdowns are both career highs.

With the Eagles’ offense likely to get theirs due to the talent on their roster and the fact that the Buccaneers defense has been average at best on the year, the Bucs’ key to victory will likely be with its offense keeping pace with its counterpart.

This is where Chris Godwin comes in, who being more of the underneath-intermediate threat in the Buccaneers offense, could have a field day picking on the Eagles’ second-string corner and linebacking corps, all of which have massively disappointed this year.

Godwin may be the 1B to perennial Pro-Bowler Mike Evans’ 1A in Tampa Bay, yet he’s still a formidable option who would be a wide receiver one on plenty of NFL teams. His nuanced route running and short-area quickness make him a devastating matchup against slot corners and safeties, as seen on this fourth-quarter rep of the Bucs’ game against the San Francisco 49ers where he easily beats 49ers standout corner Charvarius Route on a dig route.

With the Eagles’ number one corner Darius Slay on Mike Evans, struggling veteran James Bradberry will likely travel most with Godwin, a matchup he could feast on all game. When he lines up farther inside, picking on Shaquille Leonard and Zach Cunningham could allow the Bucs to march down the field and keep up with the Eagles.